{"id":244392,"date":"2026-04-24T07:03:17","date_gmt":"2026-04-24T07:03:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/244392\/"},"modified":"2026-04-24T07:03:17","modified_gmt":"2026-04-24T07:03:17","slug":"florida-could-make-or-break-the-gops-redistricting-edge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/244392\/","title":{"rendered":"Florida could make or break the GOP\u2019s redistricting edge"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">President Donald Trump&#8217;s redistricting war now rests on Florida \u2014 and his onetime primary rival Gov. Ron DeSantis.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">The Sunshine State is the GOP\u2019s likely best remaining chance to claw back an edge to keep their House majority, after voters <a data-yga=\"{\" ylinkelement=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2026\/04\/21\/democrats-win-redistricting-virginia-00885917\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"elm:link;elmt:article_link;slk:approved a gerrymander;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">approved a gerrymander<\/a> in Virginia that will allow Democrats to pick up as many as four new seats.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">Now all eyes are on Florida to deliver a new map that could net the party anywhere from three to five seats, with legislators scheduled to hold a special session next week. National and state Republicans are counting on DeSantis to deliver on the White House priority and ensure their nine-month redistricting war doesn&#8217;t end in a wash.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">\u201cThis is honestly an all-hands-on-deck moment, because if you lose the House, you&#8217;re going to bring, essentially, the agenda to a grinding halt,\u201d said Florida-based GOP strategist Ford O\u2019Connell. \u201c[DeSantis] does this right, and it could give rebirth to his political career.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">DeSantis reached the governor\u2019s mansion during the 2018 cycle with help from well-timed Trump endorsements and became a rising Republican star during the Covid-19 pandemic that led to him challenging the president in the 2024 election. The two had a rapprochement after Trump won, but they aren\u2019t always in lockstep.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">\u201cAll eyes are on Ron DeSantis and Florida now. It&#8217;s a little poetic,\u201d said one Republican operative, granted anonymity to speak candidly, like others in this article. \u201cDeSantis has his marching orders: Take the gloves off like Democrats did in Virginia and California and draw as many districts as you can, legally, for Republicans.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">Any redistricting effort in Florida is bound to run into political and legal obstacles. DeSantis first began clamoring for mid-decade redistricting last summer \u2014 roughly the same time that the White House began pushing for lawmakers in Texas to act. Since then, Trump\u2019s popularity has waned and backlash over high costs of living and his ongoing war in Iran has complicated <a data-yga=\"{\" ylinkelement=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2026\/04\/19\/senate-midterm-chances-republican-fears-00879916\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"elm:link;elmt:article_link;slk:Republicans&#039; midterm landscape;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">Republicans&#8217; midterm landscape<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">One Florida GOP operative familiar with the governor\u2019s thinking \u2014 granted anonymity because he is not authorized to speak publicly \u2014 said that DeSantis \u201cwould still like to get something done on redistricting. But he realizes the atmospherics for the 2026 election are already in place and it will be tough for Republicans to retain the House regardless of what happens in Florida.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">There are also legal questions over how far DeSantis and GOP lawmakers in Florida can go in redrawing the map, raising doubts about whether they can actually pull it off. The state has a strict ban on redrawing congressional districts for partisan gain, or to help or hurt incumbents. Democrats argue any effort to redraw maps is illegal and will run afoul of this constitutional prohibition.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">DeSantis, for his part, has pushed through his own congressional map before, a significant reason why national Republicans are hopeful he can do it again.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">In 2022, his new map helped Republicans secure a 20-8 edge and ultimately flip four seats \u2014 a feat DeSantis has argued was <a data-yga=\"{\" ylinkelement=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2022\/11\/17\/ron-desantis-maps-gop-congress-house-florida-00066305\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"elm:link;elmt:article_link;slk:key to the GOP winning back the House majority;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">key to the GOP winning back the House majority<\/a> at the time. That map was able to withstand legal challenges, but with control of the House again on the line, a redraw now is sure to bring a flurry of lawsuits. One factor in the governor\u2019s favor is that state and federal courts may be loath to order a new map so close to the midterms and could let Florida\u2019s map stand for now.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">DeSantis has argued that the last U.S. Census effort was flawed and robbed the state of at least one congressional seat. He also has pointed to ongoing population growth since the Covid-19 pandemic and a pending U.S. Supreme Court decision in a Louisiana redistricting case that could force changes to the map.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">He already pointed to one district \u2014 that had been held by Democratic Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick until she resigned under pressure this Tuesday \u2014 as one that should be redrawn.