Now, in the first weekend of November, a few days before the release of the first College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday, what we learned about the CFP is that the ACC\u2019s proletariat has usurped the blue bloods. The problem is, it might hurt the conference\u2019s chances of getting multiple teams into the 12-team field.<\/p>\n
After Florida State and Clemson \u2014 winners of 13 of the last 14 ACC titles \u2014 crashed out of the Playoff race weeks ago, Miami was pushed to the brink on Saturday. And to make the ACC even more chaotic heading into the final four weeks of the regular season, No. 8 Georgia Tech (8-1, 5-1) took its first loss of the season at NC State<\/a>.<\/p>\n The 10th-ranked Hurricanes (6-2, 2-2) lost for the second time in three weeks as a double-digit favorite, falling at SMU 26-20 in overtime<\/a> in a game that featured much of the same self-destructive behavior Miami showed against Louisville two weeks ago.<\/p>\n The officials did the Hurricanes no favors late either, but it was hard for Miami to point fingers.<\/p>\n \u201cWe didn\u2019t take care of business, and that\u2019s completely on us,\u201d coach Mario Cristobal said. \u201cWhen you make that many mistakes and they are flat-out mistakes \u2026 you allow yourself to be put in a position where you can get beat.\u201d<\/p>\n The 13-person CFP selection committee will weigh in on Tuesday, but Miami\u2019s problems start with its place in the ACC standings. Six teams with one or zero losses are stacked in front of the Hurricanes, starting with \u2026 Virginia (8-1, 5-0). The Cardiac Cavaliers did it again, winning yet another close game at Cal, and are alone atop the table (their loss to NC State was scheduled as a nonconference game). Remarkable for a program that hasn\u2019t even been to a bowl game since 2019.<\/p>\n Georgia Tech is now stuck in a group of five ACC teams with one league loss that also includes SMU and Louisville, which has the best odds in the conference to reach the Playoff at 40 percent, according to Austin Mock\u2019s projections<\/a> for The Athletic.<\/p>\n The others blocking the Hurricanes\u2019 path to the ACC title game in Charlotte: Pitt, winner of five straight ACC games for the first time since 2015, and Duke, which won at Clemson for the first time since 1980<\/a>.<\/p>\n Mathematically, the Hurricanes still have a path to win a conference title, but it\u2019s bleak.<\/p>\n Just last year, Cristobal\u2019s team put itself in a similar situation, fading even later in the season. The Miami defense collapsed down the stretch, and the Hurricanes missed the CFP with a 10-2 record.<\/p>\n The offense is failing Miami this year. Carson Beck, who transferred in from Georgia to replace Cam Ward, has thrown six interceptions in two losses and hasn\u2019t gotten much help from any of his receivers not named Malachi Toney.<\/p>\n The Hurricanes\u2019 CFP odds are down to 15 percent, according to Mock\u2019s model, and they are probably out of mulligans.<\/p>\n What Miami has in the bank, though, is an impressive nonconference resume with victories over No. 12 Notre Dame and USF (and Florida, FWIW). That should keep the Canes in the mix if they can fix their issues. It would help a lot if the Fighting Irish and Bulls play their way into the 12-team field, too.<\/p>\n As much as the uprising in the ACC has been fun, it doesn\u2019t necessarily set up the conference well for multiple CFP bids if Miami isn\u2019t involved. While the Hurricanes took care of business in the nonconference, none of the other contenders did much of note. Duke lost to Illinois and Tulane. SMU lost to Baylor and TCU. Pitt lost to West Virginia.<\/p>\n The best nonconference victory among the bunch? It may be Louisville over Sun Belt power James Madison.<\/p>\n Georgia Tech can rectify that on Thanksgiving weekend against rival Georgia. Kirby Smart\u2019s Bulldogs aren\u2019t as dominant<\/a> as they used to be, but as the coach keeps saying: They are hard to kill. They proved it again with a fourth-quarter comeback against Florida<\/a>.<\/p>\n The Yellow Jackets still have a 30 percent chance to reach the CFP after the loss to NC State.<\/p>\n We said this after Miami lost to Louisville, and it is probably still true: The ACC\u2019s best-case scenario for multiple bids still involves Miami winning out and getting an at-large bid, and an upstart getting in as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions.<\/p>\n And because these conferences are too big, there is plenty of potential for tiebreaker madness because a lot of these contenders don\u2019t play each other.<\/p>\n Here are the big games in the ACC this month: Virginia at Duke, Nov. 15; Louisville at SMU and Pitt at Georgia Tech, Nov. 22; and Miami at Pitt, Nov. 29.<\/p>\n Just like we all would have predicted in September.<\/p>\n \n Georgia Tech\u2019s upset loss to NC State further muddies the ACC\u2019s Playoff outlook. (Zachary Taft \/ Imagn Images)<\/p>\n Reassessing the Big Ten<\/p>\n The assumption in the Big Ten is No. 1 Ohio State (8-0), No. 2 Indiana (9-0) and No. 6 Oregon are on a fast track to the CFP, and that very well could be all the representation the conference gets this postseason.