Florida’s population has grown an average of 539 people a day since last July.<\/p>\n
To borrow a line from the Beatles, “Where do they all come from?”<\/p>\n
Well, mostly from the Northeast, but where exactly are they headed?<\/p>\n
“It’s a great time to be in Florida and a great time to be in Miami. The challenge is where to put all these people.”<\/p>\n
Those were the comments from Ron Shuffield, President & CEO of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices EWM Realty, who provided his company’s real estate analysis last week for the first quarter of 2026.<\/p>\n
“What we’re selling is the lifestyle,\u201d he said. \u201cWe just need to get more listings. The first quarter is looking up.\u201d<\/p>\n
That\u2019s especially true in the high-end market.<\/p>\n
Shuffield pointed out that the area’s visionary leaders — and the influx of immigrants — have made their impact over the past 50 years after the city learned the “hard way” through riots, crime and drug dealings.<\/p>\n
Showing a colorful illustration of Miami’s tremendous growth, he said, “All of that has happened in most of our lifetimes,” specifically pointing out Bayside (opened in 1987); the P\u00e9rez Art Museum (2013); the Frost Museum of Science (2017), the Adrienne Arsht Center (20 years ago); and the Kaseya Center (26 years ago).<\/p>\n
“Now, we’re getting ready to have our first 100-story building, the Waldorf-Astoria. It’s kind of fun to look at. Looks like a kid’s building block (toy) where you’d twist the blocks a little (at different floors).”<\/p>\n
Adding 1.9 million people over the past five years has, indeed, been a tremendous challenge, something real estate agents thrive on in single-family homes and condo sales, especially on Key Biscayne, where EWM is the market leader, Shuffield said.<\/p>\n
The rental market also “is still vibrant, although prices have settled a bit,” he said.<\/p>\n
With interest rates staying about 6.46% in April, Shuffield said 46% of EWM sales are now cash.<\/p>\n
“We’re probably not going to see a 3% rate (again) in our lifetime ,” he said.<\/p>\n
Breaking it down<\/p>\n
The median sold price of single-family homes within Miami-Dade County has increased an amazing 363% over the past 15 years, from the $150,000 back in January 2011.<\/p>\n
“In 2021, so many deals were made, because interest rates were low,” Shuffield said.<\/p>\n
Just since March 2024, that median price has jumped from $650,000 to $695,000 in March 2026.<\/p>\n
Condos, on the other hand, had a different story. That median price within Miami-Dade was $445,000 in March 2024; now it’s $430,000. Many buyers are not wanting the sellers to pay the assessment fees that come with recent mandatory inspections that were buoyed by the Champlain Towers tragedy in Surfside.<\/p>\n
Shuffield specifically compared Miami’s current “high-end” market to 2012, when just 15 homes in the $5 million-plus range were listed. Now, there are 539 homes over $5 million available to sell.<\/p>\n
As far as closings, five homes in the first quarter of 2012 sold over $5 million; this year, that average has skyrocketed to 38.5 sales these past four months. “The direction is very strong in the high-end market,” he said.<\/p>\n
In fact, eight homes have sold more than $100 million.<\/p>\n
Looking at the condo inventory, six years ago, there were 342 on the market. Today, it’s 459. In the $5 million condo market, there was an average of five in 2012, but now 22 in the past four months.<\/p>\n
People are buying lots to build ultra-luxury homes in Coral Gables, Pinecrest and Key Biscayne.<\/p>\n
For example, Shuffield said in 1984, lots in Pinecrest were going for $125,000.<\/p>\n
“Now, lots are $3.3 million and the houses being built on them are $10 million plus. We have a growing demand for those prices … ” he said.<\/p>\n
Shuffield always remembers the line his professor told him in his first college economics course.<\/p>\n
“If the demand grows and supply shrinks, you’re going to have higher prices,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n