But for the first time, a poll shows Gabbard has a path to victory.<\/p>\n
The poll also shows the damage done to Welch runs all the way down to his foundation. For the second poll in a row<\/a>, more than 80% of the city prefers someone else as Mayor. That is a damning indictment of an incumbent.<\/p>\n Given this framework, I can now see the logic of Welch\u2019s strategy to incessantly attack Crist<\/a> in the mailbox, and of his decision to go straight to camera and attack not Crist, not Gabbard, but me<\/a>.<\/p>\n Welch\u2019s strategy to date has been to keep Crist from achieving escape velocity and breaking through the 50% threshold that would end this election in August. I assume Welch figures a miracle or two (or three) will occur in the General Election if he finishes second. I assume he thinks that just making it to the General Election keeps him in play.<\/p>\n And, technically, it does. But if he comes out of the Primary a dead man walking, he will lose. It\u2019s just a matter of when. As previously reported, Welch\u2019s fundraising has literally dried up<\/a>; he raised no money to his political committee during the latest reporting period.<\/p>\n But if there\u2019s little logic left in attacking Crist, there is some soundness to Welch making an issue of me, especially in the vehicle he chose, a direct-to-Facebook video. It\u2019s an attempt to portray Welch as the victim and to rally his base. I think his math says that if he can rally that base, it will be enough to carry him into the General Election. He\u2019s probably not wrong.<\/p>\n Still, with just over two weeks until the election and early voting starting Aug. 8, Welch has to recalibrate. Forget about trying to stop Crist; focus on finishing ahead of Gabbard.<\/p>\n The most interesting aspect of this survey, and of previous St. Pete Polls surveys that use this tool, is the questioning of those who say they\u2019ve already voted. I have found that, historically, this is the most accurate slice of the polling.<\/p>\n People might say they\u2019re going to vote and then not show up. They might not want to tell you who they plan to support because they\u2019re still undecided. But they are not going to lie about something they\u2019ve already done.<\/p>\n That\u2019s why the reporting about this poll<\/a> is, quote, shocking. Crist\u2019s 51% support among those who have already voted is eye-popping \u2014 although it should come with a few caveats, and I\u2019ll get to those.<\/p>\n The other shocker is that Welch is not even in second place with this cohort; Gabbard leads him there, roughly 15% to 12%.<\/p>\n But let\u2019s go beyond the shock and break down the poll, giving each candidate one nugget to chew on. Here are six things I think I think about the latest poll of the St. Pete mayoral race.<\/p>\n \u2014 There\u2019s not much for Kevin Batdorf to hang his hat on inside this poll, where he sits at 3%. That\u2019s to be expected, but it\u2019s probably disappointing for him.<\/p>\n Batdorf is an affable candidate who speaks intelligently about the issues, as he did last week when he called Welch\u2019s pricing of the Historic Gas Plant District a \u201cdereliction of duty<\/a>.\u201d Batdorf pointed to two May appraisals valuing the Tropicana Field property at $380 million to $390 million against The Burg Bid\u2019s $275 million cash price and calling for independent consultants to determine the site\u2019s highest and best use.<\/p>\n But Batdorf is just not moving in the polls, and that has to be a cautionary tale for everyone who wants to run for office without ever having worked in politics. Batdorf calls himself the \u201cunpolitician,\u201d and that\u2019s cute. But politics requires money, of course, and it also requires a broad network of supporters and volunteers. You can\u2019t run for Mayor of St. Petersburg and expect to get beyond the margin of error with a campaign built on straight-to-camera social media videos.<\/p>\n Batdorf has a future, and a role, in this city. His experience with the response to the hurricanes gives him expert-level positioning, and whoever is the next Mayor should find at least an advisory role for him in their administration.<\/p>\n \u2014 No one, other than Welch himself, is doing more damage to Welch than Maria Scruggs. At 4% of the already-voted cohort, Scruggs is running a full third as strong as the incumbent. And she\u2019s pulling about 10% of the Black vote, which is what\u2019s keeping Welch from getting more than 50% of the Black vote.