With the official start to the Atlantic hurricane season beginning June 1, top forecasters have already released their predictions for the upcoming season. <\/p>\n
One of the nation\u2019s top forecasters when it comes to the Atlantic hurricane season released its first predictions for the 2026 season, with some encouraging news for Southwest Floridians. <\/p>\n
Colorado State University hurricane researchers have predicted a \u201csomewhat below-average\u201d season in their initial 2026 forecast. <\/p>\n
Citing a \u201crobust\u201d El Ni\u00f1o as a primary factor, the CSU team are predicting 13 named storms, of which they anticipate six to become hurricanes, and two to become major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). <\/p>\n
CSU officials said these numbers are below the long-term season average of 14, seven, and three, respectively. Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. <\/p>\n
\u201cSo far, the 2026 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to the 2006, 2009, 2015 and 2023 seasons,\u201d said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at CSU and lead author of the report, in a release.<\/p>\n
\u201cOur analog seasons ranged from well below-average Atlantic hurricane activity to somewhat above average. While the average of our analog seasons is somewhat below normal, the large spread in observed activity in our analog years highlights the high levels of uncertainty that typically are associated with our early April outlook.\u201d<\/p>\n
As always, hurricane activity comes down to the presence of El Ni\u00f1o, which is a natural climate pattern characterized by the warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.<\/p>\n
CSU officials stated the tropical Pacific currently has weak La Ni\u00f1a conditions. <\/p>\n
\u201cLa Ni\u00f1a is effectively the opposite of El Ni\u00f1o and is characterized by cooler than normal waters in the eastern and central tropical Pacific,\u201d CSU\u2019s report stated. \u201cHowever, these conditions are forecast to rapidly transition to El Ni\u00f1o in the next few months. While the intensity of the likely El Ni\u00f1o is uncertain, the CSU team anticipates that a moderate to strong El Ni\u00f1o is most likely by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season from August-October.\u201d<\/p>\n
CSU officials stated that currently, waters in the western tropical Atlantic are warmer than normal, while waters in the eastern tropical and subtropical Atlantic are slightly cooler than normal. <\/p>\n
\u201cOverall, currently observed sea surface temperatures across the tropical and subtropical Atlantic present mixed signals for the upcoming hurricane season,\u201d CSU\u2019s report states. \u201cWarmer waters in the western Atlantic would favor above-normal activity, while cooler waters in the eastern tropical and subtropical Atlantic would favor below-normal activity. A warm Atlantic favors an above-average season, since a hurricane\u2019s fuel source is warm ocean water. Additionally, a warm Atlantic leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere. Both conditions favor hurricane formation.\u201d<\/p>\n
In its hurricane landfalling probability for 2025, researchers put the likelihood of a major hurricane for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas at 20% (average from 1880-2020 is 27%).<\/p>\n
As always, the researchers caution coastal residents to take proper precautions.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt takes only one storm near you to make this an active season for you,\u201d said Michael Bell in the release. <\/p>\n
This is the 43rd year that CSU has issued an Atlantic forecast. The CSU team will issue updates to this forecast on June 10, July 8 and Aug. 5.<\/p>\n
According to AccuWeather, the 2026 season is expected to fall below the 10-year average for both total storms and hurricanes, even at the higher end of AccuWeather\u2019s forecast.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s very important that everybody from South Texas all the way to Maine prepares equally for each and every hurricane season, regardless of the forecast,\u201d said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva in a release. \u201cEven if it\u2019s expected to be a slightly below average hurricane season, we can still see major hits across the United States.\u201d <\/p>\n
All-in-all, AccuWeather is forecasting 11 to 16 named storms, with four to seven being hurricanes. Of those four to seven, AccuWeather is predicting to two to four will be \u201cmajor\u201d hurricanes, or storms that are Category 3 or higher. As for direct impacts to the U.S., AccuWeather experts are forecasting three to five total, with the central and eastern Gulf Coast noted as areas with higher-than-historical-average risk of \u201csignificant\u201d tropical impacts this year. <\/p>\n
AccuWeather experts expect El Ni\u00f1o to increase disruptive wind shear and reduce storm activity, most notably later on in the season. Long-range experts of AccuWeather state there is a 15% chance of a \u201cSuper El Ni\u00f1o\u201d developing in the second half of the hurricane season. <\/p>\n
