The Trump effect<\/p>\n
At the center of the findings is a warning sign for Republicans: President Donald Trump is underwater with Florida voters, and pollsters say that dynamic could have ripple effects down the ballot.<\/p>\n
Trump posts a net negative approval rating of 6.1 percentage points statewide, with particularly sharp declines among no-party voters, where his net favorability is 39.3 points underwater.<\/p>\n
While Republican voters remain strongly supportive, the erosion among independents \u2014 a critical voting bloc in Florida \u2014 is significant.<\/p>\n \u201cTrump is underwater on virtually every issue voters care about most,\u201d pollsters wrote in their analysis.<\/p>\n The data shows Trump struggling even on issues traditionally considered strengths. He holds a net negative 4.9 rating on the economy, with 43.5% of voters strongly opposing his handling of it.<\/p>\n His approval is also -12.7 on government spending and -13.6 on abortion. On foreign policy, including military actions involving Iran, he posts a -6.7 rating.<\/p>\n Trump\u2019s weakest issue in the survey is related to the Jeffrey Epstein files, where he registers a net negative 25.2 approval. Immigration enforcement policies, including Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids and mass deportations, are also viewed negatively overall, with a net rating of -2.7 statewide and -27.7 among independents.<\/p>\n Against that backdrop, Democrats appear to be gaining ground in broader voter sentiment. In a generic congressional ballot test \u2014 which asks voters which party they would support without naming specific candidates \u2014 Democrats hold a narrow edge.<\/p>\n About 46% of respondents said they would vote for a Democratic candidate, compared to 45.2% who intend to side with a Republican and 8.8% who are undecided.<\/p>\n The margin is small, but the underlying coalition shifts are notable. Among no-party voters, Democrats hold a more than 2-to-1 advantage, with 51.9% favoring Democrats compared to 22.7% backing Republicans.<\/p>\n Pollsters said that dynamic reflects a broader trend that could reshape Florida\u2019s political map.<\/p>\n \u201cThe Democrats\u2019 lead solidifies how deeply Trump\u2019s weakness is pulling down the GOP brand,\u201d pollsters wrote.<\/p>\n \u201cCritically, Democrats hold a clear advantage among NPA voters, in line with Democratic performance among NPAs in recent Florida Special Elections over the last year and the Miami Mayoral and Boca Raton races, where Democrats flipped those<\/a> two seats<\/a> for the first time in 30 years. A deeper pain for Republicans is they have fallen below 90% vote support among their own party, and Republican defection (6.4%) far outpaces Democratic defection.\u201d<\/p>\n Top-of-the-ballot races<\/p>\n The state\u2019s marquee races remain highly competitive.<\/p>\n In a potential General Election matchup for Governor, Republican U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds and Democrat David Jolly are separated by just 0.7 percentage points \u2014 well within the poll\u2019s margin of error.<\/p>\n Notably, 18.3% of voters remain undecided in the Governor\u2019s contest, leaving substantial room for movement.<\/p>\n Similarly, a hypothetical U.S. Senate race between Democratic candidate Alex Vindman and incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody is also effectively tied, with just a 1.2-point difference between them.<\/p>\n The race for Attorney General shows a slightly wider gap, though still within striking distance for either party. Democratic candidate Jos\u00e9 Javier Rodr\u00edguez leads Republican incumbent James Uthmeier 42.8% to 39.6%.<\/p>\n Pollsters point to a contrast in favorability ratings \u2014 Rodr\u00edguez at +3.4 compared to Uthmeier at -8.6 \u2014 as a potential advantage for Democrats as the race develops.<\/p>\n They also note Rodr\u00edguez\u2019s candidacy as a potential factor in outreach to Hispanic voters, a key demographic in Florida politics.<\/p>\n On the issues<\/p>\n Beyond candidate matchups, the poll underscores the issues driving voter priorities \u2014 and the challenges facing both parties.<\/p>\n Economic concerns dominate. Nearly 70% of voters ranked housing affordability, property insurance costs and property taxes among their top three issues. However, when asked to identify their single most important issue, more voters selected corruption (21%) and immigration (13.8%) than any single economic category.<\/p>\n Corruption was included in the top three concerns of nearly 46% of respondents, followed by immigration at 36.5%.<\/p>\n Pollsters suggest that both issues present challenges for Republicans in the current political environment.<\/p>\n \u201cAffordability remains the top issue for the Florida electorate,\u201d said Michael Worley, President and CEO of MDW Communications.<\/p>\n \u201cThat may mean different things to different people \u2014 housing, gas prices, property insurance, and taxes. Regardless, the clear edge Republicans have held on economic issues in Florida since COVID has gone away as costs continue to skyrocket and both Washington and Tallahassee fail to act.\u201d<\/p>\n The survey also tested support for one of the most closely watched policy proposals in Florida: eliminating property taxes.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Influence_FGAT_Banner_728x90.jpg\")
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