{"id":276555,"date":"2026-05-19T13:11:10","date_gmt":"2026-05-19T13:11:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/276555\/"},"modified":"2026-05-19T13:11:10","modified_gmt":"2026-05-19T13:11:10","slug":"the-salt-shaker-test-change-researchs-florida-deep-dive-needs-seasoning","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/276555\/","title":{"rendered":"The salt shaker test: Change Research’s Florida deep dive needs seasoning"},"content":{"rendered":"

Every poll that drops into a Florida political inbox gets the same first question from anyone who knows what they\u2019re doing: How did they build this thing?<\/p>\n

Change Research\u2019s<\/a>\u00a0new \u201cDeep Dive into Florida\u201d from Freedom Project USA has some genuinely interesting topline findings<\/a> \u2014 Donald Trump underwater with no-party voters (no surprise); Democratic voter motivation up (no surprise); David Jolly leading Byron Donalds (surprise); and Alex Vindman and Jos\u00e9 Javier Rodr\u00edguez both leading (shock).<\/p>\n

Before anyone runs to the betting markets, let\u2019s shake some salt on the methodology.<\/p>\n

Two things stand out.<\/p>\n

Problem 1: \u201cWill you vote?\u201d is a notoriously bad question<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The survey splits its 2,070 respondents into those who \u201csay they will likely vote\u201d \u2014 and that self-reported screen becomes the foundation for the most consequential numbers in the memo, including the Jolly-Donalds head-to-head.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s the problem: asking people whether they plan to vote is one of the least reliable questions in survey research. It is a textbook example of what social scientists call socially desirable response patterning<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The concept is straightforward. When a pollster asks, \u201cWill you be voting in the upcoming election?\u201d, most respondents know the \u201ccorrect\u201d answer. Voting is civic virtue. Saying no is like telling your doctor you haven\u2019t exercised in three months \u2014 technically honest, socially uncomfortable. So people say yes. Consistently. Across every demographic. In volumes that bear no resemblance to who actually shows up.<\/p>\n

And at a time when the President\u2019s numbers are underwater, of course Democrats are more likely to say they will vote. Many of them probably will. But intention isn\u2019t the best yardstick for turnout \u2014 the voter file is.<\/p>\n

This is not a small distortion. In a typical midterm, 35% to 45% of registered voters don\u2019t cast a ballot. But self-reported \u201clikely voters\u201d in pre-election surveys routinely run 70%, 80%, even higher. The people inflating that number aren\u2019t lying. They intend to vote. They just don\u2019t. Life intervenes. Motivation fades. The enthusiasm they felt when they answered the survey doesn\u2019t survive a Tuesday in November.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Problem 2: The voter file solves this \u2014 and it wasn\u2019t fully used<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s the good news: Florida has one of the richest voter files in the country, and it contains something far more valuable than self-reported intentions \u2014 actual voting history.<\/p>\n

Did this person vote in 2022? In 2020? In the last three Primaries? That behavioral record is the gold standard for modeling who will actually turn out. A registered voter with a consistent midterm history is categorically different from one who showed up once in 2020 and hasn\u2019t voted since. The file knows the difference. Self-reported enthusiasm does not.<\/p>\n

Change Research does note<\/a> in its methodology that it recruited some respondents through text messages sent to cell phone numbers on the voter file \u2014 so the file was in the room. That, in our view, is a missed opportunity. When your likely voter screen is built on \u201cI think I\u2019ll vote\u201d rather than \u201cthis person has voted in four of the last five comparable elections,\u201d your likely voter universe is softer than it looks.<\/p>\n

Partisan breakdown<\/p>\n

Kudos to Change Research for a +12 GOP model, but two concerns.<\/p>\n

Respondents were recruited using \u201ctargeted advertisements on Facebook and Instagram, as well as across the web via Facebook\u2019s ad platform\u201d and \u201ctext messages sent, via the Switchboard platform, to cell phone numbers listed on the voter file for individuals who qualified for the survey\u2019s sample universe, based on their voter file data.\u201d<\/p>\n

The second method is great. The first is the kind of methodology that rewards enthusiasts for raising their hands. The gold standard is the pollster reaching out to the respondent, not the other way around. Ad-based recruitment lets respondents self-select, and self-selection skews.<\/p>\n

The bottom line<\/p>\n

None of this means the findings are wrong. The issue environment Change Research describes \u2014 cost-of-living stress, insurance anxiety, no-party voters hostile to Trump \u2014 matches what other data sources show. The directional story is in line with other current polling.<\/p>\n

But the specific margins, and especially the enthusiasm gap numbers, deserve scrutiny. A survey that built its likely voter screen on behavioral voter file history rather than self-reported intention would give those findings a far more durable foundation. These methodology choices are likely the reason this poll is the outlier showing a top-of-the-ticket Democratic sweep.<\/p>\n

About the pollster<\/p>\n

It should come as no surprise that Change Research, while well-regarded, is a left-leaning shop that reps Democrats and progressive causes. This isn\u2019t an attack \u2014 but it may shed some light on the findings.<\/p>\n

Read this one with a shaker in hand.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Every poll that drops into a Florida political inbox gets the same first question from anyone who knows…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":230741,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[67180,445,118083,1813,409,28,30,29,118084,69896,22306,8829],"class_list":["post-276555","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-florida","tag-alex-vindman","tag-byron-donalds","tag-change-research","tag-david-jolly","tag-donald-trump","tag-florida","tag-florida-headlines","tag-florida-news","tag-freedom-project-usa","tag-jose-javier-rodriguez","tag-poll","tag-survey"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/276555","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=276555"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/276555\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/230741"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=276555"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=276555"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=276555"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}