\nAug. 12, 2022 \u2014 Welch kills the Moffitt Cancer Center deal: Arguing the deal did not provide enough public benefit<\/a> to justify the proposed public subsidy \u2014 largely over what he viewed as a lack of affordable housing \u2014 Welch spiked it to focus on bringing more affordable housing to the city. Now the decision, recast by opponents as depriving St. Pete of cancer care, is being used as a cudgel against him.
\nSept. 2, 2022 \u2014 Deputy Mayor Stephanie Owens resigns: Accused of bullying<\/a> by another senior staffer, Owens resigned<\/a> and Welch ultimately eliminated the position. But the accusations led to someone leaking a letter from Welch\u2019s first mayoral bid levying similar complaints against Owens. Welch\u2019s handling of it, and his defense of Owens, led Tampa Bay Times Viewpoints Editor Graham Brink to slam that defense as \u201ctone-deaf\u201d this year in his endorsement<\/a> of one of Welch\u2019s challengers, former Gov. Charlie Crist.
\nSept. 28, 2022 \u2014 Hurricane Ian brushes St. Pete: The city dodged a bullet. Welch, figuratively, did not<\/a>. He left the Emergency Operations Center to return home to his family after the storm shifted somewhat away from the city, even as other top city staff stayed at the EOC and away from theirs. It fed a number that would haunt his reelection campaign.
\nOct. 26, 2022 \u2014 Tampa Bay Times reports<\/a> Welch swiped into City Hall just 34% of workdays: Using data from Welch\u2019s digital key card to City Hall and other city facilities, the Times calculated he had been physically present just 34% of workdays \u2014 and that he had left the EOC during Ian. The number has drawn repeated criticism, and plenty of campaign ad fodder<\/a>, that Welch doesn\u2019t show up to work.
\nJan. 30, 2023 \u2014 Welch selects the Hines\/Rays team for the Gas Plant: And there was much rejoicing. The selection<\/a> meant a deal in the works to keep the Tampa Bay Rays in St. Petersburg while redeveloping the Gas Plant District in a way that benefits all St. Pete residents. But don\u2019t get too excited.
\nJune 13, 2023 \u2014 Black leaders call out Welch on Ray Tampa\u2019s podcast: Tampa, who worked on Welch\u2019s 2021 mayoral campaign, took to his own radio broadcast to criticize Welch<\/a> for failing to adequately communicate to certain sections of the St. Pete community, including the Black community. Tampa would go on to remain one of Welch\u2019s staunchest critics.\u00a0
\nSept. 19, 2023 \u2014 $1.3 billion stadium deal announced at the Trop: The usual gripes about public subsidies for stadiums notwithstanding, Welch\u2019s legacy project appeared to be gaining steam<\/a>. But again, don\u2019t get too excited.
\nJan. 18, 2024 \u2014 Fire Chief Jim Large\u2019s forced retirement announced: Large announced his retirement<\/a> just days before City Council was set to conduct a management examination of the Fire Department, following allegations he created a hostile work environment for women and minorities. Pitched as a positive retirement at the time, Large would go on to challenge the same Mayor responsible for his downfall as chief.
\nMarch 29, 2024 \u2014 Welch announces reelection bid: The announcement<\/a> didn\u2019t exactly land with a bang, as Welch joined a race already expected to feature strong challenges. What\u2019s more, it included a pledge to run on his record, which he has done, only to face significant pushback from opponents and voters alike.
\nJuly 18, 2024 \u2014 Council approves the Rays\/Hines Gas Plant deal: Still don\u2019t get too excited.
\nAug. 16, 2024 \u2014 Tampa Bay Times breaks the $250K stadium-deal bonuses story: Welch said he was rewarding employees who had gone above and beyond their regular employment, working late nights and weekends to finalize the deal. He would later have to rescind the bonuses after it was discovered they may have been illegal<\/a>. The unforced error became, and remains, another talking point against him.
\nSept. 26, 2024 \u2014 Hurricane Helene: The storm only grazed Pinellas County on its way north through the Gulf, but storm surge inundated lower-lying areas, flooding several St. Pete neighborhoods. Welch\u2019s response would become the single largest talking point against him in the Mayor\u2019s race.
