Nick Martinez Over 3.5 Hits Allowed (+115):<\/a> There\u2019s some worry about how long Martinez will be in this game, but the veteran surrendered the third-most batted ball events of any pitcher this season (584). He doesn\u2019t walk anyone. He doesn\u2019t strike anyone out. The ball will be in play very often. Martinez also sports a 16th percentile opponent expected batting average (.263).<\/p>\nRays vs. Guardians prediction, preview<\/p>\n
I don\u2019t want to take anything away from Nick Martinez, who was deservingly named an All-Star this season, but let\u2019s just say he\u2019s not the type of pitcher I gravitate towards. The 36-year-old managed a 3.10 ERA across 180.0 innings during the regular season, but did so with just a second percentile whiff rate (17.4%) and a fourth percentile strikeout rate (15.1%). Despite this, Martinez was somehow able to register an 81.6% strand rate, thanks primarily to a .202 opponent BABIP with runners in scoring position. Martinez is good at inducing soft contact, and he helps his overall profile with a 100th percentile walk rate (3.6%), but that formula is simply not a sustainable way to live \u2014 especially in the playoffs. I suspect Kevin Cash agrees, which is why Griffin Jax got the nod over Martinez in Game 3.<\/p>\n
In any case, I wouldn\u2019t expect Martinez to pitch too deep into Game 4. Not only does Tampa need a win to even up this series, and therefore will be more likely to turn to its bullpen early; but Martinez\u2019s numbers fall off a cliff the third time he sees a lineup. In fact, the veteran sported an ugly 5.35 ERA after the first 18 batters faced in 2026, with opponents hitting well over .300 within the split. Cleveland\u2019s hitters aren\u2019t exactly the most frightening collection of names in the world, but there\u2019s almost no scenario where Cash is going to let Martinez see the lefties at the top of the Guardians\u2019 order (Steven Kwan, Jose Ramirez and Chase DeLauter) a third time tonight.<\/p>\n
You know who definitely isn\u2019t going to pitch very long? Shawn Armstrong, who will open this one for the Guardians. The more interesting aspect of Cleveland\u2019s pitching plan is who they decide to turn to in a bulk role. Slade Cecconi, Joey Cantillo and Tanner Bibee are all options, and the honest truth of the matter is that all three might get involved in some capacity. To me, Cantillo feels like the best choice, and to be fair, he\u2019s the one that Stephen Vogt has turned to most often so far in the postseason.<\/p>\n
Either way, Game 4 sets up as easily Tampa\u2019s best opportunity to have it\u2019s struggling lineup find its groove again. There\u2019s no Parker Messick. There\u2019s no Gavin Williams. This is where the big names have to start producing. Even with their sweep of the Yankees in the ALDS, the Rays have only managed to slash .197\/.249\/.314 in the postseason. Junior Caminero and Yandy Diaz have combined for just four extra-base hits in their 50 plate appearances, while Jonathan Aranda is hitless in the ALCS to this point. Tampa\u2019s scrappy, and it\u2019ll always wring every ounce of value out of platoon advantages and base running, but the club can not overcome a very similar Guardians team without more from those three individuals. Full stop.<\/p>\n
More on this game <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Update: Friday\u2019s ALCS Game 4 was postponed due to inclement weather. Every postseason, it feels like there\u2019s a…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":430225,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[3820,146483,3817,146484,135,3815,137,136],"class_list":["post-430224","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-tampa","tag-cleveland-guardians","tag-draftkings-sportsbook-insights","tag-mlb","tag-sports-betting-picks","tag-tampa","tag-tampa-bay-rays","tag-tampa-headlines","tag-tampa-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/430224","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=430224"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/430224\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/430225"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=430224"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=430224"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-fl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=430224"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}