A mid-summer turnaround has vaulted the Padres (72-62) into National League contention. As things stand right now, San Diego possesses the Senior Circuit\u2019s final wild card spot. This weekend\u2019s three-game series will serve as a crucial litmus test for the Friars. The Rays (79-54), owners of the AL\u2019s best record, have their eyes set on a World Series appearance. Still, Tampa Bay needs to fend off the rival Yankees and Red Sox in the top-heavy American League East. Which side will come out on top this evening at the Trop?<\/p>\n
The Rays are favorites (-128)<\/a> over the Padres; the over\/under is set at 7.5 runs<\/a>. Below, I\u2019ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday\u2019s showdown between San Diego and Tampa Bay on DraftKings Sportsbook<\/a>.<\/p>\n Padres vs. Rays pick, best bet today<\/p>\n Rays ML (-128)<\/a>: Mize has pitched poorly during his brief time in San Diego, and Friday\u2019s game offers no reprieve. Tampa Bay\u2019s contact-oriented lineup is capable of driving up the pitch count and getting into the bullpen early. On the other side, McClanahan should find success against a Padres offense that struggles against lefties.<\/p>\n Padres vs. Rays prediction, preview<\/p>\n San Diego\u2019s strength is on the mound, specifically a super bullpen. Still, the road to closer Mason Miller requires a decent effort from the team\u2019s starting pitching. Fortunately, the front office was aggressive in adding to the rotation during August 3rd\u2019s trade deadline. New acquisition Casey Mize, brought over from Detroit, has been ineffective during his brief time with the Padres. Over four starts, he\u2019s on the hook for a 7.00 ERA. Still, the former All-Star\u2019s track record speaks for itself. Over 20 total starts this season, Mize has delivered a 3.43 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 95 strikeouts (8.2 K\/9).<\/p>\n Mize\u2019s biggest issue in recent weeks has been a propensity for coughing up base hits. That doesn\u2019t exactly bode well heading into Friday\u2019s matchup. The Rays, despite a lack of power, can hold their own at the plate. That\u2019s due to their capacity for (you guessed it) racking up hits. Tampa Bay is first in batting average (.260), fifth in on-base percentage (.329) and tied for seventh in OPS (.731). This lineup hasn\u2019t been great lately, scoring the sixth-fewest runs in baseball (36) over their last ten contests. Still, there\u2019s some reason for optimism tonight. The Rays have difficulty elevating the ball, putting up an American League-worst 45.7% ground ball rate. However, Mize only places inside the eighth percentile among qualified starters with a 31.8% ground ball rate. <\/p>\n As for Tampa Bay, Shane McClanahan will get the nod on Friday. It\u2019s been a bounceback campaign from the southpaw, still among the American League\u2019s best arms. Through 107.1 innings (22 starts), he\u2019s delivered a 3.10 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 99 strikeouts (8.3 K\/9). It helps that today\u2019s contest takes place at the friendly confines of Tropicana Field; Sugar Shane owns a 2.32 ERA at the venue this season. McClanahan, unlike Mize, frequently forces opponents to hit one into the dirt. His 46.9% ground ball rate places him within the league\u2019s 74th percentile. During his most recent appearance, the 29-year-old tossed five scoreless innings vs. the Orioles.<\/p>\n The Padres haven\u2019t been the most consistent group at the plate this season. However, the past few months have been a boon for this group. Since July 1st, they\u2019re sixth in baseball with 239 runs scored. With that being said, Friday\u2019s contest presents a few issues for most of these hitters. San Diego has a .687 OPS against left-handed pitching, tied for eighth-worst in the majors. During this week\u2019s three-game series vs. Pittsburgh, the Friars only managed to score a combined five runs. When McClanahan last faced the Padres in 2023, he allowed just one run over 6.2 innings. Granted, that was three years ago, but it\u2019s a positive sign at the very least.<\/p>\n