<\/p>\n I don\u2019t see how Welch gets to the second round with less than 70% of the Black vote. Yes, there\u2019s a big pool of undecided Black voters, but my instincts tell me those votes are simply going to melt away rather than show up. I don\u2019t know what\u2019s out there to motivate Black voters to head to the polls \u2014 they\u2019re not turning out en masse for David Jolly \u2014 and Welch barely has the money to keep the lights on, much less fund a full get-out-the-vote operation.<\/p>\n We\u2019ll see in the Monday or Tuesday numbers after next Sunday, when Souls to the Polls is supposed to occur. But right now, Scruggs is overperforming.<\/p>\n \u2014 I actually have a lot of thoughts about Jim Large\u2018s numbers. It was brought to my attention by a prominent local Republican that Large\u2019s base \u2014 Republican voters \u2014 is the group least likely to respond to this kind of poll. I kind of believe that. So Large is probably underperforming in this survey and will do better on Election Day.<\/p>\n In fact, the internals back this up. Large is at just 6% among those who have already voted but ticks up to 9% among those who plan to vote. That\u2019s exactly the pattern you\u2019d expect now that Republicans vote near or on Election Day rather than by mail, a trend that has only increased under President Donald Trump, who repeatedly questions the security of vote-by-mail.<\/p>\n So I still think Large gets into the low teens. If there\u2019s any get-out-the-vote operation in this Primary, it will be because of Byron Donalds and the other Republican gubernatorial candidates.<\/p>\n But the idea that Large finishes second, which the Chris Latvalas of the world will tell you is going to happen? I just don\u2019t think it\u2019s there. Not unless he goes into his firefighter pension and writes his campaign a personal check for $100,000.<\/p>\n \u2014 So who do I go to next, Welch or Gabbard? If you haven\u2019t noticed, I\u2019m ranking these candidates in order of where I think they\u2019ll finish, and as of today (and I reserve the right to revise based on polling and additional developments), I think Gabbard comes up just short.<\/p>\n And it\u2019s not because of any number in this poll. It\u2019s because of the numbers on the campaign finance reports. She raised zero dollars to her political committee during the latest reporting period, and $1,000 to her campaign account.<\/p>\n Her campaign is supposed to be built on small-dollar donations, but those are likely too small to make it to November.<\/p>\n Supporters can spar back and forth online, as I have with Gabbard\u2019s and Welch\u2019s people this past week, as much as they want. But the voters of west St. Petersburg and the storm-damaged neighborhoods in the northeast part of town aren\u2019t paying attention to any of that, and they probably haven\u2019t heard from Gabbard with paid media at all. If that continues, I just don\u2019t see how she gets past Welch.<\/p>\n Now, it should be reported that the Realtors \u2014 whether Florida Realtors or the local Realtor organizations \u2014 have mailed at least three times for Gabbard. I think the Realtors are trying to play under the radar and not antagonize Welch or Crist, but their efforts in the mailbox are no longer subtle.<\/p>\n Is it enough to carry Gabbard? I don\u2019t know. Another $100,000 in mail might be enough to get her past Welch, while also pissing off Crist\u2019s team. It will be interesting to see what Andy Scaglione and the Realtors decide to do.<\/p>\n \u2014 As of this morning, I still think Welch gets there. Especially when 21% of those who plan to vote are still with him. He has a slightly higher ceiling than Gabbard, he is better funded, and he is rallying his base.<\/p>\n There are also a few other variables I won\u2019t go into here, because I don\u2019t want to encourage bad actors to get involved. But Welch could be \u201csaved\u201d if certain people wanted. I\u2019ll leave it at that.<\/p>\n The major decision Welch faces is whether to take a shot or two at Gabbard, or continue going after Crist. I don\u2019t know that he has the wherewithal to go after Gabbard. Has he done an oppo file? Does he know where he can draw a distinction between himself and a Council member who has voted in lockstep with his administration? I don\u2019t know that it gets there.