{"id":410152,"date":"2026-09-25T09:04:23","date_gmt":"2026-09-25T09:04:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/410152\/"},"modified":"2026-09-25T09:04:23","modified_gmt":"2026-09-25T09:04:23","slug":"new-stetson-poll-casts-doubt-on-blue-wave-in-florida","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/410152\/","title":{"rendered":"New Stetson poll casts doubt on blue wave in Florida"},"content":{"rendered":"

A new survey of two statewide races and November\u2019s Amendment 3<\/a> shows Republicans in a stronger position than in other recent polling, while still raising doubts about the future of property tax reform.<\/p>\n

The poll from Stetson University\u2019s Center for Public Opinion Research (CPOR<\/a>) shows gubernatorial candidate\u00a0Byron Donalds<\/a> and U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody<\/a> with majority support and double-digit leads among likely voters over Democratic opponents David Jolly<\/a> and\u00a0Angie Nixon<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Donalds has 51% support, 12 points ahead of Jolly. Moody also has 51%, with Nixon 11 points behind.<\/p>\n

Tellingly, the poll suggests Republicans and Democrats have both begun to come home. None of the candidates has more than 7% support from voters in the other party, which benefits the GOP given its registration advantage and superior infrastructure. Independents are split, meanwhile. Jolly and Moody both have 5-point edges over their opponents with that group.<\/p>\n

The Stetson poll suggests that part of the problem for Democratic candidates is that Black voters are more willing than in decades to support Republican candidates.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Donalds, the first Black Republican gubernatorial nominee, is said to be the choice of 25% of Black voters, denoting demographic difficulty for the Democratic candidate. Jolly has struggled<\/a> to court Black voters, with some Democratic politicians crossing party lines to endorse his opponent.<\/p>\n

While Nixon, a Democratic state Representative from Jacksonville, could be the first Black Senator from Florida, 20% of Black voters say they support Moody.<\/p>\n

The poll provides possible explanations for that, as voters don\u2019t know Nixon and generally approve of the job performance of Moody, a former Attorney General who was appointed to replace the current Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, last year.<\/p>\n

Thirty-two percent of voters have never heard of Nixon; another 25% reject her, while 35% say they know her and could support her. Meanwhile, 47% of respondents know Moody and are open to voting for her.<\/p>\n

That, coupled with Moody\u2019s +18 favorability rating (50% approval vs. 32% disapproval), disadvantages Nixon, a populist candidate who hasn\u2019t received resources or support from establishment Democrats the way candidates in other states have.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The survey suggests that voter behavior in 2022 and 2024 is predictive for this election as well.<\/p>\n

\u201cEighty-five percent of 2022 (Ron) DeSantis voters back Donalds in 2026, and 85% of 2022 (Charlie) Crist voters back Jolly. On the Senate side, 86% of 2024 (Donald) Trump voters back Moody and 84% of 2024 (Kamala) Harris voters back Nixon,\u201d the polling report reads.<\/p>\n

While Donalds and Moody are well-positioned, the proposal to raise the homestead exemption for non-school taxes to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028 is not, even in a poll otherwise friendly to Republicans.<\/p>\n

It has just 51% support, with 25% of survey participants against it and 24% on the fence. While 61% of Republicans support it, approval hovers in the low 40s among Democrats and voters not aligned with either major party.<\/p>\n

Stetson polled 830 Floridians between Sept. 14 and Sept. 21 via an online non-probability panel administered by Qualtrics.<\/p>\n

Jolly adviser Mark Riddle disputes the methodology of what he calls a \u201cgarbage poll.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThey have 77% White. On the best day for GOP, it is 67% White. They have college-educated at 31, not 37. They have GOP weight at 50%, not 42. Do better in your reporting out.\u201d<\/p>\n

Perhaps consistent with that reading, the data for all three ballot questions diverge in favor of Republicans compared with a St. Pete Polls<\/a> survey conducted this month for Florida Politics.<\/p>\n

The\u00a0races for Governor<\/a>\u00a0and U.S. Senate<\/a> were dead heats in that survey, while Amendment 3 only had 45% support.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"A new survey of two statewide races and November\u2019s Amendment 3 shows Republicans in a stronger position than…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":410153,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[133243,18523,3853,445,1813,28,30,29,162764],"class_list":["post-410152","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-florida","tag-amendment-3","tag-angie-nixon","tag-ashley-moody","tag-byron-donalds","tag-david-jolly","tag-florida","tag-florida-headlines","tag-florida-news","tag-stetson-universitys-center-for-public-opinion-research-cpor"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/410152","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=410152"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/410152\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/410153"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=410152"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=410152"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=410152"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}