NOAA\u2019s Climate Prediction Center<\/a> says El Ni\u00f1o is now \u201clikely\u201d to develop soon and continue through the upcoming winter season.<\/p>\nRight now, the Pacific Ocean remains in ENSO-neutral conditions, meaning ocean temperatures are close to average across the equatorial Pacific.<\/p>\n
UPDATED: MAY 2026<\/p>\n
However, forecasters say warmer-than-average water below the ocean surface has continued building for months, which tends to be an early sign that El Ni\u00f1o could soon emerge.<\/p>\n
NOAA now gives El Ni\u00f1o an 82% chance of developing between May and July, with a 96% chance it persists through the winter of 2026-27.<\/p>\n
El Nino May 2026 UpdateWhat it means for Florida<\/p>\n
For Florida, El Ni\u00f1o can have major impacts on both hurricane season and the upcoming winter pattern.<\/p>\n
During El Ni\u00f1o years, the Atlantic hurricane season is typically less active, with fewer named storms developing across the basin. Stronger upper-level winds over the Atlantic often create more wind shear, making it harder for tropical systems to organize and strengthen.<\/p>\n
El Nino Tropical Impacts<\/p>\n
However, a quieter season does not mean Florida is immune to impacts. Hurricanes Andrew in 1992 and Michael in 2018 both formed during El Ni\u00f1o years, proving it only takes one storm to create devastating impacts.<\/p>\n
The stronger signal for Florida usually arrives during the cooler months.<\/p>\n
El Ni\u00f1o winters often bring a more active southern jet stream across the Gulf Coast and Florida, helping steer additional moisture and storm systems into the state. This pattern typically leads to above-average rainfall during what is normally Florida\u2019s dry season.<\/p>\n
The opposite influence occurs during El Nino conditions with a much more southern biased jet stream driving moisture and strong storms typically into our area, and across the south (Copyright 2025 by WKMG ClickOrlando – All rights reserved.)<\/p>\n
Long-range forecast models are already hinting that December and January could trend wetter than normal across Florida if El Ni\u00f1o fully develops and strengthens.<\/p>\n
That wetter setup would likely reduce the risk for widespread drought conditions next dry season. It could also increase the chance for stronger storm systems and severe weather events during the winter and early spring months.<\/p>\n
Forecasters stress there is still uncertainty regarding how strong this El Ni\u00f1o may become, but confidence continues growing that the pattern shift is underway.<\/p>\n
Daily Forecast<\/p>\n
The News 6 Weather team ensures you’re always on top of the day’s weather.<\/p>\n
Copyright 2026 by WKMG ClickOrlando – All rights reserved.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"ORLANDO, Fla. \u2013 The globe is gearing up for a major shift heading into the second half of…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":272418,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[8742,28,30,29,508,221],"class_list":["post-272417","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-florida","tag-el-nino","tag-florida","tag-florida-headlines","tag-florida-news","tag-forecast","tag-weather"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/272417","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=272417"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/272417\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/272418"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=272417"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=272417"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=272417"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}