Griffin Wong gives you a preview, prediction and pick for tonight\u2019s game between the Tampa Bay Rays and the New York Yankees.<\/p>\n
Nearly one-third of the way through the season, the entire American League is deeply mediocre. So far, only four of the league\u2019s 15 teams are over .500, and the Athletics only just sneak over that mark at 26-24. The AL couldn\u2019t stand in sharper contrast with the NL, where nine different teams (including the entire NL Central) have a winning record.<\/p>\n
Two of those four teams will face off this weekend, when the AL East-leading Tampa Bay Rays travel to face the New York Yankees in a three-game set, with the opener beginning at 7:05 p.m. ET this evening in The Bronx.<\/p>\n
Nick Martinez will start the opener for Tampa Bay, while Gerrit Cole gets the call for the Yankees.<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook<\/a>.<\/p>\n Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees prediction, preview<\/p>\n The Rays were somewhat of an afterthought in the ultra-competitive AL East last season, finishing fourth at 77-85 while New York, the Boston Red Sox, and the Toronto Blue Jays all made the playoffs. This season, though, Tampa Bay has been unstoppable, winning eight of its last 10 games to climb to 33-15, good for the second-best record in baseball. After finishing last season just 14th in OPS, the Rays have jumped all the way to seventh, and Junior Caminero (.268\/.357\/.508 slash line with 13 homers) has been nearly as good as he was last season, when he hit 45 homers and finished ninth in MVP voting. Additionally, Jonathan Aranda leads the American League in RBI\u2019s and Chandler Simpson in triples. While Tampa Bay\u2019s bullpen has taken a slight step back after losing Pete Fairbanks and Eric Orze, its rotation has been the best in the majors so far, with Martinez and Steven Matz proving to be brilliant free agency acquisitions.<\/p>\n The Rays\u2019 brilliance in their first season back at Tropicana Field has overshadowed just how strong the Yankees have been. New York is 30-21, but it has had a run differential 27 runs better than the Rays\u2019, and though it is just 4-9 in its last 13 games, four of those losses were one-run affairs against fellow contenders in the Blue Jays and the Milwaukee Brewers. Expectedly, the Yankees have had one of the league\u2019s top offenses, as 2019 MVP Cody Bellinger has had his second-best season since his MVP campaign and somehow ranks just fourth on the team in OPS, behind Ben Rice, Aaron Judge, and Paul Goldschmidt. Additionally, after New York\u2019s bottom-10 bullpen last season ultimately did it in, it has a top-10 unit so far this season despite last season\u2019s acquisitions David Bednar and Camilo Doval continuing to struggle. Its rotation has been continually stellar, as Cam Schlittler leads all of the major leagues in ERA (Shohei Ohtani hasn\u2019t pitched enough to qualify).<\/p>\n Martinez trails only Schlittler in ERA, and while it might not be sustainable because he\u2019s never had better than a 3.10 mark in a season before, it\u2019s hard to argue that a guy who hasn\u2019t given up more than two earned runs in any start all season is suddenly going to have a stinker. In fact, over his last five starts, he\u2019s allowed a total of three runs in 31.2 innings. However, Statcast doesn\u2019t paint quite so positive a picture; while his expected ERA is still above the league median, it only ranks in the 53rd percentile (3.86). Additionally, while Martinez has exceptional control and does a good job limiting hard hits \u2014 which should be an asset against by far the best slugging lineup in baseball \u2014\u00a0he struggles to induce either whiffs or strikeouts, which should help mitigate some of the Yankees\u2019 biggest weaknesses. If New York puts more balls in play than usual, it\u2019ll put a lot of pressure on Tampa Bay\u2019s defense, which has merely been a slightly-above-average unit this season. To his credit, Martinez has been somewhat better on the road throughout his career, but the Yankees have a league-best .829 OPS at home. I\u2019d still expect a somewhat effective outing \u2014 say, five innings and two runs \u2014 but he might not be quite as dominant as he\u2019s been for most of the season.<\/p>\n Cole can probably hold his own. He\u2019ll be making his first start since 2024 after undergoing Tommy John surgery last March, but in his last complete season (2023), he won the American League\u2019s Cy Young Award after five previous top-five finishes. While he wasn\u2019t quite as good in 2024, he still finished with a solid 3.41 ERA and was mostly undone by a couple of blowup outings. He\u2019s made six rehab starts this season, and in his lone Triple-A outing, he gave up just one run in 5.1 innings. Still, Statcast didn\u2019t love his stuff in 2024; while he finished with a 64th-percentile expected ERA across 17 starts, he also allowed just a 25th-percentile average exit velocity. Though the contact-oriented Rays rank dead last in that category, he also had below-average chase, whiff, and walk rates, and they have the best bat-to-ball skills in the majors. Cole also struggled to induce ground balls, which could help mitigate one of Tampa Bay\u2019s weaknesses. I still expect a similar line (five innings and two or three earned runs), especially since the Rays have struggled away from Tropicana Field, but it isn\u2019t exactly the easiest matchup for him.<\/p>\n Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees pick, best bet<\/p>\n Best Bet: Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline (+130)<\/a><\/p>\n Even if run differential suggests that New York has actually been better than Tampa Bay this season, a 4.5-game margin is pretty significant, and the Rays are in much hotter form. I don\u2019t know if Martinez is 1.51 ERA good, but he\u2019s good enough to out-duel Cole, who has only one good rehab start under his belt. Expecting a win against arguably the best team in baseball in his return is a lot to ask for.<\/p>\n Strong Lean: Chandler Simpson 2+ Hits + Runs + Stolen Bases (-125)<\/a><\/p>\n