Last week\u2019s record<\/a>: 3-4, -1.68 units
Season record: 21-28-1, -10.12 units, -18.3% ROI<\/p>\nI see a handful of plays for Week 10, including some bets in a few marquee games. Don\u2019t sleep on Navy and North Texas! That\u2019s a big game. Anyway, shop around for the best price and good luck!<\/p>\n
Week 10 best betsNavy at North Texas under 66.5 (-110)<\/p>\n
Worst price to bet: Under 65.5 (-110)<\/p>\n
Shop around as this is the best price in market. Admittedly, I\u2019m disappointed that I\u2019m going to be betting an under in a sneaky great game this weekend. The American is a major player in the CFP race, and both of these teams have realistic shots of making the playoff. Two different styles of play, as North Texas will be a good bit above average pace, while Navy will play really slow. The issue is that both offenses have been super efficient this year, and Navy\u2019s defense might not be able to hold up. Still, despite my model knowing these things, I have this pegged for the low 60s.<\/p>\n
Minnesota -3.5 (-105) vs. Michigan State<\/p>\n
Worst price to bet: Minnesota -4 (-110)<\/p>\n
My model thinks Michigan State is really poor, especially on the defensive side of the ball, and while Minnesota\u2019s offense isn\u2019t going to light up the scoreboard, they should have a distinct advantage to put up some points for their home fans. The matchup that I really like, though, is Minnesota\u2019s defense against this Spartan offense. Aidan Chiles has his moments, but at the end of the day, he\u2019s not consistent enough down-to-down to move the ball against a solid unit. Michigan State does not do well on early downs, and Minnesota is great at getting you into third and long.<\/p>\n
South Alabama -4 (-108) vs. Louisiana<\/p>\n
Worst price to bet: South Alabama -4 (-110)<\/p>\n
This is a tough one to stomach because South Alabama\u2019s defense is very bad, but the best unit in this game is the South Alabama offense, and I\u2019m not sure it\u2019s close. I don\u2019t have much other analysis other than Louisiana might find some success on the ground against South Alabama\u2019s defense, but in a battle of two bad teams, I\u2019ll take the team at home and with the better offense.<\/p>\n
Tennessee -2.5 (-105) vs. Oklahoma<\/p>\n
Worst price to bet: Tennessee -2.5 (-110)<\/p>\n
Oklahoma failed to get pressure on more than 30 percent of opponent dropbacks against Michigan, South Carolina and Ole Miss. In other words, when they\u2019ve stepped up in class, the defense has dropped off quite a bit. Throw in the fact that the offense hasn\u2019t quite looked the same since John Mateer came back from injury, and I think it\u2019s fair to say that they\u2019ll have a hard time keeping up with Tennessee here. This is a de facto elimination game for the playoffs; give me the Vols.<\/p>\n
Georgia -7 (-110) vs. Florida<\/p>\n
Worst price to bet: Georgia -7 (-115)<\/p>\n
The way to attack this Georgia defense is through the air, as they have not been able to get after the quarterback this year. Luckily for them, Florida hasn\u2019t been able to move the ball consistently when dropping back to pass this season. Now, there is an argument that the firing of Billy Napier could open up the offense a bit for the Gators, but I\u2019m not buying it. Georgia is the much better football team, and they\u2019re the better-coached team, and my model has Georgia by double digits.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"My College Football Projection Model just can\u2019t catch a break when it comes to its best bets. Now,…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":28873,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[143,28,2530,30,29,4669,21363,2522,4647,6785,10532,6790,4644,5775,2533],"class_list":["post-28872","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-florida","tag-college-football","tag-florida","tag-florida-gators","tag-florida-headlines","tag-florida-news","tag-georgia-bulldogs","tag-louisiana-lafayette-ragin-cajuns","tag-michigan-state-spartans","tag-minnesota-golden-gophers","tag-navy-midshipmen","tag-north-texas-mean-green","tag-oklahoma-sooners","tag-south-alabama-jaguars","tag-sports-betting","tag-tennessee-volunteers"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28872","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28872"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28872\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/28873"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28872"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28872"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28872"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}