\u201cIf a Super El Ni\u00f1o occurs, there could be even less activity in the Atlantic,\u201d experts stated. <\/p>\n
Another factor going into the season could be exceptionally warm Atlantic waters. <\/p>\n
\u201cWater temperatures across much of the Gulf, Caribbean and Atlantic are forecast to reach exceptionally warm levels again this summer. That heat extends hundreds of feet below the surface, providing additional fuel for storms,\u201d DaSilva said. \u201cAs a result, we are very concerned about the risk of rapid intensification this hurricane season.\u201d <\/p>\n
When it comes to U.S. landfall potential, experts state that storms may form in the Gulf, western Caribbean, or western Atlantic off the Southeast coast. When storms develop near the states, there is less time for those facing impacts to prepare. <\/p>\n
\u201cStorms that form within a few hundred miles of the coast can leave people, businesses, and officials with less time to prepare and evacuate,\u201d DaSilva explained. \u201cThese \u2018homegrown development\u2019 storms that spin up near the U.S. coast can pose bigger threats with a lot less time to react, compared to storms that form off the coast of Africa and take a week or more to trek across the open Atlantic.\u201d <\/p>\n
AccuWeather experts warn of complacency, especially following a year that did not see a hurricane make landfall in the U.S. <\/p>\n
\u201cThere is no reason to let your guard down this year. It only takes one storm to cause major damage, disruption and heartache,\u201d DaSilva said. \u201cReview your insurance coverage, safety plans, and local evacuation routes now. Make sure your emergency supplies are stocked up.\u201d <\/p>\n
Cone map gets updated look<\/p>\n
Among its improvements for the 2026 hurricane season, the National Hurricane Center is implementing what it says is an improved hurricane track cone map.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe tropical cyclone graphic helps communities remain vigilant from the dangers posed by wind hazards associated with hurricanes and tropical storms, including in locations away from the coast,\u201d the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in a release. \u201cIn 2026, the forecast cone will now include tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for inland areas. The additional information follows a successful experimental phase last year, which demonstrated the improved forecast cone enabled inland communities to better understand and prepare for the danger posed by tropical cyclone winds.\u201d<\/p>\n
According to the National Hurricane Center release, the new cone graphic:<\/p>\n
\u2022 Incorporates all land-based (coastal and inland) tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings in effect for the continental United States, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands;<\/p>\n
\u2022 Uses single shading for the entire 5-day outlook cone;<\/p>\n
\u2022 Legend depicts symbols for areas where a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning are both in effect (represented by diagonal pink and blue lines);<\/p>\n
\u2022 Full and intermediate Tropical Cyclone Advisories are\/will be publicly available on hurricanes.gov.<\/p>\n
NHC also will introduce a new experimental version of the NHC\u2019s Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone, the release states. Since its debut in 2002, the cone has shown where the tropical cyclone\u2019s forecast center is likely to go, based on past forecast calculations.<\/p>\n
\u2013 Compiled by CJ Haddad <\/p>\n
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale<\/p>\n
Category 1<\/p>\n
Winds: 75 to 95 mph<\/p>\n
Damage: Homes could have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding and gutters. Large branches of trees will snap and shallowly rooted trees may be toppled. Extensive damage to power lines and poles likely will result in power outages.<\/p>\n
Category 2<\/p>\n
\u2022 Winds: 96 to 110 mph<\/p>\n
\u2022 Damage: Homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last several days.<\/p>\n
Category 3<\/p>\n
\u2022 Winds: 111 to 130 mph<\/p>\n
\u2022 Damage: Homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes.<\/p>\n
Category 4<\/p>\n
\u2022 Winds: 131 to 155 mph<\/p>\n
\u2022 Damage: Homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and\/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks. Some of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.<\/p>\n
Category 5<\/p>\n
\u2022 Winds: More than 155 mph<\/p>\n
\u2022 Damage: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.<\/p>\n
\u2013 National Hurricane Center<\/p>\n
2026 Hurricane Names<\/p>\n
\u2022 Arthur<\/p>\n
\u2022 Bertha<\/p>\n
\u2022 Cristobal<\/p>\n
\u2022 Dolly<\/p>\n
\u2022 Edouard<\/p>\n
\u2022 Fay<\/p>\n
\u2022 Gonzalo<\/p>\n
\u2022 Hanna<\/p>\n
\u2022 Isaias<\/p>\n
\u2022 Josephine<\/p>\n
\u2022 Kyle<\/p>\n
\u2022 Leah<\/p>\n
\u2022 Marco<\/p>\n
\u2022 Nana<\/p>\n
\u2022 Omar<\/p>\n
\u2022 Paulette<\/p>\n
\u2022 Rene<\/p>\n
\u2022 Sally<\/p>\n
\u2022 Teddy<\/p>\n
\u2022 Vicky<\/p>\n
\u2022 Wilfred<\/p>\n
Source: World Meteorological Association <\/p>\n