<\/p>\n But continuing to scrap with Crist is just pushing people to Gabbard, rather than peeling them off Crist and sending them to Welch.<\/p>\n The other damaging number for Welch has to be the head-to-head against Crist, who leads that hypothetical matchup 45% to 30%. Even if Welch holds off Gabbard, he faces an epic loss in the General Election, probably worse than how badly Bill Foster lost to Rick Kriseman. Crist could win that election in the mailbox. But that\u2019s neither here nor there; a lot can change in September and October. Welch just has to focus on the next two weeks.<\/p>\n \u2014 As for Crist, I\u2019ve basically buried the lede of this column. The chatter around town, and close to Crist, is whether he should \u201cgo for it\u201d and try to win this election outright in August.<\/p>\n Rick Baker tried this in 2017 and came up narrowly short<\/a>. And in coming up short, a deflation occurred that shifted the momentum of that race to Kriseman, who went on to narrowly win re-election<\/a>. I don\u2019t think that\u2019s the case here. Baker started with a sizable lead that Kriseman steadily chipped into. Crist started as the underdog to an incumbent, steadily overcame Welch in the polls, and has now blown past him.<\/p>\n Folks see the 51%-of-already-voted statistic and believe Crist can win outright in two weeks. Let me give you the math I see and why, right now, that\u2019s not what would happen.<\/p>\n Crist is getting 51% of the roughly 20% who say they\u2019ve already voted. That gives him about 10% of the overall electorate. He\u2019s getting 31% of the remaining 80% who say they plan to vote. That gives him another 24%. What\u2019s left are the undecideds, about 18% of those who plan to vote.<\/p>\n I think Crist picks up a sizable chunk of them, as he has in previous polls; one survey had him breaking 2 or 3 of every 5 undecided voters. But I don\u2019t know that holds with this particular undecided cohort. I think some of them are Large voters who don\u2019t want to say who they\u2019re supporting. And I think some are Black voters who have not yet come home to Welch \u2014 but who, if they vote, probably will.<\/p>\n So: 10 plus 24 plus, let\u2019s say, 8 gets you to 42% of the election. Obviously not enough to win outright.<\/p>\n But it would be a historic showing for someone who has never run for Mayor before, especially in a six-way field, and it would set Crist up for a get-on-the-bandwagon-now victory lap in September and October. The race would not be over, though.<\/p>\n Here\u2019s how Crist could get there, and we\u2019ll only know after another week of voting by mail. If Crist continues at this pace, picking up 50% of the already-voted cohort, and that cohort suddenly becomes 30% or 40% of the electorate, well, that\u2019s a lot of banked votes.<\/p>\n The story of Florida\u2019s Primaries will be turnout \u2014 and no, I\u2019m not trying to be Susan MacManus, telling you the team with the most points wins. The story is how depressed turnout will be. There is just no top-of-the-ballot spending going on, and the smart folks I talk to are revising their turnout models downward. At one point, the thinking was that 51,000 voters would take part in the St. Petersburg mayoral race. As of the most recent numbers, turnout across Pinellas County, which includes more than just St. Pete, sat at just over 6%<\/a>.<\/p>\n The people who say they plan to vote, and the undecideds? They just might melt away. And in a shrinking electorate, banked votes like Crist\u2019s \u2014 and, to a lesser extent, Gabbard\u2019s \u2014 become much more valuable.<\/p>\n Crist also has a significant amount of money left. I\u2019m not privy to what\u2019s earmarked or budgeted, but going just by the campaign finance reports, there\u2019s well north of $800,000<\/a>\u00a0left in his committee\u2019s account. And the pace of his fundraising, while not what it was when he was picking low-hanging fruit at the start, is still impressive. Raising $50,000 or $60,000 a week for a St. Petersburg mayoral race is running through the tape.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/2025_USNWR_Digital_Ad_728x90.jpg\")
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