Election Day is Tuesday. And so far, 5.1 million people have voted early or by mail.<\/p>\n
Midterm elections typically have a lower turnout than presidential cycles. In the last one, four years ago, nearly 7.8 million people voted, according to the Florida Division of Elections.<\/p>\n
This year\u2019s numbers are on track to surpass the 2022 election.<\/p>\n
Sean Freeder is an associate professor at the University of North Florida and the faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL).<\/p>\n
He said early voting numbers can predict higher numbers later, but people may also be adjusting to having multiple weeks to vote. Still, he anticipates a \u201chigh turnout election,\u201d based on trends they\u2019ve tracked over the past decade.<\/p>\n
And he thinks a lot of this year\u2019s high turnout is driven by President Donald Trump.<\/p>\n
\u201cI do think that one, when you raise the stakes, people are more likely to turn out in midterms, and two, people turn out in higher rates in presidential elections because the president\u2019s on the ballot \u2013 that\u2019s what people really tend to care about,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Of course, Trump is not on this ballot. But many people are voting as if he were. And Freeder said that\u2019s typical in midterm elections.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe talk about a midterm curse in political science where \u2013 just tends to be the case over the past 40 or 50 years \u2013 your party wins the presidency. Two years later, like a pendulum swinging back and forth, you can pretty much predict that party is going to have a tough run of it in that following midterm,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Top issues vary by age<\/p>\n
We asked people what\u2019s driving their votes this November. For most Democrats, at least one of three topics came up: affordability, the Iran war and corruption.<\/p>\n
For Republicans, responses varied by age.<\/p>\n
Michael Fusella, a recent University of South Florida graduate and former president of the College Republicans at USF club, said affordability and immigration are some of his top issues.<\/p>\n
\u201cAnd then foreign policy as well, that\u2019s another very important one to me,\u201d he said. \u201cEspecially being intertwined in the Iran war. Not very good. I don\u2019t like to see that at all. Wasn\u2019t promised that, and (I) feel quite betrayed by that foreign policy blunder that Trump created.\u201d<\/p>\n
But Laura Casati, who lives in Tallahassee and works with horses, said she thought the war in Iran was needed and that higher fuel prices aren\u2019t an issue.<\/p>\n
\u201cI\u2019ve been through high gas prices before. I am a hard worker. I must work for a living, and so what? Stop whining. It\u2019s gonna change,\u201d she said. \u201cIt\u2019s going to change. It\u2019s gonna be amazing. And Trump is very aware of how to restore our oil reserves. Ultimately, I\u2019m aware of the oil markets and how it can fluctuate.\u201d<\/p>\n
Freeder said the disconnect between the two is something he\u2019s seeing more of.<\/p>\n
\u201cYou really do see this age-based break,\u201d he said. \u201cOlder voters seem much more willing to stick with Trump, be less disappointed, provide more excuses for why things might be going wrong, and you know this is not really a break from history. Younger people are just much more deeply dissatisfied with the way things are, and so I think they feel it, they\u2019re not used to being disappointed because they\u2019re so young and they\u2019re voting, so at their first disappointment, they\u2019re more willing to break with the party.\u201d<\/p>\n
What\u2019s driving your vote?<\/p>\n
Freeder said it\u2019s similar for some Democrats, too.<\/p>\n
Like Lynn Miller, a Democrat who lives in a retirement community in Ocala.<\/p>\n
\u201cPrimarily, it\u2019s the corruption from above, tearing down the White House, starting a war in Iran,\u201d she said. \u201cPeople here (are) paying $5, $6 for gas, they\u2019re cutting Medicaid, Medicare is being impacted, but it really boils down to corruption, in my opinion.\u201d<\/p>\n
Daniel Lack also lives in a retirement community in Ocala. He said the one issue driving his vote \u201cis the survival of our democracy.\u201d<\/p>\n
Youshay Wasim is a Democrat in Brandon. He said he\u2019s watching the Senate race \u201cbecause that will decide whether we want accountability or we just want continued corruption.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cI want to see corruption being handled and I want to see the cost of living go down and I only see one side attempting that right now,\u201d he said. \u201cI really want Angie Nixon to win because you know the Senate (has) a lot of power over investigations, and I want some things done in that regard. But she also has plans, and I\u2019m excited about those plans because the other side has no plans.\u201d<\/p>\n
The DSA divide<\/p>\n
Fusella said he abstained from voting in the governor\u2019s race but couldn\u2019t bring himself to vote for Angie Nixon for U.S. Senate because of her alignment with the Democratic Socialist movement. Other Republicans have voiced similar concerns.<\/p>\n