Hurricane Isaias was intensifying Thursday as the Gulf Coast braced for a direct hit from the Atlantic season\u2019s first hurricane, somewhere between eastern Mississippi and the western Florida Panhandle within 48 hours, forecasters said.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe worst impacts of Isaias are going to be exaggeratedly on the eastern flank of the storm. But basically, anyone east of Biloxi is on notice, with a special notice for folks between Mobile and Destin, [Florida,] right now,\u201d Houston-based meteorologist Matt Lanza wrote, regarding potential landfall, on his Eyewall<\/a> blog.<\/p>\n Isaias has tied a 121-year-old record for the latest-forming initial hurricane of the Atlantic season. That mark was set on Oct. 8, 1905, according to the National Weather Service.<\/p>\n Hurricane Isaias tracking map: Here\u2019s the latest forecast and warning areas<\/a><\/p>\n National Hurricane Center forecasters say Isaias is expected to remain a strong Category 1 or potentially Category 2 hurricane at landfall, likely along coastal Mississippi, Alabama, or the western Florida Panhandle late Friday or early Saturday.<\/p>\n Isaias forecast<\/p>\n The storm\u2019s maximum winds are expected to peak at 110 mph by late Friday afternoon, which would make it nearly a Category 3 hurricane, before moving inland by early Saturday morning, the hurricane center\u2019s advisory said.<\/p>\n A hurricane watch was issued Wednesday from Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, to Indian Pass, Florida. A storm surge watch was in effect Thursday from the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Florida\u2019s Steinhatchee River.<\/p>\n Isaias was located 175 miles north-northwest of Progreso, Mexico, and 385 miles south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River, according to the hurricane center\u2019s 8 a.m. advisory. Its maximum sustained winds were holding steady at 80 mph as it moved east-northeast at 9 mph. Its hurricane-force winds extended up to 15 miles from the center and its tropical-storm-force winds extended up to 90 miles from the center.<\/p>\n Isaias is expected to track<\/a> northeast today and north on Friday, according to forecasters. It likely will pass to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday and then strike the U.S. northern Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday.<\/p>\n National Hurricane Center forecasters expect it to peak in strength before reaching the coast, and Isaias could rapidly intensify over the coming hours. Isaias will continue strengthening through Friday morning, and \u201calmost all guidance still shows a Category 1 or 2 hurricane at landfall,\u201d the center\u2019s advisory said.<\/p>\n Forecasters also said the storm is likely to be growing in size as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast.<\/p>\n El Ni\u00f1o effect<\/p>\n During El Ni\u00f1o, low-level surface winds blowing from east to west across the Pacific are weakened or sometimes reversed. It causes a shift in the jet stream and drives record global heat, severe droughts, wildfires and shrinking water supplies. El Ni\u00f1o also typically curtails hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin. When tropical systems form in the Pacific Ocean during El Ni\u00f1os, that increases wind shear in the Caribbean, making it difficult for storms to form there.<\/p>\n Notable hurricanes that have hit the eastern United States during an El Ni\u00f1o include Lili in 2002, Ivan in 2004 and Idalia in 2023.<\/p>\n But now, the wind shear in the Gulf has weakened a bit compared with other tropical regions, so the Gulf is \u201ca little more primed for development,\u201d said Lindsey Long, a meteorologist with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\u2019s Climate Prediction Center.<\/p>\n Storm surge threat<\/p>\n