\nOct. 9, 2024 \u2014 Hurricane Milton: Just two weeks after Helene, Milton narrowly missed St. Pete, making landfall just to the south. But unlike Helene, Milton was a wind-maker. It blew the roof off Tropicana Field<\/a>, igniting a chain of events that would shape the Mayor\u2019s race \u2014 including the breakdown of the Rays stadium deal.
\nNov. 1, 2024 \u2014 Trop underinsurance reported: Before Hurricane Season, the city approved a reduction in insurance coverage<\/a> on Tropicana Field, from a maximum payout of $100 million to just $25 million \u2014 a gamble that would cost the city millions in self-funded repairs it was contractually obligated to complete.
\nNov. 21, 2024 \u2014 Council delays stadium bonds: Two days after the Pinellas County Commission delayed its bond vote \u2014 then a funding formality necessary to advance the stadium deal \u2014 City Council did the same<\/a>. But the Council\u2019s vote was a response to the Rays strongly implying the deal was dead. As it turned out, that was indeed the beginning of the end.
\nMarch 13, 2025 \u2014 Rays kill the stadium deal: We already knew it was dead<\/a>.
\nApril 22, 2025 \u2014 Albert Whitted non-aviation concepts dropped: After announcing just one month into his administration that he would study non-aviation uses at Albert Whitted Airport, Welch dropped the plan<\/a> \u2014 to the delight of the city\u2019s small but mighty small-aircraft community, which likely would have spent heavily and organized hard against him had he moved forward.
\nJune 30, 2025 \u2014 Jabil picks North Carolina: Despite being headquartered in St. Pete, Jabil opted to build<\/a> a new manufacturing center in North Carolina that would have created nearly 1,200 jobs here. Welch has been at least partially blamed for losing the bid, and it has become a talking point against him this cycle.
\nAug. 4, 2025 \u2014 Maria Scruggs first to file: Not taken terribly seriously at the time, Scruggs would emerge as a potential vote-splitter, gaining ground among the city\u2019s Black community as some began to sour on Welch.
\nAug. 28, 2025 \u2014 Ben Diamond decides not to run<\/a>: Diamond\u2018s decision paved the way for Crist to enter the race, adding a major fundraising dynamic.
\nSept. 30, 2025 \u2014 Welch reverses on the Science Center: Under pressure<\/a> from City Council, Welch reversed his position<\/a> on the St. Pete Science Center, allowing renovation plans to move forward at its existing site. Welch, leaning on a flawed study, had supported building elsewhere. His would-be opponent, Crist, helped craft the deal Welch initially rejected.
\nOct. 3, 2025 \u2014 ARK\/Ellison $6.8B unsolicited Gas Plant bid: The unsolicited bid<\/a> attracted a competitive process. The outcome would become a major talking point in the Mayor\u2019s race, and a catalyst for Crist\u2019s fundraising.
\nEarly November, 2025 \u2014 Ryan Griffin decides not to run: Griffin, a well-known local lawyer, had been considering running for Mayor briefly, but quietly suspended consideration after a week or so of conversations. A Griffin entrance would have established a sort of \u201cJeff Brandes lane\u201d<\/a> in the race, with a somewhat conservative but pragmatic voice on the ticket to balance Welch as a Democrat. His decision not to run likely helped Large land on his decision.\u00a0
\nNov. 7, 2025 \u2014 St. Pete Shines formed: A political committee launched<\/a> to support candidates committed to \u201ca brighter future\u201d for St. Pete, which would later directly support Crist\u2019s bid for Mayor. To date, the committee has raised nearly $2 million<\/a>.
\nJan. 8, 2026 \u2014 St. Pete Shines\u2019 record $725K first report: In its first report since launching, the committee reported raising a record $725,000 in just 49 days<\/a>, a pace that would largely hold throughout the Primary Election.
\nJan. 12, 2026 \u2014 Welch treasurer theft reported: Yolanda Brown, treasurer of Welch\u2019s political committee, was accused of stealing more than $200,000<\/a> from his Pelican Political Action Committee. The news hit hard. Not only was the campaign out of significant cash, Welch drew criticism as a Certified Public Accountant who hadn\u2019t caught it. The issue would remain a talking point throughout the election.
\nFeb. 2, 2026 \u2014 Welch officially files for reelection: Nothing much to see here<\/a>.
\nFeb. 3, 2026 \u2014 Nine Gas Plant proposals submitted: Following a brief 30-day submission window, nine ultimately landed at City Hall<\/a>, prompting criticism of Welch for a rushed process.
