Miami-Dade County Commissioner Oliver Gilbert is in second place with 22% support, with lawyer Kendrick Meek Jr. just slightly behind him at 20.5%, a gap well inside the poll\u2019s margin of error.<\/p>\n
Another 18.2% of likely Democratic Primary voters remain undecided or back someone else.<\/p>\n
The results extend a trend line running through three consecutive St. Pete Polls surveys of the race. The firm\u2019s July survey<\/a> had Gilbert on top with 27% to Jones\u2019 24%, Meek shy of 10% and more than a third of voters unsure. Ten days ago<\/a>, Jones led 33.1% to Gilbert\u2019s 23.4%, with Meek at 17.5%.<\/p>\n Since then, Jones has added roughly 6 points and Meek 3, while Gilbert\u2019s support sank.<\/p>\n Jones is crushing it with early voters. Among the 46.3% of respondents who said they\u2019ve already cast a ballot, Jones commands 47.7% to Gilbert\u2019s 25.8% and Meek\u2019s 21.9%, with fewer than 5% undecided.<\/p>\n The picture is murkier among voters who haven\u2019t cast ballots. With them, Jones leads with 32.7%, followed by Meek at 19.3%, Gilbert at 18% and a full 30% undecided \u2014 ample room for late movement, but likely not enough to overtake Jones\u2019 banked advantage.<\/p>\n St. Pete Polls surveyed 278 likely Democratic Primary voters Aug. 15-16 by phone and text, weighing the results by race, age and gender to match Democrats\u2019 demographic composition in CD 24.<\/p>\n The poll carried a 5.9-percentage-point margin of error at a 95% confidence level.<\/p>\n Unweighted crosstabs in the poll show Jones leading across nearly every demographic slice. He holds 38.1% support among Black voters, who made up about 7 in 10 respondents, compared to 23.7% for Gilbert and 21.6% for Meek.<\/p>\n He also leads among White voters at 52.6% and Hispanic voters at 37%, with Gilbert running second among Hispanics at 29.6%.<\/p>\n Jones\u2019 widest gender split favors men, who back him 44% to Gilbert\u2019s 18% and Meek\u2019s 16%. Among women, his edge narrows to 36.4%, with Gilbert at 23.9% and Meek at 23.3%.<\/p>\n Jones also leads every age bracket, peaking at 50.8% among voters aged 30 to 49. Gilbert performs best with the oldest voters, taking 26.5% among those 70 and up \u2014 a group that accounted for more than a third of the sample.<\/p>\n Seven Democrats are competing to succeed retiring U.S. Rep. Frederica Wilson, who has held the seat since 2011 and has thrown her support<\/a> behind Gilbert.<\/p>\n Former U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi endorsed Meek.<\/p>\n Jones, meanwhile, has racked up backing from Black Men Vote PAC<\/a> and U.S. Rep. Robert Garcia<\/a>\u00a0of California, among others.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Ads-Florida-Politics-Abbott_728x90.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/jay-trumbull-florida-politics-banner-ads-728x90-b-scaled-e1740688220698.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\n