Over the last few weeks and months,\u00a0I have asked Republican voters in the state of Florida\u00a0a question that\u00a0has sent an admitted chill down their spine: \u201cWhat if the Republicans lose the election for governor in November?\u201d<\/p>\n
Many people\u00a0\u2014\u00a0myself\u00a0included\u00a0\u2014\u00a0believe that\u00a0the\u00a0current\u00a0governor,\u00a0Ron DeSantis,\u00a0is\u00a0not only exceptional at the\u00a0job,\u00a0but also easily the best governor in the nation. More than that, they believe he saved the Sunshine\u00a0State and its people at the height of COVID-19 hysteria\u00a0by standing tall for personal freedoms<\/a>.\u00a0As blue\u00a0state after blue\u00a0state instituted liberty-robbing draconian measures<\/a>\u00a0in the guise of helping their constituents, many shuddered at the thought of what would have happened if then-Tallahassee Mayor Andrew\u00a0Gillum (D) had defeated DeSantis in 2018.<\/p>\n After\u00a0more than\u00a08\u00a0million votes had been counted in the race between Gillum and DeSantis to succeed term-limited Gov. Rick Scott (R) as the next governor of Florida,\u00a0on Nov. 6, 2018,\u00a0DeSantis was ahead by\u00a0just\u00a01\u00a0percentage point<\/a>.\u00a0DeSantis squeaked it out<\/a> in a state-mandated machine recount. He went on to become the very model of a strong, common-sense, rule-of-law governor.<\/p>\n But along with that razon-thin victory came an irrefutable\u00a0and\u00a0now\u00a0very pertinent fact: DeSantis owed his victory\u00a0almost\u00a0entirely\u00a0to President Trump. Trump\u2019s endorsement of DeSantis<\/a>\u00a0in the primary and then in the general had meant everything to the\u00a0relatively unknown congressman. It is for that reason that Trump was\u00a0so\u00a0shocked \u2014\u00a0 and angered<\/a> \u00a0\u2014 when DeSantis decided to run against him for the Republican nomination in 2024.<\/p>\n Even with Trump\u2019s endorsement, many people expected\u00a0a Gillum victory in a strongly Democratic year. Eight years later,\u00a0with Election Day for governor in Florida just six months away,\u00a0a number of\u00a0pundits and experts\u00a0think\u00a0that Trump-endorsed Republican Rep.\u00a0Byron Donalds will cruise to victory.<\/a> Maybe.<\/p>\n Others believe that a \u201cblue wave\u201d<\/a>\u00a0is going to sweep across the country in November\u00a0\u2014 a\u00a0wave so high and with so much momentum behind it that it could swing the gubernatorial election in Florida to the Democrats. Could be.<\/p>\n But\u00a0let\u2019s\u00a0not forget the expected Republican tsunami during the 2022 midterms\u00a0that fizzled to such an embarrassing degree<\/a>\u00a0that Republicans barely won a majority in the House\u00a0\u2014 or the fact that political prognosticators took that humiliation as a sign that Trump\u2019s anticipated comeback in 2024<\/a> would be a flop.<\/p>\n Going back to Florida, it should be noted that\u00a0in the midst of\u00a0the\u00a02022\u00a0Republican collapse, DeSantis engineered a massive 20-point landslide reelection victory.<\/a> Much of it came as a direct result of his fight\u00a0against the hated\u00a0COVID\u00a0measures popping up across the nation.<\/p>\n Since that resounding victory, the DeSantis brand in Florida has been powerful\u00a0\u2014 so much\u00a0that a poll from Florida Atlantic University in June of 2024 showed DeSantis\u2019s wife, Casey,\u00a0crushing Byron Donalds by\u00a024\u00a0points<\/a> in a hypothetical Republican matchup for\u00a0governor. And yet, in May of 2026, it is Donalds who is all but assured to be the Republican nominee,<\/a> with Casey DeSantis on the sidelines.<\/p>\n How? And why?\u00a0The short answer to both is Trump. <\/p>\n Many\u00a0inside and outside of Florida still believe Trump holds a grudge against DeSantis because of his perceived disloyalty\u00a0in 2024. And although presidents often\u00a0don\u2019t\u00a0endorse a candidate from their own\u00a0party during the primary, Trump came out fast and furious for Donalds.<\/p>\n DeSantis knows that\u00a0an endorsement from Trump\u00a0can be everything. After Trump\u2019s endorsement of Donalds, a James Madison Institute poll in May of 2025 showed the numbers flipped, with Donalds leading Casey DeSantis, 44\u00a0percent\u00a0to 25\u00a0percent.<\/a> Game over.\u00a0 <\/p>\n Casey is thought by many \u2014\u00a0myself\u00a0included \u2014\u00a0to be the logical candidate to replace her husband, to\u00a0build upon his\u00a0very popular\u00a0policies and keep the state red. Now it seems\u00a0that critical task\u00a0may fall\u00a0to Donalds.<\/p>\n Will he win? He is\u00a0the odds-on-favorite. But coupled with the caveat regarding a potential blue wave is the fear of a complacency factor among Florida Republicans.<\/p>\n