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<\/a><\/p>\nThere\u2019s also City Council Member Brandi Gabbard, once a strong Welch ally, now a challenge for Welch to overcome.<\/p>\n
Former St. Pete Fire Chief Jim Large is also running. He\u2019s retired now, but for much of Welch\u2019s first term Large worked closely with Welch as a member of his Cabinet.<\/p>\n
Kevin Batdorf, a local businessman who was President of the Shore Acres Neighborhood Civic Association when Hurricanes Helene and Milton struck two years ago, is challenging Welch now largely because of what critics perceive as an inadequate response by the Welch administration after the storms.<\/p>\n
Maria Scruggs, a Central Florida jail administrator and perennial candidate, has gained more traction in this race than she has in the past, and her message has largely been in opposition to the current administration.<\/p>\n
If the players in the race highlight the trouble Welch faces, endorsements punctuate it. Welch has been bleeding support this election cycle, with many who backed him in 2021 swapping allegiance to another candidate or sitting out of the race entirely.<\/p>\n
Such is the case for Sen. Darryl Rouson, long a Welch ally who first decided to endorse both Crist and Welch<\/a>\u00a0before announcing that he would be casting his ballot for Crist<\/a>. There\u2019s also John Muhammad, a former City Council member who previously supported Welch, but now has decided not to endorse anyone in the race<\/a>.<\/p>\n The Tampa Bay Times, which supported Welch in his first election<\/a>, bucked the incumbent not once, but twice this year. Times Publishing Co. Chair and CEO\u00a0Conan Gallaty<\/a>\u00a0recommended\u00a0Gabbard, while Tampa Bay Times Viewpoints Editor\u00a0Graham Brink<\/a>\u00a0chose to support Crist. They disagreed over who should replace Welch, but united around the conclusion that the city needs a change<\/a>.<\/p>\n Polling reflects the monumental challenge ahead for Welch. The most recent polling, in late July, found Crist leading Welch by 15 percentage points<\/a>. Welch\u2019s 19% support in the poll put him just 4 percentage points ahead of Gabbard, a margin that puts Welch at risk of finishing third in the Primary, which would eliminate him from the race and end his hopes for a second term.<\/p>\n Polls are not foolproof indicators of how races will ultimately turn out, but they are snapshots in time that give an idea of where voter sentiment lies. But other aspects of the race lend poll findings validity, with other measurable metrics suggesting trouble for an embattled incumbent.<\/p>\n Campaign finance<\/p>\n Put simply, Welch has struggled to raise the kind of cash needed to win a competitive mayoral race in a mid-sized city. What\u2019s more, his campaign has been plagued with a series of unforced errors that could give voters the impression that Welch isn\u2019t ready to continue playing in the big leagues.<\/p>\n Overall, Crist has raised more than $1.8 million for the race between his campaign account and affiliated political committee. Welch has raised less than a half million. Gabbard is even further back, with about $77,000. Large raised a little more than $150,000, Scruggs brought in nearly $29,000 and Batdorf just $4,500.<\/p>\n As the incumbent, Welch should be able to tap into deep pockets of cash, tapping those with business before the city \u2014 or who might someday have business before the city \u2014 for big checks. Not only has that not happened to the degree it has in the past, Welch\u2019s finance operation has faced myriad challenges.<\/p>\n Welch is now on his third political committee<\/a> since first running for Mayor in 2021. His first, Pelican PAC, was revoked by the state for consistently failing to file certain required documents. His second, The Pelican Political Action Committee, was abandoned after it became public that a former Treasurer, Yolanda Brown, had allegedly stolen $207,000<\/a> from it by making a series of unauthorized expenditures to a business she controls.<\/p>\n The current committee, St. Petersburg Progress PAC<\/a>, has faced its own challenges. In June, the committee missed a campaign finance reporting deadline<\/a>. The Welch campaign said at the time the late report was \u201cdue to a family medical emergency.