{"id":226541,"date":"2026-04-10T17:16:10","date_gmt":"2026-04-10T17:16:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/226541\/"},"modified":"2026-04-10T17:16:10","modified_gmt":"2026-04-10T17:16:10","slug":"salazar-remains-favored-in-floridas-27th-despite-shift","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/226541\/","title":{"rendered":"Salazar remains favored in Florida\u2019s 27th despite shift"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"U.S.<\/p>\n

U.S. Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar speaks during a joint press conference with Reps. Mario Diaz-Balart and Carlos Gimenez in Doral on Jan. 3<\/p>\n

PHOTO BY AL DIAZ<\/p>\n

adiaz@miamiherald.com<\/p>\n

When I was a political consultant, the best advice I would give any candidate was to run like you\u2019re 10 points behind.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m thinking about that because this week, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report changed U.S. Rep. Maria Salazar\u2019s congressional district in Miami-Dade County from \u201csolid Republican\u201d to \u201clikely Republican.\u201d<\/p>\n

That\u2019s a modest shift. Salazar remains the clear favorite in District 27, which includes downtown Miami, Coral Gables and Pinecrest. But incumbents who don\u2019t take modest shifts seriously end up writing concession speeches.<\/p>\n

Salazar has reason to feel good about her chances of reelection this November. In 2022, she beat Democratic state Sen. Annette Taddeo by 15 points<\/a>. And in 2024, Salazar won by 20 points<\/a> over former Miami-Dade School Board member Lucia Baez-Geller, a Democrat, in a district President Donald Trump carried by only 15 points.<\/p>\n

Comfortable margins of victory like that usually buy breathing room, but not in today\u2019s political climate.<\/p>\n

As Erin Covey, the U.S. House editor at the Cook Political Report told me, \u201cRecent elections in Florida \u2014 from the Miami mayoral race to state House specials in Palm Beach \u2014 are all pointing in the same direction. Even accounting for lower turnout in special elections, there\u2019s clear evidence of erosion in voter sentiment toward Trump.\u201d<\/p>\n

Covey is referring to the December runoff for Miami mayor, when Eileen Higgins defeated Trump-endorsed candidate Emilio Gonzalez, and a race in Palm Beach County, where Democrat Emily Gregory flipped a Republican seat in House District 87. Both races offer a snapshot of voter behavior.<\/p>\n

That doesn\u2019t mean Salazar\u2019s district is slipping away. But Republicans shouldn\u2019t treat it as a safe seat.<\/p>\n

Democrats certainly are focused on the race. This week, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee issued a press release about the ratings change saying that alarm bells were \u201cblaring\u201d for Salazar.<\/p>\n

Salazar still has a lot in her favor, including a track record of overperforming in her reelections.<\/p>\n

But she has also been criticized recently by some fellow Republicans for her bipartisan immigration bill, the Dignity Act, which they have labeled as mass amnesty. Salazar has forcefully rejected<\/a> that claim.<\/p>\n

She also has a potential Democratic opponent, retired CBS Miami news anchor Eliott Rodriguez, who could make this election closer than 2022 or 2024.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat makes this notable is that both candidates are former news anchors and Cuban-American \u2014 a contrast we haven\u2019t really seen before,\u201d Covey said. \u201cEarly polling suggests that with his name ID, Rodriguez starts out with a meaningful advantage in the primary.\u201d<\/p>\n

Rodriguez still needs to win his primary. Until then, a general election match up is purely conjecture.<\/p>\n

Nevertheless, the dynamic is worth considering. Two candidates on opposite sides of the aisle with similar backgrounds levels the playing field in ways the GOP may not have been expecting. Both Salazar and Rodriguez have name recognition.<\/p>\n

Florida politics has a way of humbling even the most seasoned candidates. It wasn\u2019t long ago that Democrats thought Miami-Dade County was a stronghold. Republicans dismantled that assumption by investing in off-cycle voter engagement and then turning voters out on Election Day.<\/p>\n

But political gains are never permanent. Each cycle requires the same level of investment if the GOP wants to keep Miami-Dade red.<\/p>\n

For Salazar, the rating shift should sharpen her focus on the issues that voters care about such as affordability. Campaigns that are disciplined in their focus tend to win.<\/p>\n

Salazar\u2019s campaign sent me a statement saying that she \u201chas been re-elected by double digits in the last two cycles, demonstrating her understanding of the district\u2019s needs and her unwavering commitment to meeting them.\u201d<\/p>\n

We\u2019ll find out in November if voters agree. As Covey noted, \u201cDemocrats have a better shot at making this race competitive than they did in 2022 or 2024. At the same time, Democrats have a recent history of underestimating Republican strength in these kinds of districts.\u201d<\/p>\n

Republicans should take note. And Salazar should remember that the voters who sent her to Congress in the last cycle aren\u2019t obliged to do it again. She should be campaigning like she\u2019s 10 points down.<\/p>\n

Mary Anna Mancuso is a member of the Miami Herald Editorial Board. Her email: mmancuso@miamiherald.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"U.S. Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar speaks during a joint press conference with Reps. Mario Diaz-Balart and Carlos Gimenez…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":226542,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[123,125,124],"class_list":["post-226541","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-miami","tag-miami","tag-miami-headlines","tag-miami-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/226541","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=226541"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/226541\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/226542"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=226541"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=226541"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=226541"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}