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A supporter listens to former President Donald Trump speak during the Turning Point Believers Summit at the Palm Beach County Civic Center on Friday, July 26, 2024.<\/p>\n
PHOTO BY AL DIAZ<\/p>\n
adiaz@miamiherald.com<\/p>\n
Two years into President Donald Trump\u2019s second term, voters in South Florida are divided on the direction he\u2019s taken the nation, and which way to turn the ship for the next two years. All eyes are set on the midterm elections to see how the voting tides have shifted or stayed the same.<\/p>\n
Political experts in Florida are paying particular attention to Miami-Dade voters this election season to see how inflation, the Iran war and President Trump\u2019s intense crackdown on immigration has changed views of his second term in office.<\/p>\n
Miami-Dade is a crucial county to measure Trump\u2019s popularity because two years ago he became the first Republican presidential candidate to win the state\u2019s largest county in more than three decades.<\/p>\n
Trump trounced Democrat Kamala Harris by 11 points in Miami-Dade in November 2024 to win Florida for the third presidential election in a row. He won the state by a whopping 13 percentage points, a landslide in a state that used to be highly competitive every four years.<\/p>\n
A recent poll of Hispanic voters in Florida<\/a> shows that Trump\u2019s popularity has waned over the past two years. It found 51% disapproved of Trump\u2019s performance in office, while only 41% approved.<\/p>\n The survey also found that 20% of Hispanics in Florida who voted for Trump in 2024 would not repeat their vote. Miami-Dade, one of the nation\u2019s largest counties, is home to 2.8 million people. A large majority, roughly 71%<\/a>, are Hispanic.<\/p>\n Miami-Dade voters<\/p>\n J.C., a longtime Republican voter from the city of Miami Springs who asked not to use his full name for privacy, said this election season has him more disillusioned than ever.<\/p>\n Every week, J.C. sits with a group of men outside a Cuban cafe to talk politics and current events. His group is made up almost entirely of die-hard Trump voters, he said, and their political views haven\u2019t changed at all in the last few years. So, J.C. stays quiet and doesn\u2019t express how things have changed for him.<\/p>\n \u201cI\u2019m troubled now because I don\u2019t have any confidence either in Republicans or Democrats. I think it\u2019s all the same coin, different sides,\u201d he told WLRN.<\/p>\n J.C. voted for Trump in 2016 and in 2020. He saw Trump as a chance to weed out what he saw as rampant government corruption. Now, his feelings for the president have soured after seeing numerous scandals and witnessing the U.S. government\u2019s increasing involvement with Israel.<\/p>\n \u201cHe gave me the impression he was gonna at least tackle some of the swamp. In reality, Trump is a swamp, and he\u2019s really capitulated tremendously to a point where some people think he\u2019s a traitor,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n The shift in JC\u2019s opinion represents a broader malaise felt by some voters nationwide.<\/p>\n \u2018Trump fatigue\u2019<\/p>\n Dario Moreno, a professor of political science at Florida International University, says \u201cTrump fatigue\u201d may be wearing down voters, including Trump supporters.<\/p>\n \u201cEvery day there\u2019s a headline on Trump. He\u2019s always looking for a new controversy, a new issue,\u201d Moreno told WLRN. \u201cHe\u2019s very good at dominating the national dialogue, but it also leads to a fatigue. These are the things that should worry Republicans.\u201d<\/p>\n Moreno says Democrats have an advantage going into this year\u2019s elections because historically, the party out of power has the leg up in midterms. That tailwind, along with growing frustration among working class voters over the increased cost of living, could work in the party\u2019s favor.<\/p>\n There\u2019s also a growing movement among younger voters angered by Trump\u2019s policies, especially violent crackdowns from Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents.<\/p>\n Despite the potential backlash, Moreno and other political experts say Republicans still have advantages in their favor, especially in Florida. Republicans have a massive fundraising lead this year of at least $500 million over Democrats. Republican voters in Florida also outnumber Democratic voters by more than 1 million.<\/p>\n New redistricting maps<\/p>\n There\u2019s also the detrimental effects for Democrats of recent redistricting<\/a> in Florida.<\/p>\n \u201cThat redistricting effort that the Republicans and DeSantis backed really looks like it\u2019s gonna reduce the number of Democrats here in Florida. It leaves a couple of seats for them to fight over very contentious,\u201d said South Florida political analyst Sean Foreman during a recent conversation on the South Florida Roundup<\/a>.<\/p>\n In South Florida, those controversial Trump policies hit home directly for Miami voters like Aisha Miller.<\/p>\n \u201cICE is in Allapattah as we speak, I see them. I just saw somebody get snatched up. I watched a family ripped apart,\u201d she told WLRN.<\/p>\n Miller is a 25-year-old voter who\u2019s volunteering for the campaign of Daphne Campbell \u2014 a Democratic candidate for Florida House District 108 in Miami.<\/p>\n Miller says she\u2019s seen her neighbors fearful of being picked up by immigration officers and has seen them patrolling her neighborhood.<\/p>\n She says she and others around her age are frustrated by the current power structure in politics and is looking to see radical change in the midterms and beyond.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s about people in power who don\u2019t understand that they\u2019re humans just like everyone else, or don\u2019t believe humans are supposed to have basic necessities just like everyone else,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n Many Hispanic voters in Miami-Dade are also still very much in favor of the Republican party and Trump\u2019s policies.<\/p>\n \u201cMy political affiliation to the Republican party has gotten stronger. I feel more conservative than I was before,\u201d said Cutler Bay voter Javier Abreu.<\/p>\n Abreu came to the U.S. from Cuba a little over 20 years ago and is now a citizen. He says he\u2019s supports federal and state immigration crackdowns and wants to eliminate what he calls a \u201csocialist invasion\u201d from the Democratic party.<\/p>\n \u201cThe standard of living has improved in Florida thanks to the policies against the uncontrolled immigration under the previous administration,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n