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<\/a><\/p>\nGiving extra weight to older voters usually helps Republicans, which means the Democratic numbers in this poll might be a little low. Still, this small difference doesn\u2019t change the overall conclusions.<\/p>\n
You can add a grain of salt here if you like, but even then, neither of these nits changes the poll\u2019s bottom line.<\/p>\n
The missing methodology clarified<\/p>\n
The methodology section, importantly, does not say how the poll was conducted\u2014whether by phone, text-to-web, IVR, or online panel. That\u2019s a significant omission. The way a poll is done matters. A live-caller phone poll using the voter file is much more reliable than an online opt-in panel.<\/p>\n
Without knowing how these 1,834 people were contacted, readers can\u2019t really judge how random or representative the sample is. This information should have been shared clearly, but it wasn\u2019t.<\/p>\n
We reached out and asked. It turns out the poll used a mix of text-to-web and email-to-web methods. This approach is cheaper, and as long as it\u2019s matched and verified to voter files (which it was), it\u2019s still valid. So maybe be a little cautious, but since this poll lines up with others, there\u2019s not much reason for concern.<\/p>\n
Know your pollster<\/p>\n
MDW Communications and EDGE Communications are both consulting firms that work with Democrats.\u00a0Christian Ulvert, who is quoted a lot in the poll memo, is one of Florida\u2019s top Democratic strategists.<\/p>\n
This doesn\u2019t automatically mean the numbers are wrong. Partisan pollsters often produce valid surveys. Still, you should keep in mind that this poll was likely done to create news, attract donors, and energize a base that\u2019s had a tough decade in Florida. Even so, the main findings are still credible.<\/p>\n
When polling becomes advocacy<\/p>\n
The property tax section is where the poll\u2019s advocacy is most obvious. For example, giving voters a choice between eliminating property taxes or keeping funding for police, fire, and parks is classic push-polling. It\u2019s more about influencing opinion than measuring it.<\/p>\n
The 21-point shift the poll shows after telling voters about the trade-offs says more about how persuasive a strong message can be than about real public opinion.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s helpful for opposition research, but it isn\u2019t neutral public opinion data. Still, it\u2019s worth noting that when a proposed referendum starts out below the needed mark (in this case, 60%), like the property tax measure does, it\u2019s a bad sign for supporters.<\/p>\n
The bottom line<\/p>\n
We consider the main results solid. The pollster is reputable, the methods are good, and the weighting is reasonable. No skepticism needed there. However, the advocacy questions do deserve some healthy doubt.<\/p>\n
Florida\u2019s political scene seems to be changing, as recent Special Election results and other polls show. More voters with no party are moving toward Democrats, which matches other data. Trump\u2019s image is struggling, even in a state he won twice. This is good news for Democrats and a real concern for Republicans.<\/p>\n
Final note<\/p>\n
Remember, polls can hint at what might happen, but they don\u2019t predict final results. There\u2019s still a long way to go before Election Day, and as we\u2019ve seen before, these numbers can change. Anyone calling for a Democratic landslide in Florida should be met with plenty of skepticism \u2014 and more than a few grains of salt.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Every poll tells a story. The questions a careful reader must ask are: Who\u2019s doing the storytelling, and…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":230741,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[11591,42604,55703,28,30,29,97801,22306,8829],"class_list":{"0":"post-230740","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-florida","8":"tag-2026-election","9":"tag-christian-ulvert","10":"tag-edge-communications","11":"tag-florida","12":"tag-florida-headlines","13":"tag-florida-news","14":"tag-mdw-communications","15":"tag-poll","16":"tag-survey"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/230740","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=230740"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/230740\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/230741"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=230740"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=230740"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=230740"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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