AL East foes are set to clash this evening at Rogers Centre. It\u2019s put up or shut up time for the Blue Jays (46-54), in desperate need of some wins. Toronto is still alive in the playoff race, but another defeat tonight could push the front office to punt on this season. As for the Rays (57-42), they\u2019ll be looking to build off of Monday\u2019s series-opening victory. Which of these two rivals will come out on top this evening?<\/p>\n
Both the Rays and Blue Jays have -110 odds on the moneyline, with the over\/under set at 7.5 runs<\/a>. Below, I\u2019ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Tuesday\u2019s showdown between Tampa Bay and Toronto on DraftKings Sportsbook<\/a>.<\/p>\n Rays vs. Blue Jays pick, best bet today<\/p>\n Rays ML (-110)<\/a>: The Rays aren\u2019t a perfect team, but they are the more well-rounded club in this matchup. I trust Rasmussen against almost anyone, especially the sport\u2019s lowest-scoring lineup. On the other side, Tampa Bay could do some damage against Gausman\u2019s splitter-heavy approach.<\/p>\n Rays vs. Blue Jays prediction, preview<\/p>\n If the Rays are going to make a World Series appearance, it\u2019ll likely be due to the strength of their pitching. Tonight\u2019s starter, Drew Rasmussen, might be the sport\u2019s most underrated hurler. Through 99.1 innings (18 starts), the righty has notched a 3.26 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 98 strikeouts (8.9 K\/9). To boot, he\u2019s been better on the road (3.02 ERA) than at home (3.51 ERA). Rasmussen sits within the top 75th percentile among qualified starters in chase rate (33.0%), hard-hit rate (33.8%) and ground ball rate (47.4%). However, it\u2019s his 99th-percentile walk rate (4.3%) that really stands out.<\/p>\n A pitcher with pinpoint accuracy such as Rasmussen has the potential to dominate in this spot. The Blue Jays are averaging an American League-worst 2.75 walks per game this season. However, that one statistic doesn\u2019t do this group\u2019s offensive ineptitude justice. Toronto is 30th in runs scored (398), 25th in home runs (101) and 28th in OPS (.684). Stars such as Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (96 wRC+), George Springer (95 wRC+) and Alejandro Kirk (64 wRC+) have all disappointed for the reigning American League champs. That\u2019s especially true in the power department; Springer and Kazuma Okamoto are the only players on this roster with double-digit home runs. In comparison, Rasmussen has posted a minuscule 0.9 HR\/9 rate during his seven-year career.<\/p>\n If there\u2019s a glimmer of hope for the Blue Jays, it\u2019s the presence of Kevin Gausman. In what could be one of his final starts in Toronto, the veteran will hope to give his floundering squad a boost tonight. Through 112.1 innings pitched, he\u2019s recorded a 4.33 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 116 strikeouts (9.3 K\/9). Those aren\u2019t eye-popping numbers, but advanced metrics suggest that Gausman is due for better days in the future. He wields a respectable 3.88 xERA and .240 xBA. Even more impressive, the 35-year-old is within the top 70th percentile in chase rate (34.4%), whiff rate (27.9%) and walk rate (6.8%).<\/p>\n Much like their opponents tonight, the Rays aren\u2019t the most powerful lineup. However, they make up for it with elite bat to ball skills. Tampa Bay is 16th in runs scored (442), third in batting average (.258) and fifth in on-base percentage (.332). Leading the charge for the Rays is the trio of Junior Caminero (154 wRC+), Yandy Diaz (104 wRC+) and Jonathan Aranda (135 wRC+). They are the only three batters on the team with 200+ plate appearances and a wRC+ above 100. Gausman\u2019s most-used off-speed pitch is the splitter (39%). Against that offering, Tampa Bay is slashing .280\/.330\/.393 at the plate this season.<\/p>\n