{"id":396497,"date":"2026-09-11T03:28:11","date_gmt":"2026-09-11T03:28:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/396497\/"},"modified":"2026-09-11T03:28:11","modified_gmt":"2026-09-11T03:28:11","slug":"forecast-model-shows-a-hurricane-near-florida-will-it-materialize","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/396497\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast model shows a hurricane near Florida. Will it materialize?"},"content":{"rendered":"

ORLANDO, Fla. \u2013 There is no current and credible threat from the tropics to the state of Florida.<\/p>\n

The purpose of this story is to dispel social media hype and look into why such a threat is unlikely at this time.<\/p>\n

Social media has lit up with model runs of the American GFS showing a hurricane threat from the Gulf during the last week of September.<\/p>\n

\"\"GFS model shows a likely phantom hurricane near Florida around Sept. 22.<\/p>\n

It is the only model showing a Gulf hurricane during that time period. This alone makes any kind of Gulf threat skeptical. <\/p>\n

Digging deeper, the GFS model has a well-known bias of developing phantom storms in the western Caribbean and Gulf.<\/p>\n

In the long range, the most reliable tools to use to sniff out possible tropical develop are ensembles.<\/p>\n

\"\"Euro ensembles<\/p>\n

The most reliable ensembles shows little-to-no development in the Gulf.<\/p>\n

\"\"Google DeepMind AI ensmeble<\/p>\n

Ensembles are made up of dozens of individual members with different initial conditions put into them to account for uncertainty. <\/p>\n

When there are many members showing a similar solution confidence in an outcome increases.<\/p>\n

Less than a handful of the European and Google DeepMind A.I. suggest development around Sept. 21.<\/p>\n

Officially, the Climate Prediction Center has an area highlighted east of Florida for possible development, but no Gulf threat.<\/p>\n

\"\"Climate Prediction Center outlook<\/p>\n

This is likely from a cold front stalling off the Southeast U.S. aiding in tropical development rather than from anything forming in the deep tropics.<\/p>\n

Sept. 10 marks the peak of hurricane season and while it has been quiet, more than 50% of the season remains.<\/p>\n

The Atlantic as a whole may have a brief window of favorability at the end of September and early October.<\/p>\n

Hurricane season runs through November.<\/p>\n

Copyright 2026 by WKMG ClickOrlando – All rights reserved.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"ORLANDO, Fla. \u2013 There is no current and credible threat from the tropics to the state of Florida.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":396498,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[28,30,29,1846,221],"class_list":["post-396497","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-florida","tag-florida","tag-florida-headlines","tag-florida-news","tag-hurricane","tag-weather"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/396497","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=396497"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/396497\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/396498"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=396497"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=396497"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=396497"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}