In yet another political shocker, an independent election results and forecasting service says Florida’s race for governor is now a “toss up” between Republican Byron Donalds and Democrat David Jolly.<\/p>\n
Decision Desk HQ<\/a> said in a Sept. 23 social media post that it was reclassifying the contest from “Leans Republican.”<\/p>\n “In our gubernatorial forecast update, Florida’s gubernatorial race has shifted into the Toss Up column. Byron Donalds now has a 60% win probability, down from 68% at the start of September,” the post said.<\/p>\n Scenes from Byron Donalds campaign rally in Wakulla County<\/p>\n 1 of 16<\/p>\n Republican candidate for Florida governor Byron Donalds speaks to supporters at a rally held at El Jalisco in Crawfordville, Florida on Thursday, Aug. 13, 2026. (Alicia Devine\/Tallahassee Democrat)<\/p>\n This comes as registered Republicans still outpace Democrats<\/a> by over 1.5 million voters (or 5,649,410 to 4,098,139) as of Aug. 31, according to state Division of Elections data.<\/p>\n The move is the strongest rating change to favor Jolly and his running mate, former congresswoman Gwen Graham. The Cook Political Report on Aug. 27, for example, had moved Florida<\/a> from “Solid R” to “Likely R.”<\/p>\n And Sabato’s Crystal Ball had moved the Florida governor’s race from “Likely Republican” to “Leans Republican,” explaining that a “persistently poor national environment for Republicans informs several rating changes this week toward Democrats,” its report said<\/a>.<\/p>\n Regardless, the Decision Desk announcement was met with derision by GOP-favoring commenters. As one person put it, “Florida Gubernatorial and Senate races are Safe R. Thank you and you’re welcome.”<\/p>\n As of 12:45 p.m., a request for comment was pending with the Donalds campaign.<\/p>\n Locals attend meet and greet with David Jolly, Gwen Graham<\/p>\n 1 of 30<\/p>\n Democratic candidate for Florida governor David Jolly speaks to community members at Earley\u2019s Kitchen on Friday, Aug. 28, 2026. (Alicia Devine\/Tallahassee Democrat)<\/p>\n “The Florida Governor’s race is officially a toss-up, but that won’t change our approach,” Jolly-Graham campaign senior advisor Mark Riddle said in a statement. “David will continue to focus on reaching every voter to share the change agenda that got us here: housing, healthcare, education, and stopping data centers.<\/p>\n “Our campaign has built a strong coalition, and that support will only grow as Floridians learn more about why David is the clear choice in this race.”<\/p>\n Some Republican candidates across the country have sought to emphasize local issues and create distance from Trump amid declining approval ratings and concerns that voter dissatisfaction with the president could hurt them in competitive races.<\/p>\n The Miami Herald recently reported that Donalds removed at least eight prominent references<\/a> to President Donald Trump from his campaign website.<\/p>\n The campaign said the changes were intended to highlight issues important to Floridians, including affordability, insurance costs and government transparency. Campaign spokesperson Gates McGavick told the Herald that Donalds remains proud to have Trump’s endorsement.<\/p>\n This is developing news story and will be updated with reaction and more information. Check back later for more.<\/p>\n Jim Rosica is a member of the USA TODAY Network \u2013 Florida Capital Bureau. Reach him at jrosica@tallahassee.com<\/a> and follow him on Twitter\/X: @JimRosicaFL.<\/p>\n