{"id":305254,"date":"2026-06-12T14:50:17","date_gmt":"2026-06-12T14:50:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/305254\/"},"modified":"2026-06-12T14:50:17","modified_gmt":"2026-06-12T14:50:17","slug":"the-enso-update","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/305254\/","title":{"rendered":"The ENSO Update"},"content":{"rendered":"

El Ni\u00f1o conditions developed in May<\/a>, with warmer surface waters and weaker trade winds in the tropical Pacific Ocean. This isn\u2019t a surprise\u2014the chance of El Ni\u00f1o developing this year has been elevated since early last winter<\/a>\u2014but this is still a very interesting event! Lots to say, so let\u2019s get to it, Q & A-style.<\/p>\n

What is El Ni\u00f1o?<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o<\/a> is a pattern of warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the east-central equatorial Pacific that lasts for many months in a row. The location of warmer water changes where thunderstorm activity sets up in the tropics, with ripple effects all over the world, shifting jet streams and storm tracks. \u00a0<\/p>\n

Why do we care so much?<\/p>\n

Some of the recent discussion around El Ni\u00f1o makes it sound a little bit like it\u2019s a catastrophe that\u2019s being unleashed upon the Earth. However, it\u2019s really more of an opportunity\u2014an early look at where we might see weather and climate extremes. Extremes happen every year, but when a strong El Ni\u00f1o event comes along, we have more of a chance to prepare for them. Since El Ni\u00f1o can be predicted many months in advance, and we know how El Ni\u00f1o changes global atmospheric circulation, knowing it\u2019s coming allows us to anticipate and guard against potential impacts such as floods, drought, or temperature extremes. <\/p>\n

\"Rain<\/p>\n

Rain and snow prediction from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble<\/a> for January 2026.<\/p>\n

But El Ni\u00f1o is definitely bad news for some things, right?<\/p>\n

Yes, particularly areas where sea temperatures change a lot due to El Ni\u00f1o, such as the Galapagos Islands. El Ni\u00f1o leads to reduced upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water and can have profound impacts on the marine food web, endangering animals ranging from anchovies to penguins. Also, El Ni\u00f1o years can see lots of coral<\/a> bleaching in the tropical Pacific.<\/p>\n

\"Sea<\/p>\n

Sea surface temperature prediction from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble<\/a> for November 2026.<\/p>\n

Ugh! Any good news?<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o increases wind shear\u2014the change in wind direction and strength at height\u2014over the Atlantic Ocean. Wind shear makes it harder for hurricanes to form and grow, so El Ni\u00f1o is a major factor in NOAA\u2019s Atlantic hurricane season outlook. This year, the outlook gives a 55% chance of a below-average season<\/a> (but always be prepared<\/a> anyway!). Another upside to El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s tendency to shift rainfall patterns is the potential for alleviation of severe drought conditions<\/a> in the Southeast US. <\/p>\n

So what\u2019s going to happen?<\/p>\n

NOAA\u2019s forecast team<\/a> predicts that El Ni\u00f1o will strengthen through the summer and fall, potentially joining just a few other years in our record as a very strong event. In fact, the chance of very strong (primary El Ni\u00f1o-monitoring index, the RONI, of greater than 2.0 \u00baC) is about 63%.<\/p>\n

\"El
\nEl Ni\u00f1o strength probabilities<\/a> from NOAA<\/a> through early 2027. The colors show the estimated chance of each ENSO category. For example, in October\u2013December (OND) 2026, there\u2019s a 2% chance of weak El Ni\u00f1o conditions, 9% moderate, 27% strong, and 62% very strong.<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t you mean \u201csuper?\u201d<\/p>\n

Being a scientist means I must point out that \u201csuper\u201d isn\u2019t a technical category we use. That said, it\u2019s grown on me! Especially if this event meets or exceeds the peak levels seen in previous El Ni\u00f1o years, maybe we will need language to differentiate it.<\/p>\n

What else should I know?<\/p>\n

My editor said I had to keep this short, so there are lots of things I didn\u2019t get to cover! In coming months, I\u2019ll dig into how El Ni\u00f1o (and La Ni\u00f1a, which I didn\u2019t even get to mention in this article) change weather and climate around the world, why this forecast is unusual, how we measure El Ni\u00f1o, and many other topics. I\u2019ll also have a discussion board, once I figure out the technical side.<\/p>\n

Hey, wait\u2014is this the ENSO Blog?<\/p>\n

No, it is not. NOAA\u2019s ENSO Blog was a team effort that posted from 2014\u20132025. I was the lead writer for the ENSO Blog, often covering the monthly outlook. This new series, hosted at my home institution of the University of Miami\u2019s Rosenstiel School, is independent, and comments are my own perspective. I\u2019m looking forward to writing about subseasonal through decadal prediction, ENSO science, and a broad range of subjects. If you have suggestions or questions, drop me an email<\/a>!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"El Ni\u00f1o conditions developed in May, with warmer surface waters and weaker trade winds in the tropical Pacific…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":305255,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[117674,127788,127789,127711,123,125,124,12340],"class_list":["post-305254","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-miami","tag-atmospheric-and-earth-science","tag-el-nino-southern-oscillation","tag-emily-becker","tag-enso","tag-miami","tag-miami-headlines","tag-miami-news","tag-university-of-miami-rosenstiel-school-of-marine"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/305254","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=305254"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/305254\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/305255"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=305254"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=305254"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=305254"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}