{"id":258799,"date":"2026-05-05T03:57:19","date_gmt":"2026-05-05T03:57:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/258799\/"},"modified":"2026-05-05T03:57:19","modified_gmt":"2026-05-05T03:57:19","slug":"sabatos-crystal-ball-shifts-ratings-in-9-florida-congressional-districts-and-not-all-the-same-direction","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/258799\/","title":{"rendered":"Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifts ratings in 9 Florida congressional districts \u2014 and not all the same direction"},"content":{"rendered":"

Florida\u2019s new congressional map prompted one of Washington\u2019s top election prognosticators to change ratings on nine seats. Not all of them moved in Republicans\u2019 favor.<\/p>\n

Sabato\u2019s Crystal Ball<\/a>, a project of the University of Virginia\u2019s Center for Politics, made significant changes after Gov. Ron DeSantis signed<\/a> the map. The new cartography<\/a> leaves just four of 28 U.S. House districts in the state where a majority voted for Democrat Kamala Harris for President in 2024.<\/p>\n

Analysts for Crystal Ball moved four congressional seats in Republicans\u2019 direction.<\/p>\n

That included moving Florida\u2019s 9th Congressional District \u2014 where U.S. Rep. Darren Soto was already targeted<\/a> by House Republicans \u2014 from the \u201cLikely Democratic\u201d category to the \u201cLikely Republican\u201d one.<\/p>\n

The charts also push Florida\u2019s 14th Congressional District \u2014 where Democratic U.S. Rep. Kathy Castor will seek re-election<\/a>\u00a0\u2014 from \u201cSafe Democratic\u201d to \u201cLeans Republican.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

In South Florida, the seat moves Florida\u2019s 22nd Congressional District from \u201cSafe Democratic\u201d to \u201cLeans Republican.\u201d Under the current map, that is represented by U.S. Rep. Lois Frankel, but the West Palm Beach Democrat will likely run in Florida\u2019s 23rd Congressional District on the new map. No Democrat has said they will run in CD 22 yet.<\/p>\n

Florida\u2019s 25th Congressional District, now represented by Democratic U.S. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, goes from \u201cSafe Democratic\u201d to \u201cToss-up\u201d on the new map, which also dramatically remakes the seat. It\u2019s unclear where Wasserman Schultz or U.S. Rep. Jared Moskowitz, the Democrat representing the outgoing CD 23, will run.<\/p>\n

While that charts out a potential four Republican net gains on the map, the site also shifts several other seats away from the GOP.<\/p>\n

It takes CD 23, where Moskowitz was targeted, out of \u201cLeans Democratic.\u201d On the makeup that will likely attract Frankel, the seat is now listed as \u201cSafe Democratic.\u201d<\/p>\n

But the predictions for four seats considered \u201cSafe Republican\u201d move into play, albeit only in the \u201cLikely Republican\u201d column, in the new analysis.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

That includes Florida\u2019s 7th Congressional District, where the lines don\u2019t change but U.S. Rep. Cory Mills is increasingly hounded<\/a> by personal scandals.<\/p>\n

But the map also sees vulnerability in Florida\u2019s 12th Congressional District, where GOP U.S. Rep. Gus Bilirakis is seeking re-election<\/a> but was not considered vulnerable before.<\/p>\n

An open Florida\u2019s 16th Congressional District race, where U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan was already retiring, also went from the \u201cSafe\u201d to \u201cLikely\u201d Republican column.<\/p>\n

And targeted GOP U.S. Rep. Mar\u00eda Elvira Salazar, in Florida\u2019s 27th Congressional District, also saw the same ratings change.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Florida\u2019s new congressional map prompted one of Washington\u2019s top election prognosticators to change ratings on nine seats. Not…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":217542,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[112139,107429,66029,112140,112141,62137,52347,112142,112143,3951,6698,6699,28,30,29,8869,3854,112144,8876,8878,112145],"class_list":["post-258799","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-florida","tag-cd-12","tag-cd-14","tag-cd-16","tag-cd-22","tag-cd-23","tag-cd-25","tag-cd-27","tag-cd-7","tag-cd-9","tag-cory-mills","tag-darren-soto","tag-debbie-wasserman-schultz","tag-florida","tag-florida-headlines","tag-florida-news","tag-gus-bilirakis","tag-jared-moskowitz","tag-kathy-castor-vern-buchanan","tag-lois-frankel","tag-maria-elvira-salazar","tag-sabatos-crystal-ball"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/258799","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=258799"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/258799\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/217542"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=258799"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=258799"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=258799"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}