{"id":225157,"date":"2026-04-09T18:20:09","date_gmt":"2026-04-09T18:20:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/225157\/"},"modified":"2026-04-09T18:20:09","modified_gmt":"2026-04-09T18:20:09","slug":"analysis-of-south-floridas-investment-sales-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/225157\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysis of South Florida\u2019s Investment Sales Market"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Ben Mandell is biding his time.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Over the past three or four years, his firm purchased one property, and it was a distressed deal. Although the real estate industry expected a more favorable investment market this year, those hopes were crushed.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cA lot of people seeing the macro market now are thinking differently,\u201d Mandell of Miami-based Tricera Capital said. \u201cAs far as acquisitions are concerned, we are on the sidelines but looking at when we should get back on the court.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>While many brokers and investors on the ground say it doesn\u2019t feel like South Florida\u2019s commercial real estate deal flow has cooled, there is definitely a chill in the air.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Across the region, commercial real estate deals have slowed this year. The market is responding to and opting to wait out the turbulent geopolitical landscape marked by the Iran War, skyrocketing oil prices, ambiguity over tariffs, dimmer expectations for interest rate cuts and pressure on property values.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>All of that creates uncertainty with operating costs, said Miami-based lender BridgeInvest\u2019s Alex Horn. \u201cBecause of this uncertainty, it creates hesitance from investors from leaning in on the investment. We are seeing that across the board.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>First quarter commercial deal volume was down 23 percent from the same time last year, according to CoStar Group. Although quarterly data can be choppy and skewed by a single large sale, the data also shows deal volume in the first three months of the year was down 11 percent from the first quarter average dating back to 2017.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The slippage marks a delay in the much anticipated market reset since rates increased, with interest and cap rates still elevated, continuing deal paralysis for some investors and sellers.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt was, \u2018Survive \u2019til \u201925,\u2019 and we are here at the other end [of the second quarter] of 2026 and people are saying, \u2018Now what?\u2019\u201d Horn said. \u201c2025 was supposed to be the year we just grit our teeth. Now 2026 is in a similar sort of vein.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>South Florida is still a magnet for investors and businesses drawn to its tax-friendly climate and growth as an office hub, but even this real estate haven is catching its breath. While the tri-county area is resilient, this dip in activity proves that the region is still susceptible to global economic shifts and a shaky geopolitical landscape.<\/p>\n<p>Still, many investors are adjusting and buying, and some asset classes are feeling the slowdown more than others. A camp of brokers vehemently downplayed the data showing a drop in investment sales, insisting that deal activity has actually picked up for them.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cTimes of uncertainty may make people pause. I don\u2019t think that Florida is feeling that,\u201d Marcus &amp; Millichap\u2019s Douglas Mandel said, adding he closed more deals this year than in the first quarter of 2025. \u201cThere\u2019s a lot of capital still pouring into Florida.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Tricera\u2019s Mandell countered that financials really have to pencil for him to pursue a deal. He\u2019s keeping an eye out for such deals but in the meantime prefers to wait out the turbulence.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cRight now, it is still difficult to get acquisitions over the finish line even in Miami,\u201d he said, \u201cunless there is a splash to it, which is few and far between.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Buyers in, sellers out\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Investor confidence is wavering as the Iran War adds a layer of global unpredictability.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe war right now is creating hesitation [about] are we lowering interest rates or are we even raising them again,\u201d Kodsi said.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The drop in sales volume is most pronounced in multifamily, data shows. First quarter multifamily deal volume totaled nearly $750 million, down 26 percent from the same period last year, and a 16 percent drop from the long-term first quarter average since 2017, CoStar shows.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>This comes as the asset class is feeling the sting from an <a href=\"https:\/\/therealdeal.com\/miami\/2025\/10\/31\/are-developers-overbuilding-apartments-in-south-florida\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">oversupply<\/a>. Developers seized on the influx of newcomers in the first three years after the pandemic\u2019s onset, leading to hefty deliveries in recent years. A record <a href=\"https:\/\/therealdeal.com\/miami\/2025\/01\/24\/after-record-south-florida-rental-completions-lease-ups-slow\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">18,600 new units<\/a> hit the market in 2024; 20 percent of those apartments weren\u2019t leased that year. Amid slower leasing, the average asking rent has decreased and concessions increased, though fewer recent construction starts are expected to alleviate this.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>For some of Kodsi\u2019s Class A, well-located apartment complexes, capitalization rates are still about 5 percent, he said.