{"id":330924,"date":"2026-07-06T17:45:09","date_gmt":"2026-07-06T17:45:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/330924\/"},"modified":"2026-07-06T17:45:09","modified_gmt":"2026-07-06T17:45:09","slug":"5-things-i-think-about-the-st-pete-mayoral-election-as-voting-is-set-to-begin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/330924\/","title":{"rendered":"5 things I think about the St. Pete mayoral election as voting is set to begin"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"p1\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Now that the holiday weekend has subsided, people are begrudgingly headed back to real life, already missing the barbecues, poolside beverages, beach days and lively celebrations of the 250th anniversary of our nation\u2019s founding.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">That makes it a great time to offer another robust analysis of the state of St. Pete\u2019s mayoral election. Mail ballots will be hitting mailboxes soon, polling is offering an early glimpse into possible outcomes, and at least one campaign appears asleep at the wheel.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">But to start, let\u2019s take a look at something arguably small in the grand scheme of affordability issues plaguing people everywhere, but that\u2019s important to a lot of city residents, especially this year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Dud fireworks<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">I posted on the Shore Acres Neighborhood Civic Association Facebook page over the holiday weekend that the City of St. Pete\u2019s fireworks display was subpar compared to years past, and was particularly disappointing considering it was America\u2019s 250th birthday.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.moffitt.org\/taking-care-of-your-health\/taking-care-of-your-health-story-archive\/digital-pathology-in-cancer-care-for-rural-communities\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener external noreferrer nofollow\" data-wpel-link=\"external\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-794634 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Moffitt_FL-Politics-Digital-Innovation-Programatic-Ad_728-\u00d7-90.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"728\" height=\"90\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">While a few people chimed in to defend the display, I wasn\u2019t surprised to see numerous people agreeing with me. One person lamented the show was too short, arguing the Clearwater Thrashers \u201cdo better than St. Pete by a landslide.\u201d Another said they were still upset about it, adding that they felt \u201cbad for people who gathered hours early thinking it was going to be great.\u201d Someone called the display the \u201cDollar General package,\u201d while yet another said the show \u201cfelt oversold and underwhelming.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">And it wasn\u2019t just comments on my post. I searched \u201cSt. Pete fireworks\u201d on Facebook to see if there were other lamentations. One person created a time lapse of the entire show, condensing the display into just 10 seconds, and it really emphasized my point. I saw a comment on that same post saying the display was \u201cnothing compared to what Tampa did.\u201d Another said \u201cneighborhoods in Saint Pete did more than that.\u201d Another added: \u201cI wouldn\u2019t say they sucked, but was definitely expecting a larger spectacle for 250.\u201d Yet another said the \u201cfireworks sucked compared to other locations nearby.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Let\u2019s just think about that for a second. St. Pete is the largest and most populous city in Pinellas County, by far. Yet its fireworks display, according to numerous accounts, paled in comparison to smaller communities with smaller budgets.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Our St. Pete reporter, Jesse Mendoza, has filed a public records request with both the city of St. Pete and Tampa asking for each city\u2019s budget for their respective fireworks displays. As of publication, neither city had responded to the request. But if I were a betting man, and Kalshi will tell you I am, I\u2019d put my money on Tampa having invested much more in their display than St. Pete. (Speaking of Kalshi, <a href=\"https:\/\/kalshi.com\/markets\/kxstpetersburgmayor\/st-petersburg-mayoral-election\/kxstpetersburgmayor-26?op_order_side=no&amp;op_side=BUY&amp;op_order_type=contracts\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external noopener noreferrer nofollow\">the St. Pete Mayor\u2019s race is there<\/a>, and as of Monday morning put Crist at 81% odds of winning the August Primary.)<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">In this day and age, the firework issue is a minor beef. But it\u2019s indicative of a larger problem in Mayor Ken Welch\u2019s administration, where inadequate leadership affects the public amenities we have come to expect and enjoy from our city.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/ncf.edu\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener external noreferrer nofollow\" data-wpel-link=\"external\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-722105 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Sunburn_FloridaPoliticsWebsite_728x905186-scaled-e1740018793631.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"728\" height=\"90\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">And the perception matters to Welch, who is facing a challenging re-election battle, because \u2026<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Ballots are going out soon<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Overseas ballots were mailed last Thursday, and all other mail ballots will begin being sent next week. That means, essentially, the election is now. Not August. Now.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Having a disappointing fireworks show, which was highly anticipated considering the milestone nature of this year\u2019s celebrations, could serve as a determining factor for at least some voters who were on the fence about their voting choice.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Will it make a huge difference? Probably not. But the point is, Welch is running out of time to shore up support for a re-election campaign that has seen challenge after challenge, from campaign cash theft, shuffling political committees, stagnant donations and what appears to be limited campaigning (more on that in a second).<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">For the Fourth, Welch needed a big morale boost. He needed people to fall in love with their city all over again. And by proxy, he needed residents to fall in love with the city under HIS leadership. Instead, voters will begin receiving ballots next week with, dare I say, a sulfuric taste in their mouth.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Continuing cash struggles<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Campaign finance reports were due last week for political committees, and records now publicly available show Welch continuing to struggle with fundraising. For the period covering June 20-26, Welch\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/dos.elections.myflorida.com\/committees\/ComDetail.asp?account=89771\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external noopener noreferrer nofollow\">St. Petersburg Progress<\/a> political committee raised just $1,500. The period before that, from June 13-19, he didn\u2019t raise a dime. The $1,500 raised most recently came from just one donor, Morgan Macmillan.