\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
Ahead, but \u2026<\/p>\n
The major independent ratings \u2014 Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato\u2019s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics \u2014 have the Florida governor\u2019s race as leaning Republican.<\/p>\n
They see the Senate race more likely to go Republican, rating it either solid or safe.<\/p>\n
Both Jolly and Nixon are behind, but the numbers represent a notable turnaround for the state\u2019s Democrats.<\/p>\n
For a generation, Florida was the premier swing state in the country, one that could go either way in major statewide elections. Ultra-close contests weren\u2019t unusual.<\/p>\n
Florida changed dramatically the years after the COVID pandemic.<\/p>\n
Early in the pandemic, Gov. Ron DeSantis went along with many of the coronavirus restrictions recommended by public health experts. He changed course, lifting the rules before many other states and aggressively marketed what he called \u201cthe free state of Florida.\u201d The people who then flowed to Florida were much more Republican than the transplants who migrated to Florida in the later part of the last century.<\/p>\n
When President Donald Trump won the state in 2020, as he was losing his bid for reelection, that year\u2019s 3-point victory was hailed as a \u201cFlorida landslide,\u201d which is how people in the political world described anything greater than 1 point in a statewide election.<\/p>\n
By 2024, it was so solidly Republican that in 2024, neither Trump nor the Democratic nominee, then-Vice President Kamala Harris, devoted time or significant money to competing in the state.<\/p>\n
There are currently 1.55 million more registered Republicans than Democrats in Florida. In November 2020, there were 134,000 more Democrats than Republicans registered to vote in Florida.<\/p>\n
Wagner described the numbers as a \u201chuge registration advantage that the Republicans have.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cThis state has become more Republican over the years, so a Democratic candidate to win has to be a candidate who can attract voters across the partisan universe,\u201d he said. That means picking up a lot of no party affiliation\/independent voters and some more moderate Republican voters.<\/p>\n
Midterm elections are often bad for the president\u2019s party, and Trump\u2019s popularity has decreased as voters express dissatisfaction with higher prices for a range of goods, owing in part to Trump-imposed tariffs on imports and higher oil prices because of the war with Iran.<\/p>\n
In the Mason-Dixon poll, 30% of likely voters cited inflation and the cost of living as having the greatest influence on their voting decisions, far ahead of any other issue.<\/p>\n
Among registered voters, which includes people who aren\u2019t likely to vote, Targoz Research survey found 80% said changes in gas prices have affected their regular household spending habits. Its survey also found 44% of registered voters said their financial situation is about the same as it was a year ago, 39% said it is worse and 16% said it is better.<\/p>\n
The polling suggests Florida\u2019s top Republican candidates aren\u2019t doing nearly as well this year as in 2022, the midterms during Joe Biden\u2019s presidency.<\/p>\n
In 2022, DeSantis won reelection with 59.4% of the vote to 40% for his Democratic challenger, Charlie Crist. DeSantis won by 19.4 percentage points.<\/p>\n
In the last midterm election, then-U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio won with 57.7% of the vote to 41.3% for his Democratic challenger, then-U.S. Rep. Val Demings. Rubio defeated Demings by 16.4 percentage points.<\/p>\n
Trump approval<\/p>\n
Trump\u2019s approval is higher among voters in his adopted home state of Florida than it is nationally.<\/p>\n
Two of the recent Florida polls asked voters if they approve or disapprove of Trump\u2019s job performance.<\/p>\n
YouGov reported 46% approved and 54% disapproved.<\/p>\n
In the Mason-Dixon poll, 48% approved and 48% disapproved. Mason-Dixon reported 88% of Democrats disapprove of Trump\u2019s performance and 83% of Republicans approve. Among independents, 36% approve and 55% disapprove of the president\u2019s job performance.<\/p>\n
By contrast, the nationwide average Friday at FiftyPlusOne<\/a> showed Trump\u2019s national approval at 35% and disapproval at 62%.<\/p>\n Among Florida Hispanic likely voters surveyed for Telemundo by Mason-Dixon, 45% approved and 49% disapproved of Trump\u2019s performance.<\/p>\n Donalds-Jolly<\/p>\n Republican Donalds is a member of Congress and former state representative. He once was a Democrat.<\/p>\n Democrat Jolly is a former member of Congress. He was a Republican while in office, broke with the party over Trump and became a no-party affiliation\/independent and ultimately a Democrat.<\/p>\n DeSantis can\u2019t run again because of term limits.<\/p>\n Governor polls of likely voters:<\/p>\n Targoz Market Research for the right-leaning James Madison Institute, released Friday: Donalds, 52%; Jolly 42%; another candidate, 3%; undecided, 3%.