After reeling off nine straight wins, the Rays (74-47) finally fell short last night. It was the Orioles (59-63) that pulled away late en route to a narrow 6-5 victory. Baltimore, despite its sub-.500 record, is just one game out of the American League\u2019s final wild card spot. On the other side, Tampa Bay is looking to clinch the Junior Circuit\u2019s best record with less than two months before the playoffs. Which of these divisional rivals will come out on top tonight?<\/p>\n
The Rays are favorites (-141)<\/a> over the Orioles; the over\/under is set at 7.5 runs<\/a>. Below, I\u2019ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Saturday\u2019s showdown between Baltimore and Tampa Bay on DraftKings Sportsbook<\/a>.<\/p>\n Orioles vs. Rays pick, best bet today<\/p>\n Orioles ML (+131)<\/a>: This is a value play, leaning towards the side with the superior starting pitcher on the mound in Bradish. At +131 odds, the Orioles are worth a wager tonight against a middling arm in Seymour.<\/p>\n Orioles vs. Rays prediction, preview<\/p>\n It\u2019ll be Kyle Bradish making his 24th start of the season for Baltimore. During 127.0 innings of work, he\u2019s delivered a 3.69 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 121 strikeouts (8.6 K\/9). What prevents the fifth-year pro from reaching ace status is mediocre command; his career-high 3.8 BB\/9 ratio signals erratic control. What Bradish does quite well is limiting the long ball (0.9 HR\/9). The right-hander has done well in this spot, allowing three earned runs over his previous three meetings with Tampa Bay (1.56 ERA). To boot, Baltimore\u2019s top arm has allowed one earned run or less in three of his last five outings.<\/p>\n Navigating Tampa Bay\u2019s lineup won\u2019t be easy. This group is 12th in runs scored (554), first in batting average (.260) and sixth in OPS (.738). As previously mentioned, the AL East leaders come into Saturday having won nine of their last ten contests. During that stretch, they paced all of baseball with 70 runs scored. However, it\u2019s important not to read too much into those results. After all, trips to Colorado and Sacramento will inflate the statistics of almost any club. The trio of Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz and Jonathan Aranda has wreaked havoc on opposing pitchers all season. Ditto for new acquisition Liam Hicks, sporting a 1.080 OPS over his first nine games with the Rays. Still, this could be a difficult matchup for the home team. Bradish sits within the 78th percentile among qualified starters with a 48.7% ground ball rate. At the plate, Tampa Bay hitters own the fourth-highest ground ball rate (45.2%).<\/p>\n As for the Rays, Ian Seymour will get the nod this evening. It\u2019s been a decent, albeit unspectacular, 2026 for the southpaw. He enters today\u2019s contest with a 4.08 ERA and 1.13 WHIP through 90.1 innings.\u00a0He\u2019s one of Tampa Bay\u2019s better swing and miss guys, sitting inside the 77th percentile or better in chase rate, whiff rate and strikeout rate. However, Seymour is below the 15th percentile in barrel and ground ball rate. Unsurprisingly, that\u2019s led to quite a few baseballs leaving the park (1.3 HR\/9).<\/p>\n If there\u2019s one thing the Orioles know how to do, it\u2019s mash. This squad is sixth in barrel rate (8.7%) and first in hard-hit rate (42.8%). In addition, they have the eighth-best OPS on the road against left-handed pitching (.733). Another underrated component of this lineup is its ability to work a count. Baltimore is averaging an American League-best 3.86 walks per game. The O\u2019s have scored at least five runs in each of their last five games. Keeping that in mind, it looks like this offense is starting to heat up.<\/p>\n