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<\/a><\/p>\nAnd that\u2019s where the second shocker comes in. Based on polling among those who have already voted, Gabbard would be eliminated too.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s because Crist is at more than 50% support among those who have already voted. A runoff is only held in the General Election if no candidate exceeds 50% of the vote. Right now, according to the poll, Crist\u2019s 51% support among those who have already cast their ballot would allow him to win the election outright on Aug. 18.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s worth noting that these numbers are highly preliminary; only 19% of respondents said they had already cast a ballot, with 81% saying they plan to.<\/p>\n
But even among those who plan to vote, but haven\u2019t yet, Crist still has an overwhelming lead that could position him for an outright victory in less than three weeks. Of those planning to vote, 31% say they will cast their ballot for Crist, with just 21% saying they plan to vote for Welch and 15% saying they will vote for Gabbard. Under those numbers, there\u2019s actually room for Crist to improve his position as voting continues.<\/p>\n
What\u2019s more, the poll was taken Monday and Tuesday, after a barrage of negative mailers attacking Crist from the Large and Welch campaigns filled St. Pete voters\u2019 mailboxes. And it came before Tampa Bay Times Viewpoints Editor Graham Brink recommended Crist in the race<\/a>, a nod that could further move the needle in Crist\u2019s direction.<\/p>\n And with Welch and Gabbard polling so closely, it\u2019s also worth noting the poll doesn\u2019t reflect that Tampa Bay Times CEO Conan Gallaty recommended Gabbard, a move that left Welch with no nod from the Tampa Bay Times and several damning reminders<\/a> of his administration\u2019s track record.<\/p>\n The poll also has one loosely measurable metric that lends it credibility. While the race is nonpartisan and candidates\u2019 political affiliations won\u2019t appear on the ballot, it\u2019s little secret that Large is a Republican. Republican voters are known to be less likely to vote-by-mail and more likely than other voters to vote later, including on Election Day. It\u2019s a trend that has only increased under President Donald Trump because he repeatedly questions the security of vote-by-mail.<\/p>\n That trend is on display in the St. Pete Polls survey, with less than 6% of those who have already voted saying they cast their ballot for Large. That\u2019s far fewer than said they support him, signaling Large voters have yet to cast a ballot.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/FHA_Innovation_FP-Ads-copy728x90-Community.png\")
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