Liam Coen put two tight ends on the field for 39.3% of Jacksonville\u2019s snaps against Cleveland, and that tells us a lot about his adoption of heavy personnel. That figure represents more than twice last season\u2019s rate. Trevor Lawrence used play action on 43.5% of his dropbacks, too. Coen kept calling passes from formations that got his quarterback into space by giving Cleveland good reason to commit to the run. Part of me wonders whether or not Coen was doing all this\u2014to great success, mind you\u2014as a test run for this very Broncos defense. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week\u2019s NFL game between the Denver Broncos and the Jacksonville Jaguars.<\/p>\n
Here\u2019s how I\u2019ll play it. I\u2019ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on\u00a0DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits<\/a> for more betting plays.<\/p>\n Denver is poised, but they can still get caught between these formations. With linebackers on the field, Coen can call passes for his tight ends; against another defensive back, he can hand the ball to Bhayshul Tuten. Lawrence has Brian Thomas Jr. and Jakobi Meyers available after limited practices, so Jacksonville can spread the field from its usual receiving formations, too. Denver\u2019s used to heavy packages, as it\u2019s a league-wide movement right now. But the skill position group in Jacksonville, combined with all their momentum and their searing-hot franchise quarterback\u2014it might feel a little like a punch in the mouth at home from the jump.<\/p>\n Denver\u2019s preference for man coverage gives Lawrence a second way to attack. The Broncos have played man on 36% of their coverage snaps since 2025. During that same period, Lawrence has averaged 8.58 YPA against man on 158 dropbacks, while the fantasy football supernova Parker Washington has produced 2.93 yards per route on 95 routes. Washington caught six passes for 145 yards and a touchdown against Denver last season. Lawrence will be looking for him on the passing downs when the run fake fools nobody.<\/p>\n Lawrence threw four touchdowns on 23 attempts against Cleveland. I\u2019ll happily accept less spectacular production if Coen keeps creating favorable passing situations, which he will. He\u2019s a sicko for this kind of stuff with Lawrence. Denver also allowed the second-fewest adjusted yards before contact last season. Kenneth Walker\u2019s 173-yard opener against the Broncos should raise our eyebrows, but I\u2019d still expect Tuten to face a much harder afternoon than that. Coen should still expect to need Lawrence to do his thing on third down.<\/p>\n Denver has more repair work on offense than it does momentum-ferrying. Bo Nix averaged 6.4 yards per attempt across an NFL-high 612 attempts last season, then just 4.7 against Kansas City. His average target traveled just 3.8 yards in that opener. New play-caller Davis Webb has a short week after Monday\u2019s road game to develop something more productive, and he\u2019ll need to. The blame falls on both Nix and Webb, but it sure felt like Webb didn\u2019t set his franchise QB up for success.<\/p>\n