{"id":277816,"date":"2026-05-20T08:20:26","date_gmt":"2026-05-20T08:20:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/277816\/"},"modified":"2026-05-20T08:20:26","modified_gmt":"2026-05-20T08:20:26","slug":"democrats-take-lead-in-florida-senate-and-governor-races-poll","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/277816\/","title":{"rendered":"Democrats Take Lead in Florida Senate and Governor Races\u2014Poll"},"content":{"rendered":"

Florida<\/a> has trended decisively Republican<\/a> in recent elections, but a new poll<\/a> of the 2026 races for governor<\/a> and U.S. Senate suggests Democrats<\/a> are mounting a competitive challenge ahead of this year’s midterms.<\/p>\n

A survey commissioned by Freedom Project USA and conducted online by Change Research, a Democratic-aligned polling<\/a> firm, shows Democrat<\/a>ic former Representative David Jolly narrowly leading Republican Representative Byron Donalds in a potential general election<\/a> matchup for governor, offering an early signal that the race may be tighter than Florida\u2019s recent Republican dominance<\/a> might imply.<\/p>\n

It also shows Democratic retired Army Lieutenant Colonel Alex Vindman narrowly leading Republican Senator Ashley Moody with likely voters in a key race as Democrats try to take control of the Senate, while Democrat Jos\u00e9 Javier Rodr\u00edguez leads in the state attorney general’s race against incumbent James Uthmeier.<\/p>\n

A spokesperson for Donalds\u2019 campaign directed Newsweek to a post on X from chief strategist Ryan Smith, who dismissed the survey as unreliable, pointing to its Democratic links and writing: “The fact is Trump-endorsed Byron Donalds will be Florida\u2019s next governor.”<\/p>\n

\u201cFloridians are fed up with Ashley Moody\u2019s failed leadership that is driving up the cost of gas, groceries, insurance, rent and other essentials,\u201d Albert Fujii, a spokesman for the Vindman campaign, told Newsweek. \u201cWe are going to win in November because Alex\u2019s Florida First Agenda to cut costs and fight corruption is resonating with not just Democrats, but Republicans and Independents as well. We are all gas, no brakes.\u201d<\/p>\n

Key Points From the PollFor governor, Jolly leads Donalds 46 percent to 42 percent among likely votersVindman leads Moody 47 percent to 45 percent in the Senate raceRodr\u00edguez leads in the attorney general race 45 percent to 41 percent against incumbent UthmeierDemocratic voter motivation is 13 points higher than Republicans<\/a> (88 percent to 75 percent)\u00a0Independents<\/a> broke heavily toward Democrats for governor, giving Jolly an 18-point edgeCost of living dominated voter concerns, with 70 percent saying they are falling behindOther recent polls still show Republicans ahead and favored overallWhat To Know<\/p>\n

A Change Research poll in May found a Democrat leading the gubernatorial race amid shifting independents and rising economic dissatisfaction.<\/p>\n

It points to a possible opening for Democrats in a state that has trended Republican at both the state and national levels.<\/p>\n

Both parties may need to refocus their strategies on independents, turnout and economic concerns as the midterm races take shape.<\/p>\n

Why It Matters<\/p>\n

Florida was one of the country\u2019s defining swing states as recently as the early 2010s but has since moved firmly into the Republican column, delivering increasingly large GOP margins in recent elections.<\/p>\n

Any sign of renewed competitiveness has national implications for the midterms, where control of key offices\u2014and broader political momentum\u2014is at stake.<\/p>\n

\"Left:What the New Poll Shows<\/p>\n

The Change Research poll was conducted May 13-16, surveying 2,070 registered voters, including 1,593 who said they are likely to vote in the 2026 midterms<\/a>, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points.\u00a0<\/p>\n

In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, Jolly led Donalds 46 percent to 42 percent among likely voters.\u00a0<\/p>\n

After respondents were given more detailed information about the candidates, including their policy positions and critiques raised by opponents, that lead widened to 48 percent to 41 percent.<\/p>\n

Much of Jolly’s advantage was driven by nonparty-affiliated voters.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Among independents\u2014who number in the millions in Florida\u2014Jolly led by 18 points, 46 percent to 28 percent, giving Democrats a potential path in a state where partisan voting is otherwise entrenched.<\/p>\n

The poll also showed a notable enthusiasm gap. Democratic voters reported motivation levels at 88 percent, compared with 75 percent among Republicans, a difference that could become decisive if it translates into turnout.<\/p>\n

Economic conditions dominate the political environment. Seventy percent of respondents said they are falling behind the cost of living, and 65 percent say Florida is not affordable for their family.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Everyday expenses\u2014from gas and groceries to insurance\u2014are cited as major sources of financial pressure.<\/p>\n

Senate Race Also Turns Competitive<\/p>\n

The same Change Research poll suggested a tightening\u2014and in this case a reversal\u2014of expectations in the Senate race.<\/p>\n

According to the survey, Vindman led Moody 47 percent to 45 percent among likely voters, a notable shift in a race where other recent polls have shown the Republican with a clearer advantage.<\/p>\n

The poll also found Rodr\u00edguez ahead of Uthmeier 45 percent to 41 percent in the race for attorney general, reinforcing the idea that the political environment may be improving for Democrats further down the ballot.<\/p>\n

The findings stand in contrast to other recent surveys, which have generally shown Republicans leading statewide contests in Florida, highlighting the degree to which the electoral landscape remains unsettled less than six months before Election Day.<\/p>\n

How the New Poll Compares With Others<\/p>\n

Other recent surveys have presented a more familiar picture, with Republicans maintaining an edge.<\/p>\n

A Florida Chamber of Commerce poll conducted by Cherry Communications from May 1-9 among 604 voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, found Donalds leading Jolly 47\u00a0percent to 39 percent.<\/p>\n

Stetson University polling of 848 likely voters, conducted March 15-April 13, with a plus or minus 4.1 percentage point margin of error, showed Donalds ahead 47 percent to 40 percent, while an Emerson College poll of 1,125 likely voters, conducted March 29-31, with a plus or minus 2.8 percentage point margin of error, put the Republican up 44 percent to 39\u00a0percent.<\/p>\n

Prediction markets reflect that broader trend, with Republicans still favored to hold the governorship despite signs of a tighter race.<\/p>\n

On U.S.-regulated prediction market Kalshi, Republicans are priced at roughly a 78 percent chance of winning, compared with about 21 percent for Democrats. On Polymarket, the GOP is given a similar edge, at around 80 percent to 21 percent.<\/p>\n

Prediction markets offer a snapshot of collective expectations, but can be thinly traded and are sensitive to narrative shifts rather than hard voter data.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Florida has trended decisively Republican in recent elections, but a new poll of the 2026 races for governor…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":277817,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[17532,8131,2811,28,30,29,6281,3464,44361,15699,22306,63435,11103,4219,412],"class_list":["post-277816","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-florida","tag-democrat","tag-democrats","tag-election","tag-florida","tag-florida-headlines","tag-florida-news","tag-governor","tag-independents","tag-midterm-elections","tag-midterms","tag-poll","tag-polling","tag-republican","tag-republicans","tag-ron-desantis"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/277816","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=277816"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/277816\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/277817"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=277816"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=277816"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=277816"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}