{"id":377154,"date":"2026-08-21T03:36:10","date_gmt":"2026-08-21T03:36:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/377154\/"},"modified":"2026-08-21T03:36:10","modified_gmt":"2026-08-21T03:36:10","slug":"data-shows-charlie-crist-making-himself-at-home-on-ken-welchs-turf","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/377154\/","title":{"rendered":"Data shows Charlie Crist making himself at home on Ken Welch\u2019s turf"},"content":{"rendered":"

St. Petersburg Mayor Ken Welch has a clear base heading into November in majority-Black precincts across South St. Petersburg. Still, former Gov. Charlie Crist was often right behind him, according to a data analysis of Primary Election results.<\/p>\n

Crist won Tuesday\u2019s six-way mayoral Primary<\/a> with roughly 35% of the vote, while Welch finished second with about 21%, sending both to a Nov. 3 runoff. But a Tampa Bay Times analysis<\/a> of the results found Welch\u2019s victories concentrated overwhelmingly in majority- or plurality-Black precincts, particularly in South St. Petersburg. Welch won just four precincts outside of that group, including only two districts north of Central Avenue.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s more, the Times analysis found Welch fared no better than third place in the Primary Election in 70% of the city\u2019s precincts, while Crist fared no worse than second place in any of the city\u2019s 84 precincts.<\/p>\n

But a closer analysis of the data, as compiled by the Times into precinct-by-precinct numbers, shows much more.<\/p>\n

Welch wins Black neighborhoods, but Crist is not far behind<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The Times characterized majority-Black neighborhoods as the exception to Crist\u2019s dominance elsewhere in St. Petersburg, saying Welch \u201cmaintained a strong pull\u201d in those precincts. A closer look at the data shows Welch\u2019s victories there were far from monolithic.<\/p>\n

Across the precincts Welch carried, Crist generally received between 25% and 33% of the vote, while Welch\u2019s support ranged from roughly 35% to 52%. The widest apparent gap came in Precinct 113, at Christ Gospel Church on 22nd Ave. South, where Welch received about 52% to Crist\u2019s 22%. Welch\u2019s narrowest win margin among precincts he carried was at precinct 227, at Fifth Ave. Church of Christ on 5th Ave. South, where Welch won by just 2 percentage points. At nearby precinct 228, at St. Luke\u2019s United Methodist Church, Welch won by 4 points.<\/p>\n

In other words, Welch won his strongest neighborhoods and sometimes comfortably. But even across that territory, Crist was routinely capturing roughly a quarter to a third of the vote.<\/p>\n

Tuesday\u2019s precinct results do not show Crist overtaking Welch in predominantly Black neighborhoods, but they do show that even where Welch was strongest, Crist already has a substantial foothold.<\/p>\n

That gives Crist something Welch does not appear to have: some level of meaningful support even in precincts he lost.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Crist cuts into Republican territory.<\/p>\n

Republican-leaning precincts also went for Crist, despite voters having two Republicans \u2014 former St. Petersburg Fire Chief Jim Large and businessman Kevin Batdorf \u2014 on the ballot.<\/p>\n

That is especially notable given the election coincides with high-profile races for Governor, U.S. Senate and Congress, which will likely translate to a high Republican voter turnout in November.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Still, even Large generally finished second to Crist in GOP-leaning areas such as Shore Acres and portions of west St. Petersburg. Large won just one precinct, at South Causeway Isles, according to the Times.<\/p>\n

Crist therefore enters November having already shown crossover appeal in parts of the city where a Democrat might otherwise expect to struggle \u2014 and where Welch has even less obvious room to grow.<\/p>\n

Hurricane Helene and Milton response may be sinking Welch<\/p>\n

Batdorf, who made Welch\u2019s response to Hurricanes Helene and Milton a centerpiece of his campaign, backed Crist Wednesday<\/a> while again criticizing the administration\u2019s storm recovery efforts and management of City Hall.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The hurricane issue offers one of the clearest examples of how Welch\u2019s 2021 coalition fractured, and the data supports it.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Times found several flood-hit neighborhoods that supported Welch in 2021 moved sharply away from him Tuesday.<\/p>\n

Welch finished fourth in Allendale Park\/Five Points and Crescent Heights. He also landed near the bottom in Old Southeast, Coquina Key, Bahama Shores and the pink streets of Pinellas Point. Shore Acres and Barcley Estates, two neighborhoods hit especially hard by the 2024 storms, favored Crist and Large.<\/p>\n

While those results don\u2019t establish why individual voters abandoned Welch \u2014 his first term has drawn criticism over issues extending well beyond hurricane recovery, including fundraising struggles, campaign finance problems and the loss of several former political allies \u2014 the geography is notable. Political fallout from the storms has been a major point of criticism since before Welch even launched his re-election campaign.<\/p>\n

Democrats aren\u2019t necessarily coming back to Welch<\/p>\n

The Times identified neighborhoods that backed City Council Member Brandi Gabbard as potential fertile ground for Welch in November. But Tuesday\u2019s results offer a reason for caution.<\/p>\n

Gabbard won just two precincts, in Democratic-rich Historic Kenwood and Central Oak Park. Welch finished third in both. <\/p>\n

Those voters already had Welch on the ballot and chose another Democrat instead.<\/p>\n

That does not mean they will break for Crist in November, but it also doesn\u2019t guarantee they\u2019ll break for Welch.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The other 45%<\/p>\n

About 45% of Tuesday\u2019s vote went to candidates who will not be on the ballot in November, leaving Crist and Welch two months to compete for voters who rejected both of them in the Primary.<\/p>\n

Batdorf has already endorsed Crist, while Large declined to back either candidate. Gabbard and Scruggs supporters bring their own priorities and political allegiances, and November will also draw voters who skipped the Primary altogether.<\/p>\n

That makes any simple vote-transfer math unreliable speculation. But the precinct results, especially paired with Crist\u2019s more than 14-point advantage over Welch at the polls Tuesday, do show that Welch has the more difficult assignment.<\/p>\n

Crist can spend the next two months trying to consolidate a lead that already stretches across nearly every part of the city, and chipping away at Welch\u2019s strongest footholds.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Welch must win back voters in neighborhoods he carried five years ago, expand beyond the precincts he still holds and keep Crist from gaining more ground in his strongest territory.<\/p>\n

Crist has room to grow almost everywhere. Welch has no ground left to surrender.\u00a0<\/p>\n

___<\/p>\n

Ed. note: Michelle Todd Schorsch is the Chair of St. Pete Shines, a political committee backing Crist for St. Petersburg Mayor. Todd Schorsch is married to Peter Schorsch, the publisher of Florida Politics.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"St. Petersburg Mayor Ken Welch has a clear base heading into November in majority-Black precincts across South St.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":330925,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[47499,3300,3347,3125,1802,71439,2346,72295,3175,130240,202,204,3176,3304,203,7382,199,201,200,19880],"class_list":["post-377154","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-st-petersburg","tag-2026-elections","tag-brandi-gabbard","tag-charlie-crist","tag-hurricane-helene","tag-hurricane-milton","tag-jim-large","tag-ken-welch","tag-kevin-batdorf","tag-maria-scruggs","tag-south-st-petersburg","tag-st-pete","tag-st-pete-headlines","tag-st-pete-mayor","tag-st-pete-mayoral-race","tag-st-pete-news","tag-st-pete-polls","tag-st-petersburg","tag-st-petersburg-headlines","tag-st-petersburg-news","tag-tampa-bay-times"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/377154","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=377154"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/377154\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/330925"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=377154"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=377154"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=377154"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}