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf you are buying at a 5 percent cap rate and borrowing at 4.5 interest but add all the fees, you are not getting the benefit of financing,\u201d he said.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Higher cap rates imply lower values, which could mean a better deal for buyers but not for sellers. The bid-ask gap, or the delta between the higher prices sellers expect for their properties and the lower prices buyers are willing to or can pay, remains.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The outcome: Many buyers are still in the market but sellers aren\u2019t willing to divest for less than what they expect for their property. Kodsi is frequently approached by investors interested in his multifamily complex in Broward County and another one near Orlando, but he\u2019s turning them down.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe need cap rates to drop and interest rates to drop, which would give us more value. That\u2019s really our biggest hesitation,\u201d said Kodsi, head of development firm Royal Palm Companies. \u201cMost groups are just holding on, waiting for interest rates to drop.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>On the retail side, roughly $605.7 million in sales closed in the first quarter, down 16 percent from last year\u2019s first quarter and 11 percent from the long-term first quarter average, according to CoStar.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Although leasing and rents are strong, the lack of interest rate relief is still freezing out leveraged investors, leaving only cash buyers and generational buyers in the game, said Gabriel Navarro of Pinecrest-based retail investment firm MMG Equity Partners.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe bid-ask spread is wide because of where rents are sitting today and the strength of retail,\u201d he said. The bid-ask gap \u201cis probably 15 percent today. Both sides are being rational. It\u2019s just that they can\u2019t agree.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Office sales fared better, closing out the quarter at roughly $836.5 million, 10 percent less than last year\u2019s first quarter but 16 percent over the long-term first-quarter average for South Florida, CoStar shows.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Sellers have had to part with properties for two reasons: Either equity partners are seeking an exit, or the landlords can\u2019t refinance maturing debt, experts said.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>In some of this year\u2019s discounted trades, Chicago-based flex office provider Expansive parted with the five-story Edgewater office building for $19 million, or <a href=\"https:\/\/therealdeal.com\/miami\/2026\/04\/02\/valoro-capital-edgewater-valoro-capital-buys-miami-office-building-at-discount\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">$2 million<\/a> less than it had paid in 2019. In February, the <a href=\"https:\/\/therealdeal.com\/magazine\/november-2024\/the-ground-game\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Shidler Group<\/a> surrendered the ground lease and leasehold interest in lieu of foreclosure for a Boynton Village apartment complex to Harbor Group International. The deal was valued at <a href=\"https:\/\/therealdeal.com\/miami\/2026\/02\/25\/shidler-surrenders-rentals-dermot-buys-nearby-complex\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">$79 million<\/a>, the same amount as the loan Harbor Group had provided in 2021.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>But much of the distress has worked its way through the market since interest rate increases started in 2022, meaning fewer sellers are offloading their properties due to debt woes, said Alex Karakhanian, who leads Miami-based Lndmrk Development. This also explains the drop in investment sales.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cFrankly, no one\u2019s really selling,\u201d Karakhanian said. \u201cThe properties that needed to be sold or had to be sold due to debt volatility or issues with [refinancing] your debt \u2026 that kind of got cleared out over the last couple of years.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>For buyers willing to search for a deal, the current climate isn\u2019t all bad. North Miami-based IMC Equity Group, for example, is looking for properties with cap rates higher than the interest.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf I buy at a 9 percent cap and borrow at 7 percent, and three years from now rates go down to 6 percent or 5 percent, I refinance,\u201d said IMC\u2019s Carlos Segrera. \u201cIt doesn\u2019t bother me as much. A quarter basis points up or down, we adapt. I just look for a different price.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>In January, IMC bought a Princeton apartment complex for<a href=\"https:\/\/therealdeal.com\/miami\/2026\/01\/30\/marlin-spring-sells-rentals-to-imc-equity-ata-24-discount\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"> $33.5 million<\/a>, a 24 percent discount from the property\u2019s last price in 2021.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>IMC joins a camp of investors that are not factoring more expensive financing, higher oil prices and the Iran War into their decision-making. While gasoline prices are up, the increases will settle at some point, Segrera relayed.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIn no way we are saying, \u2018I feel the world is going upside down, I am not going to buy,\u2019\u201d Segrera said. \u201cSomething is always going to happen in the world. I can\u2019t do anything about that.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Bright spots\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Investors able to close commercial purchases without hunting for higher cap rates or distress are still in the mix, though their deals are sporadic.