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Cuban leader Miguel Diaz-Canel (R) and Col. Raul Guillermo Rodriguez Castro, grandson of Raul Castro, at the funeral of the 32 Cuban soldiers killed during the U.S. incursion in Venezuela, on Jan. 16, 2026.<\/p>\n
ADALBERTO ROQUE<\/p>\n
AFP via Getty Images<\/p>\n
As Cuban leaders reject reforms and talks with the U.S. stall, the Trump administration appears to be building a case to justify potential military action in Cuba if diplomacy and sanctions don\u2019t prompt major changes on the island, military experts and former U.S. officials told the Miami Herald.<\/p>\n
Only a few days ago, there were few signs that military action was high on the list of U.S. policy options to try to change the trajectory of Cuba, a country President Donald Trump initially labeled a \u201cfailing nation\u201d that would fall on its own.<\/p>\n
The administration had threatened Cuba\u2019s oil suppliers, leaving the island with no more fuel than what it can produce domestically, and it sanctioned the military conglomerate GAESA and its head, along with several members of the government and the military. It also engaged in talks with Ra\u00fal Castro\u2019s grandson, Ra\u00fal Guillermo Rodriguez Castro, in the hopes he could help strike a deal.<\/p>\n
The Trump administration would rather not use the military in Cuba, and military action does not seem imminent, experts say, but as Cuban leaders have dug in, refusing to make political concessions or enact major economic reforms at a fast pace, the administration has ramped up the pressure, signaling that it is preparing to move beyond economic coercion and diplomatic pressure.<\/p>\n
In a rapid escalation, the Trump administration sent CIA Director John Ratcliffe to deliver a warning to Havana last week \u2013 to make changes now, to take Trump seriously, to expel foreign adversaries from the island \u2013and indicated it was moving to indict Raull Castro for the shootout of two civilian planes of the Cuban exile organization Brothers to the Rescue.<\/p>\n
The CIA visit and the looming indictment are part of a pressure campaign on the Cuban government to extract concessions or fracture Cuban power elites, said Bryan Fonseca, a former analyst at the U.S. Southern Command who is vice provost for defense and national security research at Florida International University. But the measures could also be seen as \u201cthe first stages in beginning to say, if things don\u2019t change, we\u2019re going to go kinetic,\u201d a military term for combat. \u201cI think it\u2019s a signaling. It doesn\u2019t mean that they\u2019re going in tomorrow.\u201d<\/p>\n
For months now, U.S. military surveillance aircraft and drones have been flying close to the Cuban coast, likely gathering intelligence to update military plans in the event the administration makes a decision to strike. Using flight tracking data, CNN reported 25 such flights between early February and early May.<\/p>\n
Fonseca said he has \u201cno doubt\u201d the Pentagon has plans for taking Cuba by force. \u201cIt doesn\u2019t necessarily mean they\u2019re going to take action on those plans, but the flights have to happen, and you have to have intelligence if the President says, tomorrow, \u2018all right, guys, we\u2019re going in.\u201d<\/p>\n
Imminent threat?<\/p>\n
While several U.S. military assets remain in the Caribbean, where the administration is conducting controversial strikes on alleged drug-traffickers, observers have not yet seen the kind of military buildup that predated military action in Venezuela \u2014 where U.S. special forces captured the country\u2019s strongman, Nicol\u00e1s Maduro, in a very precise operation \u2014 or Iran, where the U.S. has conducted a significant number of air strikes.<\/p>\n
If the U.S. were to strike Cuba, it would deploy a massive number of military assets to avoid U.S. casualties, Fonseca said, but then \u201cthey\u2019d have to come back and answer as to what was the imminent threat, and they\u2019re going to do that in advance of what is going to be a very difficult midterm election for the Republicans.\u201d<\/p>\n
