{"id":403004,"date":"2026-09-17T23:38:11","date_gmt":"2026-09-17T23:38:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/403004\/"},"modified":"2026-09-17T23:38:11","modified_gmt":"2026-09-17T23:38:11","slug":"breaking-down-mlb-playoff-races-as-regular-season-nears-finale","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/403004\/","title":{"rendered":"Breaking down MLB playoff races as regular season nears finale"},"content":{"rendered":"

With only a little more than a week left in the MLB regular season, two of the six divisions<\/a> are totally up for grabs.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s still too early to call two of the other division races.<\/p>\n

And the wild-card races in both leagues could come down to the wire \u2014 especially in the American League, where four non-division-leaders are scratching and clawing for the final spot.<\/p>\n

Buckle in.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a bizarre year in baseball, where it\u2019s not impossible \u2014 albeit unlikely \u2014 that three teams in the AL could sneak into the playoffs with a sub-.500 record.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the three best teams in the league all reside in the AL East \u2014 and because the MLB postseason does not reseed from round to round, it\u2019s likely only one of them will be able to advance to the ALCS.<\/p>\n

Debates will rage about whether reseeding is necessary moving forward, but that\u2019s a problem for the future.<\/p>\n

Right now, the focus is on the ever-changing 2026 playoff field. Here\u2019s where it stands as the Sept. 27 regular-season finale nears.<\/p>\n

AL EAST<\/p>\n

In any other AL division, the Yankees<\/a> would have run away with first place, would be preparing for a first-round bye in the playoffs and would be able to line up their pitching for the ALDS.<\/p>\n

But this isn\u2019t any other division.<\/p>\n

This is the loaded AL East, where the unrelenting Tampa Bay Rays remain in the driver\u2019s seat.<\/p>\n

After Thursday\u2019s 10-1 win over the A\u2019s, the league-best Rays (93-59) boast a five-game lead over the second-place Yankees (88-64), who had the day off.<\/p>\n

FanGraphs\u2019 playoff prediction model<\/a> now gives the Rays a 95.8% chance of winning the division, compared to the Yankees\u2019 4.2% odds.<\/p>\n

The Yankees have only 10 games remaining, but their slight division dreams remain alive because they host the Rays for a four-game series in the Bronx next week.<\/p>\n

Sweeping that series would give the Yankees the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Rays, but losing even one game would mean Tampa clinches the season series.<\/p>\n

The Boston Red Sox have been eliminated from AL East contention.<\/p>\n

AL CENTRAL<\/p>\n

The Chicago White Sox had led the Central since July 3, but a recent cold stretch \u2014 including dropping two of three to the Cleveland Guardians this week \u2014 allowed the Guardians to move into first place.<\/p>\n

Entering Thursday, the battle-tested Guardians (78-75) held a half-game lead over the ascendant White Sox, who, after three straight 100-loss seasons, seek their first winning record and playoff berth since 2021.<\/p>\n

FanGraphs gave Cleveland a 57.9% chance of winning the division and the White Sox 42.0% odds.<\/p>\n

Still, the White Sox own the head-to-head tiebreaker over Cleveland after winning the season series, and their remaining strength of schedule (.432) is easier than the Guardians\u2019 (.461).<\/p>\n

While not mathematically eliminated, the disappointing Detroit Tigers and the Minnesota Twins are all but out of it.<\/p>\n

AL WEST<\/p>\n

The woeful West doesn\u2019t have a single team with a positive run differential, but someone has to win it.<\/p>\n

Most likely, that will be the Houston Astros or Texas Rangers, who entered Thursday tied atop the division at 76-76 apiece.<\/p>\n

Houston holds the head-to-head tiebreaker and has series remaining against the Atlanta Braves, Seattle Mariners and A\u2019s.<\/p>\n

The Astros began Thursday with a 61.2% chance of winning the West, according to FanGraphs, compared to Texas, which had 38.4% odds with series against the Toronto Blue Jays, Mets and Twins still to go.<\/p>\n

AL WILD CARD<\/p>\n

The Yankees have clinched a playoff spot and are close to locking down the top AL wild-card spot. They began Thursday with a six-game lead over Boston, in addition to owning the tiebreaker.<\/p>\n

Boston will almost certainly finish in the second wild-card spot, which \u2014 if all holds \u2014 would mean facing the Yankees in the Wild Card round in the Bronx for a second straight postseason.<\/p>\n

The third wild-card position has far more intrigue.<\/p>\n

The contenders that lose the AL Central and AL West will both be in the wild-card mix. Same goes for the Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles.<\/p>\n

Entering Thursday, the White Sox held the final wild-card spot, with a one-game lead over Texas, a 1.5-game lead over the Jays and a 2.5-game lead over the O\u2019s.<\/p>\n

No one had better than 28.0% odds of claiming the spot.<\/p>\n

NL EAST<\/p>\n

This is the closest of the NL division races, and it\u2019s not especially close.<\/p>\n

The Braves (89-64) entered their off-day Thursday with a 4.5-game lead over the Philadelphia Phillies and had already clinched the head-to-head tiebreaker, effectively making it a 5.5-game advantage.<\/p>\n

FanGraphs gave Atlanta a 99.4% chance of winning the NL East.<\/p>\n

NL CENTRAL<\/p>\n

Nothing to see here.<\/p>\n

The Milwaukee Brewers have clinched the division and, at 95-67 to begin Thursday, are well on their way to the NL\u2019s top seed.<\/p>\n

NL WEST<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a similar situation in the West, where the back-to-back defending-champion Los Angeles Dodgers began Thursday with a magic number of one to win the division.<\/p>\n

That meant the next Dodgers win or any loss by the San Diego Padres (who were nine games behind them) would wrap up the division crown for Los Angeles.<\/p>\n

NL WILD CARD<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s where it gets a little more interesting, as four teams are vying for the three NL wild-card spots.<\/p>\n

The Chicago Cubs (85-68) began Thursday in the top NL wild-card position and with a half-game lead over the Phillies, who held the second spot.<\/p>\n

The Phillies had a one-game edge over the Padres, who held the third and final wild-card spot.<\/p>\n

And the Padres were 3.5 games ahead of the Arizona Diamondbacks (80-73), who were off Thursday before they begin a three-game series against the Yankees in Phoenix this weekend.<\/p>\n

That means five games separate the four teams.<\/p>\n

The Cubs had a 99.9% chance of taking one of the spots, per FanGraphs, while Philadelphia had a 97.4% chance of being a wild card and 98.0% odds of making the playoffs.<\/p>\n

San Diego had 86.3% odds of making it as a wild card.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a much steeper climb for the D-Backs, whose playoff odds were just 15.8%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"With only a little more than a week left in the MLB regular season, two of the six…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":403005,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[77436,99054,14896,42159,3817,111510,160295,23181,85680,202,204,203,199,201,200,54921,77437],"class_list":["post-403004","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-st-petersburg","tag-astros","tag-cubs","tag-dodgers","tag-mets","tag-mlb","tag-phillies","tag-playoff-races","tag-rays","tag-red-sox","tag-st-pete","tag-st-pete-headlines","tag-st-pete-news","tag-st-petersburg","tag-st-petersburg-headlines","tag-st-petersburg-news","tag-wild-card","tag-yankees"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/403004","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=403004"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/403004\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/403005"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=403004"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=403004"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=403004"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}