<\/p>\n The Buckeyes<\/a> and Hoosiers continued to roll Saturday, and there is no reason to think a Big Ten championship game matchup is not inevitable.<\/p>\n As for the Ducks (7-1), they were off, and their last month\u2019s schedule makes them far from a lock to make the 12-team field for a second straight season. Oregon\u2019s final four opponents are a combined 24-9.<\/p>\n Oregon visits Iowa (6-2) next week, follows that with consecutive home games against Minnesota (6-3) and USC (6-2), and then finishes at rival Washington (6-2).<\/p>\n The Trojans stayed very much in the race with a victory at Nebraska, which had to play much of the second half without injured quarterback Dylan Raiola<\/a>.<\/p>\n Coach Lincoln Riley\u2019s team has been out of CFP contention by November the past two seasons after coming up a victory short of the four-team Playoff in 2022 with Heisman winner Caleb Williams.<\/p>\n \u201cCome win in a place like this against a good football team \u2014 a night kick, crowd riled up,\u201d Riley told reporters. \u201cIs it a sign of progress? Of course it is.\u201d<\/p>\n The Trojans, whose odds increased to 21 percent, play three of their last four at home, including against Iowa in two weeks. The lone road game is at Oregon, USC\u2019s first game against the Ducks as members of the Big Ten after decades squaring off in the Pac-12.<\/p>\n Michigan<\/a> (7-2) also continues to hang around the race at 13 percent, but it will need to make it five straight against Ohio State to make it happen.<\/p>\n Eliminators<\/p>\n Joining Nebraska in the done pile is No. 14 Tennessee after the Volunteers (6-3) outplayed No. 18 Oklahoma (7-2) for much of the game but made too many mistakes to put the Sooners away.<\/p>\n Sooners-Vols was billed as an elimination game<\/a>, but it might not have been for OU. Oklahoma<\/a> has a week off before playing at No. 4 Alabama, No. 19 Missouri and LSU.<\/p>\n Of course, it depends upon what the other options might be, but if there is a team that could put together a case for being in the CFP at 9-3, it would probably be the Sooners \u2014 though their victories against Auburn and South Carolina aren\u2019t carrying much juice, and who knows what kind of effort LSU will be putting forth by Thanksgiving weekend.<\/p>\n The SEC still has seven teams with two or fewer losses overall, including Texas<\/a> (7-2), which played maybe its best three quarters of the season to beat Vanderbilt 34-31<\/a>. The Commodores (7-2) gave Texas a scare in the fourth quarter.<\/p>\n The Longhorns probably have the toughest path among the contenders, with games against No. 5 Georgia and No. 3 Texas A&M still to come. The toughest path also equals opportunity.<\/p>\n This could fall into place fairly easily for the SEC. Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia and Ole Miss are all done playing each other. A&M\u2019s projected odds to make the CFP are up to 99 percent. The other three are all at 89 percent or better. They could all get through the regular season 11-1 or better and comfortably secure CFP spots no matter how the conference race sorts out.<\/p>\n The most interesting contender continues to be Vanderbilt (7-2). The Commodores have consecutive home games \u2014 sandwiching an idle week \u2014 against Auburn and Kentucky coming up before finishing the season at Tennessee. Outside of the top four, Vandy has the best odds to make the CFP at 20 percent.<\/p>\n Four more things you need to know about the Playoff right now<\/p>\n \u2022 Much like Miami could use Notre Dame continuing to win, it would certainly help the Fighting Irish if the Hurricanes didn\u2019t flop down the stretch. Though Notre Dame suddenly has an unexpected quality victory opportunity developing at Pitt in a few weeks.<\/p>\n \u2022 The Big 12 race opened up for about a week. It quickly became much clearer Saturday when No. 13 Texas Tech (8-1) ripped Kansas State to set up a huge game next week against No. 10 BYU. ESPN\u2019s \u201cCollege GameDay\u201d is heading to Lubbock, Texas, for what could turn out to be a Big 12 title game preview against the Cougars (8-0). It\u2019ll be two straight weeks in Big 12 country for Pat McAfee, Nick Saban and company after setting up shop in Salt Lake City on Saturday morning for Cincinnati-Utah. The Utes handed the surprising Bearcats (7-2) their first conference loss and kept their faint hopes of reaching the league championship game alive. Utah needs a lot of help, with losses to both Texas Tech and BYU. Don\u2019t count out the Bearcats, who host BYU in a couple of weeks.<\/p>\n \u2022 We buried the Mountain West after Boise State beat UNLV, but San Diego State is demanding attention. Even with a coach in Sean Lewis who made a name for himself as the architect of a fast-paced, potent offense, the Aztecs are once again a defensive force in the Mountain West. San Diego State (7-1), with a victory over Cal on its resume, has held six opponents to 10 points or fewer. If the American Conference contenders cannibalize each other down the stretch, the Aztecs can at least stay relevant by running the table and winning the MWC. San Diego State\u2019s CFP odds stand at 5 percent, according to Mock\u2019s projections.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/USATSI_27482340.jpg\")
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