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A satellite image as Hurricane Debby makes landfall along the coast of Florida in the Big Bend region of the state’s panhandle as a Category 1 storm on the morning of Aug. 5, 2024. (Courtesy of NOAA)\t\t<\/p>\n\t\tA satellite image as Hurricane Debby makes landfall along the coast of Florida in the Big Bend region of the state’s panhandle as a Category 1 storm on the morning of Aug. 5, 2024. (Courtesy of NOAA)\t\t<\/p>\n
Even during a hurricane season expected to be less active, Florida State University experts say Floridians should prepare early, stay alert and avoid focusing too narrowly on storm categories or forecast cones.<\/p>\n
During a media briefing<\/a> Wednesday ahead of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, FSU researchers and emergency management specialists discussed the issues communities continue to face, from rapid coastal growth and rising insurance pressures to the expanding role of artificial intelligence in disaster response.<\/p>\n Here are five key takeaways from the discussion:<\/p>\n 1. It only takes one storm<\/p>\n Several experts cautioned against letting seasonal forecasts create a false sense of security.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s the landfalling hurricanes that matter, not the number of hurricanes per season, in terms of human impacts, for the most part,\u201d said Mark Bourassa<\/a>, a professor in FSU\u2019s Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science<\/a> and associate director of the Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies<\/a>. \u201cIf it hits you, it\u2019s bad. It\u2019s something that you do have to be aware of the whole time.\u201d<\/p>\n David Merrick<\/a>, director of FSU\u2019s Emergency Management and Homeland Security Program<\/a> and the Center for Disaster Risk Policy<\/a>, said one quiet season does not eliminate the risk of a devastating storm, pointing to the destruction left by Hurricane Andrew when it made landfall in South Florida in 1992.<\/p>\n \u201cHurricane Andrew was the first storm of that season,\u201d Merrick said. \u201cIt does not take 20 storms. It just takes the one.\u201d<\/p>\n 2. Being outside the forecast cone does not guarantee safety<\/p>\n Experts also warned residents not to focus too narrowly on a storm\u2019s forecast track.<\/p>\n Merrick noted that dangerous impacts such as tornadoes, flooding and wind damage can occur far outside the center of a storm.<\/p>\n \u201cThose impacts can go a long way inland,\u201d he said. \u201cThey can go left and right of the cone.\u201d<\/p>\n He emphasized that communities outside the projected path can still experience significant damage and disruptions. And as a hurricane develops, the forecast track can move, bringing the center of the storm to communities that only expected minor impacts. Bourassa also pointed to warming ocean temperatures as an area researchers are watching closely, particularly along Florida\u2019s Gulf Coast.<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019re a little bit more nervous about the temperatures rising and seeing intensity changes as the hurricanes come right onshore,\u201d Bourassa said.<\/p>\n 3. Florida\u2019s rapid coastal growth is increasing risk<\/p>\n Dennis Smith<\/a>, planner in residence in FSU\u2019s Department of Urban and Regional Planning<\/a>, said Florida\u2019s population growth continues to place more people and property in vulnerable coastal areas.<\/p>\n \u201cThe issue hasn\u2019t gotten better in the last 30 years,\u201d Smith said. \u201cWe have more people who are living in areas that are at the highest risk.\u201d<\/p>\n Smith said communities are increasingly being forced to think beyond individual homes and consider broader infrastructure needs such as drainage systems, roads and public facilities.<\/p>\n \u201cWe have a lot more in our built environment than simply our residential structures,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n The discussion also highlighted how insurance availability is intertwined with planning and development decisions.<\/p>\n \u201cInsurance drives housing availability, and so it becomes a planning issue,\u201d Smith said.<\/p>\n 4. Resilient construction and mitigation efforts can make a difference<\/p>\n Patricia Born<\/a>, the Payne H. and Charlotte Hodges Midyette Eminent Scholar in Risk Management and Insurance<\/a> at FSU\u2019s Herbert Wertheim College of Business<\/a>, said Florida\u2019s insurance market appears stronger than it did several years ago, partly because of a quieter storm season and improving reinsurance conditions.<\/p>\n But she said long-term stability will depend on reducing losses through mitigation and resilience efforts.<\/p>\n \u201cOne way to control insurance costs is to try to control the losses themselves,\u201d Born said.<\/p>\n Newer buildings are often more resilient than older structures, but insurers still face challenges gathering accurate information about homes and upgrades.<\/p>\n \u201cSome houses that are very old have had roofs replaced two or three times, and they may be much more resilient than an insurance company thinks,\u201d Born said.<\/p>\n She said improving data about construction quality, inspections and mitigation measures could help insurers better understand risk and expand coverage options across the state.<\/p>\n 5. Artificial intelligence is beginning to change disaster response<\/p>\n FSU researchers also discussed how artificial intelligence and remote sensing technology are beginning to reshape emergency management and disaster recovery efforts.<\/p>\n Merrick said researchers are exploring how AI tools can help emergency managers make faster decisions, improve damage assessments and allocate resources more efficiently after disasters.<\/p>\n \u201cEmergency managers almost universally are like, yes, we want this tool,\u201d Merrick said.<\/p>\n Still, he said the technology remains in an early stage and raises important questions about accuracy and ethics.<\/p>\n \u201cThere\u2019s also an almost universal concern about what happens when the answer that the algorithm or the AI gives is wrong,\u201d Merrick said.<\/p>\n Smith said researchers are also studying how drones, LiDAR imagery and AI analysis could help communities identify infrastructure weaknesses before storms strike.<\/p>\n \u201cI think we\u2019re going to see a trend to begin to integrate that into risk assessment and mitigation planning on the front end,\u201d Smith said.<\/p>\n