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Those buyers are well-established South Florida players who have an unwavering commitment to the region. Moishe Mana \u2013\u2013 the biggest landlord in downtown Miami who plans to renovate aging buildings and turn the area into a campus-like hub connecting tech firms and entrepreneurs from North America and Latin America \u2013\u2013 grew his holdings, paying <a href=\"https:\/\/therealdeal.com\/miami\/2026\/03\/04\/pccp-cp-group-sell-one-downtown-to-moishe-mana-for-110m\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">$110 million<\/a> for the One Downtown office tower.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Billionaire Ken Griffin, who\u2019s also been an aggressive buyer of residential and commercial properties in South Florida since moving his firms Citadel and Citadel Securities to Miami in 2022, partnered with Goldman Properties on the <a href=\"https:\/\/therealdeal.com\/miami\/2026\/01\/14\/ken-griffin-goldman-buy-545wyn-wynwood-office-building\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">$181 million<\/a> purchase of Wynwood\u2019s 545Wyn office building.<\/p>\n<p>In another bright spot in the market, industrial investment sales have fared the best this year. Deal volume hit $824.4 million, 14 percent higher than in the first quarter of last year and 34 percent higher than the first quarter average from 2017, CoStar data shows.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Industrial properties often have triple net leases, meaning tenants are on the hook for taxes, insurance and maintenance expenses, said broker Miguel Pinto, founder of Miami-based Apex Capital Realty.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe banks I am talking to all love industrial,\u201d Pinto said. \u201cWe are putting out a lot of transactions and closing hard, but all are on the industrial side.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>In the biggest industrial deal this year, Kurv Industrial, formerly Bridge Industrial, dropped <a href=\"https:\/\/therealdeal.com\/miami\/2026\/04\/02\/kurv-industrial-drops-220-million-on-pompano-beach-complex\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">$219.7 million<\/a> to acquire an 820,000-square-foot warehouse portfolio in Pompano Beach. Kurv financed the purchase with a $154.8 million loan.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Outlook<\/p>\n<p>The exact extent of geopolitical pressures\u2019 effect on commercial deals is unknown. Much of the first quarter activity was deals investors had been working on last year, but closings trickled into this year, brokers said.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe summer is going to be really telling,\u201d Horn said.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Several factors are at play.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>After the Federal Reserve left the benchmark rate unchanged this year, talk ensued that it could eventually increase the rate as inflation and oil prices remain elevated. Yet, investors and brokers also are betting on reprieve in light of Fed Chair Jerome Powell\u2019s ending term, with his replacement Kevin Warsh already having expressed his wish to cut the rate.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Because 10-year Treasury yields are elevated, investors also are more likely to deploy capital in much riskier real estate only if it comes with higher returns.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWith all this market uncertainty, people are saying they can get a good return on a low-risk 10-year Treasury, therefore everything else has to pay more than that,\u201d Horn said.<\/p>\n<p>Gregory Matus, of brokerage Franklin Street, said a commercial deals pickup in South Florida also depends on the housing market.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>When housing \u201crecovers fully, South Florida will be guns blazing,\u201d he said. \u201cWe need to get past this war, and we need the interest rates to come down.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>On Wednesday, the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire. Whether it holds could prove pivotal for commercial deals.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s hard enough to predict what is going to happen to market dynamics in a normal environment than in an irregular environment,\u201d Horn said. \u201cEveryone is waiting for the dust to settle before investors make decisions. It\u2019s having ripple effects throughout the entire industry.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\tRead more<br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"BlogrollPost\" href=\"https:\/\/therealdeal.com\/national\/2026\/04\/05\/impacts-of-iran-war-on-real-estate\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"200\" height=\"133\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Impacts-of-Iran-War-on-Real-Estate--200x133.jpg\" class=\"FeaturedImage_image wp-post-image\" alt=\"President Donald Trump\" loading=\"lazy\"\/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<p>Real estate feels the impact of Iran war<\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Ben Mandell is biding his time.\u00a0 Over the past three or four years, his firm purchased one property,&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":225158,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[225,227,226,101714],"class_list":["post-225157","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-hialeah","tag-hialeah","tag-hialeah-headlines","tag-hialeah-news","tag-south-florida-investment-sales"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/225157","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=225157"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/225157\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/225158"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=225157"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=225157"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=225157"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}