{"id":346601,"date":"2026-07-20T23:01:15","date_gmt":"2026-07-20T23:01:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/346601\/"},"modified":"2026-07-20T23:01:15","modified_gmt":"2026-07-20T23:01:15","slug":"poll-donalds-leads-florida-gop-governor-primary-with-a-third-of-voters-still-undecided","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/346601\/","title":{"rendered":"POLL: Donalds Leads Florida GOP Governor Primary with a Third of Voters Still Undecided"},"content":{"rendered":"

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (July\u00a020, 2026) \u2014\u00a0Cygnal<\/a>\u00a0released new survey findings from a statewide poll of 500\u00a0likely 2026\u00a0Florida Republican primary voters\u00a0(conducted July 12\u201313). The\u00a0survey finds<\/a>\u00a0an early frontrunner, but also a fluid race shaped by name recognition, regional variation, and a\u00a0sizable undecided\u00a0bloc that\u00a0remains\u00a0open to movement.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

In the Republican primary ballot test,\u00a0Byron Donalds\u00a0leads with 43 percent, followed by\u00a0James Fishback\u00a0at 12 percent,\u00a0Jay Collins\u00a0at 11 percent, and\u00a0Paul Renner\u00a0at 2 percent, while 31 percent\u00a0remain\u00a0undecided.\u00a0Our\u00a0analysis\u00a0notes\u00a0the current landscape reflects a divided and\u00a0largely unfamiliar\u00a0field, with challengers plus undecideds accounting for 57 percent of the electorate.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cFlorida Republicans know some of these names much better than others, and that is a major part of what is driving the early ballot,\u201d said\u00a0Mitch Brown<\/a>, Partner and Pollster at\u00a0Cygnal. \u201cThis is an early race with a clear leader, but also a\u00a0large undecided\u00a0share\u00a0with some\u00a0meaningful room for movement\u00a0from the lesser-known names\u00a0as voters learn more about the rest of the field.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

The survey shows candidate image closely tracks ballot standing.\u00a0Donalds\u00a0posts 75\u00a0percent\u00a0name ID, compared with 35 percent for\u00a0Collins, 31 percent for\u00a0Fishback, and 17 percent for\u00a0Renner, while large shares of voters still say they have no opinion of or have never heard of the challengers.\u00a0The poll also finds a defined but unsettled audience still available in the race. Undecided voters skew female,\u00a0somewhat more\u00a0moderate than the broader Republican primary electorate, and are especially concentrated in North Florida and the Tampa media market. Their top concerns are pocketbook issues, led by inflation, property taxes, and property insurance.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

A generational split is already visible in the field.\u00a0Donalds\u00a0performs best with older voters, while\u00a0Fishback\u2019s\u00a0support is more concentrated among younger voters, especially younger men.\u00a0Our data\u00a0also\u00a0identifies\u00a0three major voter groupings in the electorate: Young Populists, Disengaged Moderates, and Establishment Loyalists.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat stands out here is that familiarity is a major advantage right now, but the unsettled voters are definable, reachable, and focused on practical concerns that matter in everyday life,\u201d\u00a0Brown\u00a0said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Methodology:\u00a0Cygnal\u00a0surveyed 500\u00a0likely 2026\u00a0Florida Republican primary voters statewide July 12\u201313, 2026. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.38 percentage points.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

###\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Cygnal\u00a0is an award-winning international public opinion and predictive analytics firm that has revolutionized the polling industry with multi-mode polling, message mapping, and emotional analytics. Recognized as the\u00a0#1 private pollster<\/a>\u00a0by the Silver Bulletin and The New York Times, the firm boasts an impressive 95 percent accuracy rating in the 2024 election cycle. With experience in all 50 U.S. states and over 20 countries,\u00a0Cygnal\u00a0has strategically guided over 3,100 campaigns and conducted more than 4,800 polls. Its client roster includes high-profile figures such as Governors Greg Abbott and Brian Kemp, along with\u00a0numerous\u00a0other Members of Congress, state legislators, caucuses, corporations, and trade associations, solidifying\u00a0Cygnal\u00a0as a clear leader in political polling and analytics.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (July\u00a020, 2026) \u2014\u00a0Cygnal\u00a0released new survey findings from a statewide poll of 500\u00a0likely 2026\u00a0Florida Republican primary voters\u00a0(conducted…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":346602,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[28,30,29],"class_list":["post-346601","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-florida","tag-florida","tag-florida-headlines","tag-florida-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/346601","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=346601"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/346601\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/346602"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=346601"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=346601"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=346601"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}