{"id":32796,"date":"2025-11-04T14:12:07","date_gmt":"2025-11-04T14:12:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/32796\/"},"modified":"2025-11-04T14:12:07","modified_gmt":"2025-11-04T14:12:07","slug":"how-hurricane-melissa-exploded-into-a-monster","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/32796\/","title":{"rendered":"How Hurricane Melissa exploded into a monster"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The turbulence tossed the P-3 Orion around like a toy.<\/p>\n<p>Harnessed in his seat aboard the four-engine turboprop, University of Miami tropical cyclone researcher Andy Hazelton\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.aoml.noaa.gov\/people\/andrew-hazelton\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">struggled to process the meteorological data captured from one of the dropsondes that had been deployed into Hurricane Melissa\u2019s powerful winds.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe hit an updraft-downdraft combination that jolted the plane pretty good,\u201d he recalled of one of his Hurricane Hunter flights into the monster storm that left a trail of destruction across the Caribbean.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>As the P-3, nicknamed Kermit, punched through the storm\u2019s eyewall, the turbulence became so severe that the pilot aborted the mission and returned to home base in Central Florida, where crewmembers of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) disembarked to make a safety inspection of the plane.<\/p>\n<p>All was well with the aircraft, and flights into the storm to gather the critical data forecasters need to issue advisories and to plot storm tracks resumed the next day.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI had experienced very intense storms before,\u201d said Hazelton, an associate scientist at NOAA\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/cimas.earth.miami.edu\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies<\/a> (CIMAS), which is based at the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.earth.miami.edu\/index.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science<\/a>. \u201cBut Melissa was probably the worst.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Record-setting storm\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Melissa roared ashore in southwest Jamaica on Oct. 28 as a Category 5 hurricane with top winds of 185 miles per hour. But it will take \u201cextensive post-analysis to determine exactly where it ranks among landfalling Atlantic hurricanes,\u201d the National Hurricane Center (NHC) wrote in a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nhc.noaa.gov\/archive\/2025\/al13\/al132025.discus.030\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">discussion text<\/a> that Tuesday.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>What is already clear is that the storm, which also battered Cuba, Haiti, and parts of the Bahamas, stunned scientists in the way it behaved\u2014from undergoing extreme rapid intensification (gaining at least 58 miles per hour over a 24-hour period), rarely seen in a hurricane, to perhaps failing to undergo a typical eyewall replacement cycle.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt was much different than past cases of other storms this hurricane season in that it rapidly intensified, leveled off for a bit, then intensified again,\u201d Hazelton said of Melissa\u2019s periods of rapidly intensifying winds.<\/p>\n<p>During his Hurricane Hunter flight into the storm just before it struck Jamaica, he processed a dropsonde wind gust reading of 219 knots, or 252 miles per hour. \u201cWhen I saw the 113 [meters per second] (219 knots) just above the surface, I couldn\u2019t believe it,\u201d Hazelton <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/AndyHazelton\/status\/1983223753799524628\" rel=\"nofollow\">posted on X<\/a>. \u201cMy display only goes to 100 by default.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Hazelton\" class=\"\" height=\"529\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/hurricane-melissa-embed1-940x529.webp.webp\" style=\"border-width: 10px; margin: 10px;\" width=\"940\"\/><br \/>\nAndy Hazelton aboard Kermit during one of his flights into Melissa. Image courtesy of NOAA<\/p>\n<p>Initial analysis shows the reading is the \u201cstrongest such dropsonde wind gust recorded in a hurricane,\u201d Hazelton said.<\/p>\n<p>Warm Caribbean waters at depth fueled Melissa, ramping up its intensity. \u201cAlmost the entire Caribbean is like a degree above normal, so there\u2019s a lot of high ocean heat content,\u201d Hazelton explained. \u201cThe water below the surface was warmer than usual, and that\u2019s important because Melissa was a slow-moving storm that churned up water below. Normally, if a hurricane moves that slowly, it churns up cold water from deep below. But because the Caribbean is so warm way down, Melissa was churning up water that was still warm. So, it was able to just keep feeding itself.