\u201d<\/p>\n Spending shows why campaign cash is important<\/p>\n As Welch\u2019s campaign has struggled, he hasn\u2019t had the cash to combat the onslaught of criticism. Recent spending punctuates how difficult it is to move the electoral needle when you\u2019re being massively outspent.<\/p>\n From July 25-31, Crist\u2019s political committee dropped more than $249,000, with its largest expenditure, $140,000, paying for advertising. Another $105,000 paid for mailers. No other candidate in the race spent that significantly on voter outreach.<\/p>\n Welch\u2019s political committee, St. Petersburg Progress<\/a>, spent nearly $68,000 in the most recent period, with $50,000 of that going toward mailers. That means Welch spent half as much on mailers as Crist, and didn\u2019t post any expenditures related to other media buys on television, streaming or radio.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, the Crist campaign, largely through its affiliated political committee, has been blanketing the airwaves with television ads. The most recent, entitled \u201cHope,\u201d began running Friday on broadcast, streaming and digital platforms, and will continue running through Election Day.<\/p>\n As of Friday morning, voter turnout<\/a> throughout Pinellas County sat at just 15%, meaning the latest ad will reach plenty of voters who have not yet cast a ballot. The ad shares a positive message about Crist\u2019s St. Pete roots, his love for the city and his vow to make the city more prosperous for all. While the ad is a positive message, it subtly contrasts Crist with Welch.<\/p>\n Crist closes the ad with a common refrain, saying \u201cSt. Pete\u2019s been on a pause,\u201d adding a promise to \u201cshow up.\u201d The \u201cshow up\u201d dig is a reference to Tampa Bay Times reporting<\/a> in Welch\u2019s first year in office finding he had swiped his keycard into City Hall just 34% of workdays.<\/p>\n A previous ad from Crist\u2019s committee, entitled \u201cMess,\u201d criticized the Welch administration over its response to the 2024 hurricanes. It described City Hall as \u201cmissing in action<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n Ads have generally followed the \u201cshowing up\u201d and \u201cmissing in action\u201d themes. One, created using artificial intelligence, mocked Welch for the Times reporting on his attendance at City Hall<\/a>, including Welch\u2019s departure from the city\u2019s Emergency Operations Center during Hurricane Ian in 2022.<\/p>\n While candidates not named Crist, and without seven figures in resources, haven\u2019t been able to blast their messaging as frequently, they are still getting the word out. A recent round of direct mail<\/a> leading up to the Primary showed Large attacking Crist and an outside spending group attacking Gabbard.<\/p>\n Crist also had a mailer hitting voters\u2019 homes touting his record as an elected official, while also subtly dinging Welch with a line noting that \u201cSt. Pete deserves better.\u201d<\/p>\n The General Election dilemma<\/p>\n With six candidates on the ballot, it is unlikely any will reach the 50% threshold needed to win the race outright on Tuesday. Polling has consistently shown Crist leading, but far from winner-take-all in August territory.<\/p>\n But he\u2019ll have a major advantage in a General Election in November should he advance, and that advantage will apply no matter who he faces.<\/p>\n With Batdorf and Scruggs polling in single-digits, it\u2019s unlikely either could find the inside lane to pull off an upset. But even among the remaining candidates, neither Welch, Gabbard nor Large will have much cash on hand after the Primary.<\/p>\n As of July 31, Crist had more than $700,000 still on hand between his two funding sources. Welch, by comparison, had less than $81,000; Gabbard less than $28,000 and Large just under $58,000.<\/p>\n While it\u2019s likely that anti-Crist forces may re-up donations to whoever makes the General Election, it\u2019s unlikely that even a big surge in financial support could bridge the gap, giving Crist a big cash advantage after Tuesday.<\/p>\n What\u2019s next?<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/051122026-FCG-Ads2_728x90_Opp2-scaled-e1778784244341.jpg\")
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