\nFeb. 5, 2026 \u2014 City Council votes to pause Gas Plant process: Citing the need for a site study, City Council voted 6-2<\/a> on a resolution opposing moving forward with the selection process. The pause idea came from Council member Brandi Gabbard, who would go on to enter the race and become a credible challenger.
\nFeb. 25, 2026 \u2014 Jim Large officially announces campaign: After weeks of speculation, the former fire chief with an embattled relationship with Welch officially jumped in<\/a>, adding a conservative option to the growing field.
\nMarch 10, 2026 \u2014 Gabbard files: Gabbard\u2019s entrance<\/a> meant another registered Democrat in the race, and an alternative to Welch. (Remember, though, the race is technically nonpartisan and party affiliation doesn\u2019t appear on the ballot.)
\nMarch 16, 2026 \u2014 Kevin Batdorf files: Batdorf never represented a direct threat to Welch, but his entrance<\/a> put a spotlight on one of Welch\u2019s key weaknesses \u2014 the \u201cWelch piles<\/a>\u201d of storm debris left sitting in neighborhoods after Hurricane Helene.
\nApril 10, 2026 \u2014 Tampa Bay Times Crist-in-Minnesota story: The Times chronicled Crist splitting time between Minnesota and St. Pete<\/a>, creating a theme his opponents and critics would exploit throughout the cycle.
\nApril 27, 2026 \u2014 Crist officially files: With well over $1 million already banked, significant name recognition and a race featuring an unpopular incumbent, Crist entered as a frontrunner<\/a>.
\nApril 29, 2026 \u2014 Crist\u2019s opening day video; Castor endorses Welch: As Crist made his first pitch (almost literally<\/a>) to St. Pete voters, Welch looked across the bay for support from Tampa Mayor Jane Castor. Her endorsement<\/a> would sting later, when Welch was called out for soliciting support from Mayors actively trying to take the Rays from St. Pete.
\nJune 9, 2026 \u2014 Suncoast Tampa Association of Realtors endorses Gabbard: A Realtor herself, Gabbard drew little surprise with the endorsement<\/a> \u2014 but it became a big resource<\/a> in an otherwise underfunded campaign<\/a>.
\nJune 9, 2026 \u2014 Welch circled at NAACP debate: At the first candidate forum of the cycle<\/a>, all eyes \u2014 and criticisms \u2014 were on Welch. He took fire over the Rays deal, hurricane response, business deals and more, a rebuke delivered at an event where he should have been the superstar.
\nJune 15, 2026 \u2014 Rouson\u2019s dual endorsement; \u201cTwenty-Three Miles\u201d launches: State Sen. Darryl Rouson, a trusted voice in St. Pete\u2019s Black community, announced he was adding Crist to his endorsement<\/a>. Rouson maintained his support for Welch at the time, but the dual endorsement was a big ding to the incumbent \u2014 and it would only get worse<\/a>. It was a double-whammy. The same day, Crist\u2019s political committee ran an ad hitting Welch<\/a> over his decision to spike the Moffitt plan.
\nJune 16, 2026 \u2014 Muhammad declines to endorse: Brother John Muhammad, a former City Council member who previously supported Welch, announced he would not endorse in the Mayor\u2019s race. Welch had been a key backer of Muhammad\u2019s appointment<\/a> to the Council in 2022. His silence didn\u2019t directly help any of Welch\u2019s opponents, but it was a sign<\/a> the incumbent was bleeding support.
\nJune 18, 2026 \u2014 League of Women Voters debate: For the first time this cycle, all six candidates shared a stage, at the League of Women Voters forum in West St. Pete. Unlike the NAACP debate, candidates stuck to policy rather than barbs \u2014 but Welch was still largely on the defensive<\/a>.
\nJune 19, 2026 \u2014 Welch PC goes negative against Crist: In the first direct attack ad from his new political committee \u2014 his third<\/a> since first running for Mayor \u2014 St. Petersburg Progress sent a text blast<\/a> calling Crist out as a former Republican. Welch is also a former Republican.
\nJune 30, 2026 \u2014 Dueling endorsements: In a show of how polarizing the race had become, Crist rolled out a huge list of Democratic supporters<\/a> the same day Welch announced support from SEIU Florida<\/a>, one of the state\u2019s largest labor unions.