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>But warmer ocean heat content is not solely the reason for Melissa\u2019s intensity. Other factors were also at work, according to <a href=\"https:\/\/people.miami.edu\/profile\/dfd0699180381495c9930ce6e463de52\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Lynn \u201cNick\u201d Shay<\/a>, a professor of ocean sciences at the Rosenstiel School, who has been studying hurricanes\u2014particularly those in Gulf waters\u2014since 1979, often deploying on Hurricane Hunter flights both with NOAA out of Lakeland, Florida, and with the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron out of Keesler Air Force Base in Biloxi, Mississippi.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cUp until about Oct. 24, Melissa couldn\u2019t really get its act together,\u201d said Shay, referring to the storm\u2019s slow development. \u201cThe inner core circulation really wasn\u2019t there, and that\u2019s one of the reasons the storm was developing so slowly. But then it ramped up. In the vertical plane, looking down on the storm, the centers of Melissa started to line up. When that happened, it became more organized, forming the inner core.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAnd when that inner core is vertically aligned such as the way it happened with Melissa,\u201d he continued, \u201cthat\u2019s when you start getting increases of rapid intensity on the order of 30 millibars in 24 hours, especially over the deep warm water. Of course, Melissa far exceeded that.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Skipping a cycle<\/p>\n<p>In the months ahead, researchers will also pore over data to determine whether Melissa underwent a typical eyewall replacement cycle, a natural process in intense hurricanes during which an outer eyewall of thunderstorms forms, replacing the inner original eyewall and causing a short-lived decrease in the storm\u2019s strength.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Did Melissa skip that cycle? \u201cRight now, it\u2019s tough to say using the observations we currently have,\u201d said <a href=\"https:\/\/people.miami.edu\/profile\/b93c30c0a073b432b8b9931f681ea2a0\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Michael Fischer<\/a>, an assistant professor in the Rosenstiel School\u2019s Department of Atmospheric Sciences, who studies tropical cyclone structure and intensity change.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt definitely did not undergo a conventional eyewall replacement cycle, but there were some signs, similar to what we saw when [2017\u2019s] Hurricane Irma was rapidly intensifying to a Category 5 storm, that Melissa may have tried to form an outer eyewall at times, but then that outer eyewall essentially merged with the inner eyewall, and that inner eyewall just basically maintained its intensity, and the storm continued to strengthen. We still need to improve our understanding of that process.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Studying hurricanes like Melissa will lead to better storm forecasting that will help save lives, said CIMAS scientist Jun Zhang.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Hurricane Hunter plane\" class=\"\" height=\"584\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/hurricane-melissa-embed2-940x583.webp.webp\" style=\"border-width: 10px; margin: 10px;\" width=\"940\"\/><br \/>\nA NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane pierces the eye of Melissa. Image courtesy of NOAA<\/p>\n<p>Aboard Miss Piggy, the second NOAA-crewed P-3 that braved Melissa\u2019s fury ahead of its landfall in Jamaica, he launched 12 expendable drones over five flights into the storm\u2019s powerful winds, receiving and processing the remote aircrafts\u2019 data transmissions on wind speed, pressure, and humidity, then sending that information to forecasters at the NHC.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>With the goal of improving storm forecasting, Zhang plans to analyze the drone data and compare it to measurements taken by Doppler radar, dropsondes, and other instruments that collected readings on Melissa.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe\u2019re planning, for instance, to collaborate with [NOAA\u2019s] Environmental Modeling Center to study the impact of the drone data on hurricane track forecasts,\u201d he said. \u201cWe\u2019ll also use the data to quantify the strength of low-level turbulence in a hurricane, which could perhaps give us a better idea of how low the crewed P-3 can fly. Hurricane season may be almost over, but there\u2019s a lot of research ahead of us.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The turbulence tossed the P-3 Orion around like a toy. Harnessed in his seat aboard the four-engine turboprop,&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":32797,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[23137,12864,23138,944,123,125,124,15450,23136],"class_list":["post-32796","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-miami","tag-atmospheric-research","tag-hurricane-melissa","tag-hurricane-research","tag-hurricanes","tag-miami","tag-miami-headlines","tag-miami-news","tag-rapid-intensification","tag-tropical-cyclone"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32796","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=32796"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32796\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/32797"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=32796"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=32796"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=32796"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}