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Meanwhile, <a href=\"https:\/\/dos.elections.myflorida.com\/committees\/ComDetail.asp?account=89558\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external noopener noreferrer nofollow\">St. Pete Shines<\/a>, the political committee supporting Charlie Crist for Mayor, raised more than $25,000 in the most recent reporting period, nearly 17 times more than Welch\u2019s committee in the same period. What\u2019s worse for Welch, Crist\u2019s committee maintains more than $1.2 million on hand. Welch\u2019s committee has less than $235,000. Combined with the less than $25,000 left in his campaign account, Welch has less than $260,000 to make his case to voters.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">The question for Welch now becomes: Does he burn through what relatively little cash he has to attack Crist, or does he use it to defend his No. 2 position and force a November runoff? Polling suggests it would be unwise to go the first route, and more feasible to use resources instead attacking the No. 3 and No. 4 polling candidates \u2014 City Council Member Brandi Gabbard and former St. Pete Fire Chief Jim Large.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">While doing so could ensure Welch lives to fight another day, he\u2019d enter the next round tapped on cash and at a continued disadvantage. Simply put, there\u2019s no way to sugarcoat the financial situation in which Welch finds himself.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">And speaking of that poll \u2026<\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">A\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.stpetepolls.org\/\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external noopener noreferrer nofollow\">St. Pete Polls<\/a>\u00a0survey taken last week found Crist with nearly 28% support, more than 12 percentage points ahead of Welch and more than 17 points ahead of the rest of the mayoral race field.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">But what\u2019s worse for Welch, the latest poll shows his support <a href=\"https:\/\/floridapolitics.com\/archives\/805326-poll-charlie-crist-opens-double-digit-lead-in-st-pete-mayors-race-as-support-for-ken-welch-collapses\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">declining among Black voters<\/a>, a bad sign for the incumbent serving as the city\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tampabay.com\/news\/st-petersburg\/2021\/11\/02\/ken-welch-takes-early-lead-in-mayoral-race\/\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external noopener noreferrer nofollow\">first Black Mayor<\/a>. A March poll showed Welch leading among Black voters with 55% support, a huge lead over Crist at just 16% support. Fast forward to late June, Crist\u2019s support among Black voters increased by 14 percentage points, while Welch\u2019s slipped 13 percentage points, indicating he is bleeding support to Crist.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">How does this happen? Well, it might be a controversial take, but I\u2019ve heard from some that Welch simply is just not as entrenched in the community as other Black leaders. One prominent former elected official told me his community involvement has historically been lower than others in the community, and that his ties to the community aren\u2019t as solid as Welch would lead you to believe.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">There\u2019s also this: St. Pete\u2019s Black community skews largely liberal. Welch used to be a Republican.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">There\u2019s also something else:<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">He\u2019s just not campaigning hard enough<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">I took a look at Welch\u2019s social media channels for his campaign. His campaign website links to accounts on X, Facebook and Instagram. The Instagram link is broken. When searching for the actual page, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/teamwelchstpete\/\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external noopener noreferrer nofollow\">there is one<\/a>, but it has just 11 posts and 17 followers. To put that into perspective, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/charliecrist\/\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Crist\u2019s Instagram<\/a> account has 1,730 posts and 14,300 followers.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Welch\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/KeepKenWelch\/\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Facebook page<\/a> is more active, but still relatively quiet. He posted just once on the Fourth of July. The day before, he also posted just once. He didn\u2019t post anything at all on July 2. He posted on June 26, and then not again until June 30. In general, Welch appears to be posting once or twice per day, but sometimes with a day or several in between posts. And the content that is shared lacks pizazz.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/charliecristfl\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Crist\u2019s Facebook page<\/a>, by contrast, features several posts per day. Many are videos of the former Governor meeting with constituents or participating in community events. There are posts encouraging voters to request mail ballots. There\u2019s even a video of Crist attending Welch\u2019s America 250 flag raising ceremony, which must have been awkward for all involved.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">That\u2019s just a sampling of the contrast in social media presence. Add that to Welch\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/floridapolitics.com\/archives\/802075-after-filing-late-ken-welchs-latest-pc-fundraising-shows-him-still-far-behind-charlie-crist\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">lackluster fundraising activity<\/a>, his poor polling, ongoing city gripes and what appears to be a virtually nonexistent earned media strategy, and it becomes even more clear that Team Welch is a camp in trouble.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">And just one more thing \u2026\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">We\u2019re hearing Large\u2019s supporters believe he will win. And not just win the election, win it in August. I kid you not, this is what people are saying. Why the sarcasm about this prediction? Large\u2019s most recent polling numbers show him still stagnating in single-digit support.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">___<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Ed. note:\u00a0Michelle Todd Schorsch\u00a0is the Chair of St. Pete Shines, a political committee backing Crist for St. Petersburg Mayor. Todd Schorsch is married to Schorsch, the publisher of Florida Politics.<\/p>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/www.instagram.com\/embed.js\"><\/script><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Now that the holiday weekend has subsided, people are begrudgingly headed back to real life, already missing the&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":330925,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[3300,3347,48309,71439,2346,202,204,18455,203,37378,199,201,200,102069],"class_list":["post-330924","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-st-petersburg","tag-brandi-gabbard","tag-charlie-crist","tag-fireworks","tag-jim-large","tag-ken-welch","tag-st-pete","tag-st-pete-headlines","tag-st-pete-mayoral-election","tag-st-pete-news","tag-st-pete-shines","tag-st-petersburg","tag-st-petersburg-headlines","tag-st-petersburg-news","tag-st-petersburg-progress"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/330924","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=330924"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/330924\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/330925"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=330924"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=330924"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=330924"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}