On Earth Day, scientists say the world\u2019s coral reefs are under siege — bleaching, breaking and dying at an alarming rate. In Florida alone, about 90% of coral cover has been lost over the past 40 years.<\/p>\n
But as the crisis unfolds underwater, researchers are turning to an unlikely ally: artificial intelligence.<\/p>\n
A record ocean heat wave in 2023 proved deadly for corals on Florida\u2019s reefs.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019re seeing 100% bleaching. That\u2019s crazy. It\u2019s absolutely crazy,\u201d said Ian Enochs with NOAA\u2019s coral program.<\/p>\n
Ocean temperatures around the Caribbean and Florida rose rapidly, triggering widespread bleaching across multiple coral species.<\/p>\n
\u201cI have not seen a coral out there that is not affected by bleaching,\u201d Enochs said.<\/p>\n
The fast-moving die-off, with little warning, pushed scientists to look for new solutions.<\/p>\n
\u201cDuring that summer, we saw three times the amount of heat stress in the region than had previously been recorded,\u201d said Dr. Marybeth Arcodia. \u201cThis really led to our motivation for the early warning component here to actually give more lead time for preparation for heat stress or a bleaching event.\u201d<\/p>\n
Arcodia and her team at the University of Miami\u2019s Rosenstiel School began developing a model powered by AI.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe idea is predicting if and when the corals right here off the coast of Miami can experience heat stress,\u201d Arcodia said.<\/p>\n
The model pulls data from a wide range of public sources to predict heat stress events at specific reef sites — a shift from broader regional forecasts.<\/p>\n
\u201cInstead of looking at sea surface temperatures across the region — we\u2019re predicting when we can expect that stress at a specific reef site,\u201d Arcodia said.<\/p>\n
While NOAA has long forecasted potential bleaching events, AI now offers scientists the ability to predict heat stress up to six weeks in advance.<\/p>\n
\u201cAs a scientist and as a conservationist, it\u2019s really nice to know when bleaching events might be happening, it helps everyone working on corals reprioritize what they\u2019re doing,\u201d said coral researcher Rich Karp.<\/p>\n
During the 2023 bleaching event, scientists rushed to save what they could — removing vulnerable corals from the ocean and placing them in tanks on land until conditions improved.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe went out there and recovered as many of our vulnerable corals as we could,\u201d said Dalton Hesley, a senior research associate at the Rosenstiel School.<\/p>\n
Researchers say the AI model could be a game changer.<\/p>\n
\u201cYou can ensure that your genetic diversity, that you have in the nurseries is all backed up on land-based areas or in deeper water nurseries,\u201d Karp said. \u201cIt gives you time to kind of set up and move corals to deeper water where there might be less light stress that would cause them to bleach and bleach so quickly.\u201d<\/p>\n
Karp and Arcodia, who are married, combined their expertise — coding and biology — to build the system.<\/p>\n
The model can also help guide restoration efforts, like avoiding coral out planting during extreme heat.<\/p>\n
As ocean temperatures begin rising again heading into summer, scientists say the AI-powered system could provide critical protection to an ecosystem already on the brink.<\/p>\n
\u201cI really like to see them thrive in the wild and so spending as much time to try to help conserve them and figure out, understand these mechanisms that will allow, you know, the future generations to continue to see them,\u201d Karp said.<\/p>\n
Right now, the model focuses on a handful of local reef sites, but the team hopes to expand it in the coming years — aiming to protect more of Florida\u2019s coral reefs before it\u2019s too late.<\/p>\n
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