TALLAHASSEE \u2014 A\u00a0Black Democrat and a white Republican, both women, are vying to be U.S. Senator from Florida. The governor\u2019s bout has the opposite, and far more unusual, configuration: white male Democrat vs. Black male Republican.<\/p>\n
And that has led to striking if sometimes subtle stylistic and rhetorical differences in how race is playing in these two top-of-the-ticket contests.<\/p>\n
Angie Nixon, a progressive Democrat from urban Jacksonville, faces Ashley Moody, the former state attorney general appointed by Gov. Ron DeSantis to fill out the remainder of Marco Rubio\u2019s senate term.<\/p>\n
In the governors\u2019 race, Byron Donalds, a GOP congressman from mostly white suburban Naples is running against David Jolly, a former Republican congressman turned Democrat from Indian Shores, a beachside community in Pinellas County.<\/p>\n
While Nixon leans into the issues that affect Black voters, Donalds, an early favorite with his endorsement from President Trump, eschewed Black political events and specific issues for most of his campaign, focusing on broader concerns like economic growth and school choice.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s a reflection of a difficult reality for Black candidates, especially in a Southern state, experts say: Progressives may motivate their base by engaging on race, but conservatives risk alienating their core supporters.<\/p>\n
\u201cUsually, when a Black candidate is running for state or national office in a predominantly white environment they downplay race, and don\u2019t talk about race unless they have to,\u201d University of Florida political science professor Sharon Wright Austin said.<\/p>\n
But Donalds seemed to shift that stance in the last few weeks as recent polls show him running neck and neck with Jolly, who has overwhelming support among Black voters even though Donald is the first Black Republican nominee for governor and could become Florida\u2019s first Black Governor.<\/p>\n
Donalds only has 10-14% support among Blacks compared to Jolly\u2019s 76-83% support in various surveys.<\/p>\n
![\"Florida](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/tfl-z-2298710653_267546781_01c298.jpg\")
Florida Democratic gubernatorial candidate David Jolly speaks during a campaign event at the Wynmoor Democratic Club on Monday, Oct. 5, 2026 in Coconut Creek. Jolly is drawing much more support from the Black community than his opponent, Byron Donalds. (Joe Raedle\/Getty Images)<\/p>\n
\u201cDonalds knows that MAGA base may not be enough,\u201d Austin said.<\/p>\n
But, she said, \u201cIf he tries to talk to the Black voters, he will turn off the people in his base.\u201d<\/p>\n
And that is why he mostly sticks to \u201cderacialized issues\u201d like the economy and educational opportunities, she said.<\/p>\n
Donalds also doesn\u2019t have much support among rural white Republican voters, especially in the more \u201cDixie-fied\u201d parts of the state, which at least some observers believe may connect to race.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s easy to assert that \u201cDonalds is suffering some sort of racist electoral penalty \u2026 but kind of hard to prove, at least in advance,\u201d said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Larry Sabato\u2019s Crystal Ball, a weekly political analysis newsletter published by the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.<\/p>\n
\u201cI can totally see Donalds underperforming in North Florida,\u201d said Matt Isbell, a Democratic political consultant who specializes in analyzing voter turnout.<\/p>\n
But North Florida does not determine the outcome of an election the way South Florida does, Isbell said.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf Donalds is to lose it won\u2019t be because of the people in Lafayette County, it will be because moderate suburban Republicans are unhappy with the economy,\u201d Isbell said.<\/p>\n
![\"Florida](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/TOS-L-moody-senate_1400f2-TF_bcbcb5.jpg\")
Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody responds to cheering supporters after Governor Ron DeSantis, left, announced her appointment as U.S. senator to replace Marco Rubio, during a press conference at the Rosen Plaza Hotel in Orlando, Fla., Thursday, Jan. 16, 2025. Polls show Moody well in front of Democrat Angie Nixon in her bid to be elected to the post. (Joe Burbank\/Orlando Sentinel)<\/p>\n