While Trump repeatedly has suggested that a military attack on Cuba is an option \u2013 he has mentioned taking Cuba and sending an aircraft carrier to the island \u2014 the administration had not articulated a legal pretext or justification for why Cuba is an imminent threat to U.S. national security. Then came news of Castro\u2019s impending indictment last week, followed by an Axios report Sunday citing classified intelligence<\/a> showing that Cuba has obtained more than 300 military drones from Russia and Iran and has discussed drone warfare plans in case of a U.S. attack.<\/p>\n Cuba has not outright denied it has acquired drones but has pushed against the notion that it would attack U.S. interests. Axios reported that the intelligence showed Cuban officials were recently discussing plans to use drones to attack the U.S. naval base in Guant\u00e1namo and even Key West.<\/p>\n \u201cLike any country, Cuba has the right to defend itself against external aggression. It is called self-defense, and it is protected by International Law and the U.N. Charter,\u201d Cuba\u2019s deputy foreign minister, Carlos Fern\u00e1ndez de Coss\u00edo, said in a statement shared by the Cuban embassy in Washington, D.C.<\/p>\n \u201cThose from the U.S. who seek the submission and, in fact, the destruction of the Cuban nation through military aggression and war, do not waste a single moment fabricating pretexts, creating and spreading falsehoods, and distorting as extraordinary the logical preparation required to face a potential aggression,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n Read more: Florida Keys sheriff urges calm following report Cuban drones could hit Key West<\/a><\/p>\n On Monday, Cuban leader Miguel D\u00edaz-Canel insisted the island is not a threat and is not planning to attack the United States, but said his country has the \u201cabsolute and legitimate right to defend itself against a military onslaught; however, this cannot logically or honestly be wielded as an excuse to wage war against the noble Cuban people.\u201d<\/p>\n He warned that a U.S. military action against Cuba would lead to a \u201cbloodbath.\u201d<\/p>\n The Herald could not independently confirm the intelligence about the drones. The White House, the office of the Director of National Intelligence and the CIA did not reply to questions about Cuban drones. A White House official said in response to the Herald\u2019s inquiry: \u201cAs the President stated, Cuba is a failed country that has been horribly run for many years and is only heading in one direction \u2013 down. Its flailing leaders should make a deal with the United States.\u201d<\/p>\n Juan Gonzalez, a former National Security Council director for the Western Hemisphere under President Joe Biden, said he did not see evidence at the time of Cuba acquiring drones.<\/p>\n \u201cDo they have 300 drones? Maybe,\u201d he said. \u201cBut it\u2019s a joke of a stockpile if the story is true, and there is zero information to support the idea that they have plans to attack GITMO. They barely have fuel for naval patrols. This is a lazy pretext for the use of force.\u201d<\/p>\n \u2018Limited military capabilities\u2019<\/p>\n Another former senior government official who served under Biden, who asked not to be identified to speak about sensitive intelligence, questioned the likelihood of Iranian attack drones being used against the U.S. naval base in Guant\u00e1namo. The person said there had been information about Russian arms sales to Cuba, but not from Iran.<\/p>\n \u201cCuba has very limited military capabilities and its preferred equipment provider has been Russia, not Iran,\u201d the former U.S. official said. \u201cIt\u2019s credible that Cuba has been acquiring additional capabilities, including drone-related capabilities from Russia.\u201d<\/p>\n Frank Mora, a former assistant secretary of defense for the Western Hemisphere, said whatever the truth about the intelligence, its release, along with the CIA director\u2019s Havana visit, the news on Castro\u2019s impending indictment, and sanctions on the military conglomerate GAESA and government officials, are all intended to increase the pressure on the Cuban government.<\/p>\n \u201cI don’t think military action is imminent, but it is possible; it cannot be ruled out,\u201d said Mora. \u201cI think what happened in the last couple of weeks is all part of what the administration does, which is to try to intimidate and increase the pressure in the hope that the regime will make more concessions in the negotiations. I think it\u2019s more about that than the pretext, but that doesn\u2019t mean that they\u2019re not trying at some point to build a case, a justification for military action.\u201d<\/p>\n On Tuesday, Trump again said a deal with Cuba is possible.<\/p>\n Asked by reporters whether he is confident about a diplomatic deal with Cuba, Trump replied: \u201cI think so. I can do that whether you change the regime or not. It has been a rough regime and they killed a lot of people. But it\u2019s a country that really needs help. They can\u2019t turn on the lights, they can\u2019t eat. We don\u2019t want to see that.\u201d<\/p>\n
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