\nJuly 2, 2026 \u2014 Welch selects The Burg Bid: The selection<\/a> meant rejecting ARK\/Ellison, whose plan included a new Moffitt presence in St. Pete. The decision cost Welch politically<\/a>, as financial backers of the rejected plan shifted support to Crist\u2019s political operation<\/a>.
\nJuly 7, 2026 \u2014 Gina Driscoll becomes first sitting Council member to support Crist: Driscoll\u2018s support was not just a boon for Crist, but a big rejection<\/a> of both Gabbard, her colleague and sometimes ally on the dais, and Welch as the incumbent.
\nJuly 8, 2026 \u2014 STAR reaffirms Gabbard support with statewide slate; Welch PC\u2019s first negative ad on digital and streaming: The Realtors group included Gabbard in its statewide list of endorsements<\/a>, giving that support a second set of legs, as Welch\u2019s political committee launched its first digital and streaming ad attacking Crist\u2019s record<\/a> as Governor. That theme would recur through the rest of the Primary.
\nJuly 11, 2026 \u2014 Rick Baker backs Crist; Crist grows cash-on-hand lead to about $1M: Baker, a former Mayor himself, announced his support<\/a> in a side-by-side video chat from The Hangar at Albert Whitted Airport. The same day, campaign finance reports showed Crist had grown his cash-on-hand advantage over Welch to about $1 million<\/a>.
\nJuly 13-15, 2026 \u2014 Vote-by-mail ballots drop; Crist drops an ad, then recuts it after a Welch complaint: As VBM ballots began hitting mailboxes, Crist\u2019s PC released a new ad highlighting failures at City Hall<\/a> under the current administration, contrasting them with Crist\u2019s pledge to improve affordability and get the city back on track. After Welch\u2019s campaign flagged language about property taxes under his watch, St. Pete Shines quickly cut a new version<\/a>.
\nJuly 18, 2026 \u2014 St. Pete Polls survey finds Crist with a whopping lead: The survey found Crist ahead by nearly 17 percentage points<\/a>, 34.5% to Welch\u2019s 18%. His lead would remain in double digits.
\nJuly 27, 2026 \u2014 Welch\u2019s \u201ccondemn the lie\u201d video: Welch posted a video on his personal social media channels calling on Crist to \u201ccondemn the lie,\u201d a response to claims \u2014 full disclosure, I made the claim \u2014 that Welch had an affair with his former Deputy Mayor. The video prompted a lengthy write-up from Creative Loafing<\/a> blasting not Crist, but me. It ruffled feathers at the time, but never became a major political headache for Crist.
\nJuly 28, 2026 \u2014 Crist skips Tiger Bay; 7,500 join his alternative town hall: Citing affordability, Crist declined to attend a candidate forum with the Suncoast Tiger Bay Club because it charges a fee to attend and requires paid membership to ask a question. Instead, he hosted a tele-town hall that drew some 7,500 participants<\/a>, according to St. Pete Shines. Rivals and their most vocal supporters hammered Crist for the absence<\/a>; the campaign argued it reached more voters through the town hall, and charged nobody admission to do it.
\nJuly 30, 2026 \u2014 Tampa Bay Times splits recommendation between Crist and Gabbard: In the ultimate snub, neither Times executive making candidate recommendations this cycle backed the incumbent<\/a>, despite the paper having recommended Welch in his first mayoral race. Brink backed Crist; President and CEO Conan Gallaty threw in for Gabbard.
\nAug. 6, 2026 \u2014 City Council takes up a utility rate hike, setting the stage for Gabbard trouble: City Council began its first public discussion<\/a> of raising utility fees across the board \u2014 potable water, wastewater and stormwater, sanitation and reclaimed water. The conversation set up an Aug. 13 vote in the affirmative<\/a>, with final approval expected Aug. 27. It immediately became a wedge issue<\/a>, casting Gabbard and Welch as fee-raising leaders at a time when residents can least afford it, against Crist as the candidate vowing to slash fees and property taxes.
\nAug. 8, 2026 \u2014 Early voting begins; final St. Pete Polls survey shows a three-way tie for second: On the day early voting began in St. Pete \u2014 and the day Crist went to vote to literal fanfare \u2014 the final St. Pete Polls survey of the race showed a statistical three-way tie for second, with Welch, Gabbard and Large all fighting to clinch a spot in the November runoff. The poll, like others before it, put Crist ahead by double digits.<\/p>\n
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