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<\/p>\nIf it strengthens into a tropical storm, it would be named Bertha, the second named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. Here’s the outlook.<\/p>\n
Tropical Depression 2 continues to organize in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and is expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Bertha on Monday, according to Chief Meteorologist David Paul. While it’s too early to know whether the system will directly impact Southeast Texas, forecasters say it’s one to watch closely through the week.<\/p>\n
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Tropical Depression 2 expected to strengthen <\/p>\n
The National Hurricane Center upgraded the Gulf disturbance to Tropical Depression 2 on Sunday after its circulation strengthened more than forecast models had anticipated just days earlier.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Sustained winds: 30 mphWind gusts: 40 mphMovement: StationaryCentral pressure: 1,008 millibars <\/p>\n
Forecasters expect the system to become Tropical Storm Bertha sometime Monday as it remains over very warm Gulf waters, where sea surface temperatures range from 85 to 88 degrees.<\/p>\n
\nForecast track remains uncertain <\/p>\n
The National Hurricane Center’s forecast calls for the system to strengthen into a 60 mph tropical storm by Wednesday or Thursday before moving west across the Gulf. However, the forecast cone remains wide, highlighting considerable uncertainty in where the center could ultimately track by the end of the week.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Paul emphasized that residents should not focus solely on the center line of the forecast cone.<\/p>\n
“Just because the center of the cone is aiming at Matagorda Bay doesn’t mean that’s where it will end up,” he explained. The storm could ultimately track much farther north, farther south or weaken before reaching Texas.\u00a0<\/p>\n
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\nWind shear could limit strengthening <\/p>\n
One factor working against rapid intensification is moderate wind shear across the Gulf.<\/p>\n
While warm ocean temperatures provide fuel for tropical development, wind shear disrupts a storm’s vertical structure, making it harder for it to organize and strengthen. David Paul said that’s one reason current forecasts keep the system as a relatively weak tropical storm rather than a hurricane.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\nTwo possible scenarios for Southeast Texas <\/p>\n
Meteorologists are closely watching two primary scenarios:<\/p>\n
Scenario 1: The system moves into Louisiana or Mississippi before turning west. If that happens, interaction with land would likely weaken the storm significantly, resulting in little or no impact for Houston.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Scenario 2: The storm stays farther south over the warm Gulf waters. Remaining over water would allow it to hold together longer and potentially bring increased surf, rough seas, gusty winds and possibly rain to the Upper Texas Coast later this week.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Several major forecast models favor the first scenario, but at least one high-resolution model keeps the system over water longer, which is why confidence remains lower than normal.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\nHouston forecast <\/p>\n
Regardless of the storm’s eventual track, Houston is expected to stay hot and dry through at least Wednesday.<\/p>\n
Current rain chances include:<\/p>\n
Monday-Wednesday: DryThursday-Saturday: About a 20% chance of showers and storms, reflecting uncertainty surrounding the tropical system’s track.\u00a0 <\/p>\n
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\nWhat to watch <\/p>\n
Tropical Depression 2 is expected to become Tropical Storm Bertha on Monday.Forecast confidence remains low because the storm’s track could shift significantly over the next several days.If the system stays over water longer, coastal impacts could increase for Southeast Texas later this week.Houston residents, especially those along the coast or with boating interests, should monitor forecast updates at least once or twice a day as the forecast evolves.\u00a0 <\/p>\n