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">But the governor, who has already delayed the special session by a week, has yet to publicly release a map with just days left before the session is scheduled to start. Legislative leaders have said it\u2019s up to DeSantis to keep the effort on track.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">\u201cBy the time we get to Tallahassee, I\u2019m sure there will be a map and the body will consider it at the right time,\u201d said state House Speaker Daniel Perez, a Miami Republican.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">Some Republicans in Congress who have been skeptical about going ahead with redistricting said the results in Virginia might have made it necessary for the GOP to react quickly.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">\u201cI don&#8217;t like this redistricting in the middle of the census, but in light of what Virginia is doing, we may need to respond to that,\u201d said Florida Republican Rep. John Rutherford, who has previously warned against Florida redistricting.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">Still, others are worried that an aggressive plan could backfire.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">Alex Alvarado, a well-known Florida political consultant who has worked with many prominent Republicans, recently published an analysis that suggested a new map would backfire for the GOP given the current political climate. He suggested it would result in no net gain for Republicans and would give Democrats a chance to win back seats.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">\u201cWe have already compacted Democrats into such tight districts, the only thing you can do when you are redrawing is cut them out of there,\u201d said Alvarado in an interview. \u201cYou have to place those Democratic voters somewhere.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">Adam Kincaid, executive director of the National Republican Redistricting Trust, also cautioned against expectations of sweeping gains due to the state\u2019s \u201cFair Districts\u201d provisions that ban partisan redistricting.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">\u201cI don&#8217;t think you&#8217;re gonna create deep-blood-red seats all over the state,\u201d he said. \u201cI think we just have to wait and see what the Legislature produces.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">Democrats are already warning they\u2019ll make problems for DeSantis. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said Wednesday that they will target Florida and will \u201cfinish\u201d the redistricting war Trump started.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">\u201cOur message to Florida Republicans is \u2018F\u2019 around and find out,\u201d he told reporters.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">DeSantis, during a bill signing ceremony in Jacksonville, was not concerned<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">\u201c\u2018We\u2019re going to go after Florida.\u2019 Please, be my guest,\u201d DeSantis said of Jeffries. \u201cI will pay for you to come down to Florida and campaign. I\u2019ll put you up in the Florida governor\u2019s mansion. We\u2019ll take you fishing. We\u2019ll do all this stuff.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">For DeSantis, the outcome of the map-drawing gambit is as much political as it is personal. His second term ends in January, and he\u2019s speculated to have his eyes once again on ambitions beyond the Sunshine State.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">\u201cIf he can deliver, it will at least give him a slingshot back into Trump&#8217;s good graces, and maybe even elevated status in the broader Republican movement,\u201d said a second Republican strategist.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">For now, the White House seems content to let him take the lead \u2014 at least, publicly.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">Trump\u2019s political director James Blair, a Florida native and former deputy chief of staff to DeSantis, said Wednesday that has not been involved in the Florida map-drawing process. \u201cIf [DeSantis] chooses to go forward, he will draw them in a way that is compliant with the law and we&#8217;ll see what happens,\u201d he said on CNN.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">\u201cI don&#8217;t talk to the governor, I&#8217;ve not talked to those folks about it. But again \u2026 I think their track record shows that they know how to draw maps in compliance with Florida law and the Florida constitution, and we will see what they do next week,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">Mia McCarthy, Gregory Svirnovskiy, Riley Rogerson and Lisa Kashinsky contributed to this report.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"President Donald Trump&#8217;s redistricting war now rests on Florida \u2014 and his onetime primary rival Gov. Ron DeSantis.&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":244393,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[8131,28,64744,3291,30,29,107673,14135,5052,6688,412,1360,9102],"class_list":{"0":"post-244392","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-florida","8":"tag-democrats","9":"tag-florida","10":"tag-florida-gop","11":"tag-florida-governor","12":"tag-florida-headlines","13":"tag-florida-news","14":"tag-gerrymander","15":"tag-gop","16":"tag-house","17":"tag-president-donald-trump","18":"tag-ron-desantis","19":"tag-the-sunshine-state","20":"tag-white-house"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/244392","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=244392"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/244392\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/244393"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=244392"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=244392"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=244392"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}