<\/p>\n St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics, released Wednesday: Donalds 45%; Jolly 45%; someone else, 3.9%; undecided, 6.9%.<\/p>\n Mason-Dixon for NBC6\/Telemundo, released Tuesday: Donalds, 48%; Jolly, 41%; someone else, 1%; undecided, 10%.<\/p>\n Mason-Dixon for Telemundo poll of Hispanic voters, released Tuesday: Donalds, 48%; Jolly, 43%; someone else 1%; undecided 8%.<\/p>\n YouGov, released Tuesday: Donalds, 47%; Jolly 45%, someone else 1%; undecided 7%.<\/p>\n The St. Pete Polls survey reported that about eight in 10 Democrats and Republicans supported their party\u2019s nominees. Among independents, Jolly led Donalds 49% to 33%.<\/p>\n Mason-Dixon reported almost nine in 10 Democrats and Republicans supported their party\u2019s nominee. Among independents, it reported Jolly led Donalds 47% to 28%.<\/p>\n Campaigns tend to trumpet the polls that contain good news for their candidate, ignore the others, and provide a dose of spin.<\/p>\n A Tuesday release from Donalds about the Mason-Dixon poll included a statement from his chief strategist, Ryan Smith: \u201cThis poll reflects what we are seeing on the ground. Between Byron\u2019s non-stop schedule of campaign events, a field army that\u2019s knocked more than 1.5 million doors, and a laser-focus on making Florida more affordable, Byron is well-positioned to win on November 3rd and keep Florida red.\u201d\n<\/p>\n A Thursday release from Jolly about the St. Pete Polls survey included a statement from senior adviser Mark Riddle. \u201cWhile it has now become the norm for polling to show this race in a dead heat, David\u2019s strategy remains the same it has all cycle \u2014 go everywhere, meet Floridians where they are, and share the change agenda that got us here: housing, healthcare, education, and stopping data centers.<\/p>\n \u201cThe more Floridians learn about David, (running mate) Gwen (Graham), and their platform, the more our coalition and our support will grow.\u201d<\/p>\n Republican Moody was appointed to the U.S. Senate by DeSantis when Rubio resigned to become Trump\u2019s secretary of state. She is a former state attorney general.<\/p>\n Democrat Nixon is a state representative.<\/p>\n Polls of likely voters in the Senate race:<\/p>\n Targoz\/James Madison: Moody, 52%; Nixon, 42%; another candidate, 2%; undecided 4%.<\/p>\n St. Pete Polls\/Florida Politics: Moody, 47%, Nixon, 45%; someone else, 2.3%; undecided 6.0%.<\/p>\n Mason-Dixon\/NBC6\/Telemundo: Moody, 50%; Nixon, 40%; someone else, 2%; undecided, 8%.<\/p>\n Mason-Dixon\/Telemundo poll of Hispanic voters: Moody, 47%; Nixon 40%; someone else, 4%; undecided, 9%.<\/p>\n YouGov: Moody, 49%; Nixon, 44%; someone else, 1%; undecided, 5%.<\/p>\n As in the governor\u2019s race, support for the party nominees in the Mason-Dixon poll was about 90% among Democrats and Republicans. Independents favored Nixon 41% to 35%.<\/p>\n St. Pete Polls reported more than 80% for each of the party\u2019s respective Senate nominees; among independents it said Nixon led Moody, 49% to 36%.<\/p>\n Wagner, who has conducted many public opinion polls in the past, said people shouldn\u2019t pay too much attention to a single poll\u2019s number. Every pollster has different sampling techniques and uses different ways to assess who are likely voters who actually will show up.<\/p>\n Morris said several factors could influence what various polls are showing: Pollsters might not be capturing how enthusiastic Democrats are to vote. It\u2019s also been challenging in recent election cycles to assess the views of Trump supporters because they are less likely to answer surveys.<\/p>\n \u201cThe error could go either way. You should be prepared for the polls to either underestimate Democrats or underestimate Republicans,\u201d he said. \u201cWe really don\u2019t know.\u201d<\/p>\n St. Pete Polls<\/a> for Florida Politics: Surveyed 836 likely Florida voters from Oct. 5-7 through automated phone calls and text. Pollster reports a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.<\/p>\n Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy<\/a> for NBC6 (WTVJ-Ch. 6) and Telemundo Station Group: surveyed 625 registered voters, all of whom said they were likely to vote, from Sept. 28-Oct. 1 by live telephone callers. Pollster reports a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.<\/p>\n Mason-Dixon<\/a> for Telemundo Station Group: surveyed 400 registered Hispanic voters, all of whom said they were likely to vote, from Sept. 28-Oct. 1 by live telephone callers. Pollster reports a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.<\/p>\n![\"Angie](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/tos-l-angie-nixon-aug-17.jpg\")
Angie Nixon, a Democratic state representative, is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterm elections in Florida. (Joe Raedle\/Getty Images)
\nMoody-Nixon<\/p>\n![\"Ashley](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/202604161444MCT_____PHOTO____US-NEWS-FLASENATE-FUNDRAISING-FILEPIC-2-FL_a13dc8-1-1.jpg\")
Ashley Moody, appointed to the U.S. Senate by Gov. Ron DeSantis, is the Republican nominee for election to the job in the 2026 midterm elections. (Carline Jean\/South Florida Sun Sentinel)
\nThe fine print<\/p>\n