For a little while on Saturday afternoon, it looked as though several College Football Playoff contenders were about to get bounced, and the race could clear up a bit.<\/p>\n
Heading into the fourth quarter of the games that kicked off at 3:30 p.m. ET, No. 11 Oklahoma, No. 16 Georgia Tech and No. 17 USC were all losing. For OU and USC, a third loss would have meant virtual elimination.<\/p>\n
Instead, all three came back to win, with the Sooners taking down Alabama, the Yellow Jackets dodging an upset at Boston College and the Trojans toughing one out against Iowa.<\/p>\n
A few weeks ago, we pondered the possibility of a 9-3 team making the 12-team CFP field. What we learned about the Playoff in Week 12 is we\u2019re now looking at probably more than enough 10-win teams to fill the bracket. And Texas won\u2019t be one of them.<\/p>\n
Irish closing in. Miami shut out?<\/p>\n
Marcus Freeman has already lost multiple games in his Notre Dame tenure with his team as a multiple-touchdown favorite (hello, Northern Illinois), so surely he doesn\u2019t want to hear any of this, but it looks like the ninth-ranked Fighting Irish might have unofficially clinched a Playoff spot against Pitt on Saturday.<\/p>\n
Jeremiyah Love and the Irish (8-2) had no issue with the Panthers<\/a> and only have games remaining against Syracuse at home next week and at Stanford on Thanksgiving weekend. The Orange and Cardinal are a combined 6-14 and with three ACC victories.<\/p>\n ALL YOU NEED IS LOVE\u2618\ufe0f<\/p>\n THERE. HE. GOES. #GoIrish<\/a>\u2618\ufe0f | @JeremiyahLove<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/C2cSTYLo2N<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Notre Dame Football (@NDFootball) November 15, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n For a Notre Dame team that has won eight straight games by an average of 26 points since starting 0-2 against Miami and Texas A&M, getting to 10-2 shouldn\u2019t be a heavy lift. And since the Irish are already in CFP position, they should at least stay there, right?<\/p>\n Austin Mock\u2019s projections<\/a> have Notre Dame\u2019s odds to make the Playoff at 97 percent.<\/p>\n Well, about that.<\/p>\n The Miami question is still out there. You might remember the Hurricanes (8-2) beat the Irish by three points at home to start the season. Miami fans most certainly do. The Canes picked the worst possible time to lose two games, right before the committee started ranking teams.<\/p>\n Those two losses by a combined nine points to Louisville (in overtime) and SMU put Miami way behind Notre Dame to start, No. 9 to No. 18 in favor of the Irish in the first committee rankings. The Canes moved up three spots last week, though burying NC State 41-7 might not lead to much improvement this week since most of the teams directly ahead of them either won or didn\u2019t play.<\/p>\n Oklahoma\u2019s victory against Alabama was especially problematic for Miami\u2019s at-large hopes.<\/p>\n Back to Notre Dame. The way it works with the selection committee is that head-to-head results are something of a tiebreaker. The committee judges teams in small groups, and if teams are close, the result of a game between the two is generally supposed to rule the day.<\/p>\n So far, the committee has not deemed Miami and Notre Dame to be close enough to break a tie with the head-to-head. When does that change? Miami doesn\u2019t exactly have the toughest schedule (road trips to Virginia Tech and Pitt), which works against teams trying to gain ground.<\/p>\n By the time the season ends, Miami and Notre Dame will have played four common opponents, NC State, Syracuse, Pitt and Stanford. The committee looks at common opponents, but if each team wins, that\u2019s probably not enough to be a deciding factor. For the record, Notre Dame beat NC State 36-7.<\/p>\n Miami needs more performances like Saturday\u2019s against NC State to have a chance.<\/p>\n But maybe the selection committee has made up its mind on the Miami-Notre Dame question, never to be addressed again.<\/p>\n The projections think so. Mock\u2019s model has Miami with a seven percent chance to make the CFP, but the model is also projecting another regular-season loss for the Hurricanes. If they get to 10-2, those odds jump to 25 percent.<\/p>\n Making things even tougher for the Hurricanes is their place in the ACC standings. They still sit behind four teams with one loss and are going to need a lot of help to even have a chance at reaching the league title game and getting an opportunity to be one of the five highest-ranked conference champions in the field.<\/p>\n The ACC can dream of getting two bids, but right now it looks very much like a conference worthy of only one. And the best-case scenario for the ACC would be Miami being that one. The Hurricanes are the most talented team in the league and the one that has the best chance of winning a game or two against CFP-caliber foes.<\/p>\n Instead, what seems more likely: Miami will be on the cusp of an at-large bid, ranked in the committee\u2019s final top 12 and technically in position to make the CFP, but end up out while a lower-ranked ACC team wins the league\u2019s championship and gets in.<\/p>\n B1G West Coast<\/p>\n No. 17 USC wiped out a 21-7 first-half deficit and shut out No. 21 Iowa in the second half<\/a> to set up a huge game next week at No. 8 Oregon (9-1).<\/p>\n The Trojans (8-2) and Ducks play for the first time as Big Ten rivals after decades of squaring off in the Pac-12. Oregon goes into the game with an 82 percent chance to make the Playoff. USC is at 26 percent.<\/p>\n For weeks, we\u2019ve been saying the Ducks could do the Big Ten a favor by taking an L in one of their tough November games to pull another conference-mate into the mix for an at-large bid.<\/p>\n That\u2019s probably true, but Oklahoma\u2019s upset of Alabama breathed life into the Sooners and put the SEC very much in play for five CFP teams.<\/p>\n We just discussed Miami and Notre Dame both charging toward 10-2.<\/p>\n If USC beats Oregon and both finish 10-2, instead of that resulting in four Big Ten teams getting in, could it mean just two \u2014 No. 1 Ohio State (10-0) and No. 2 Indiana (11-0) \u2014 instead?<\/p>\n Let\u2019s play this out.<\/p>\n There is no way to fit five 10-win SEC teams, four 10-win Big Ten teams and Notre Dame into the field. Barring upsets down the stretch, the SEC could have Texas A&M (12-0), Georgia (11-1), Alabama (10-2), Ole Miss (11-1) and Oklahoma (10-2) with spots all but secured before championship weekend.<\/p>\n If USC beats Oregon, that puts the Ducks in the danger zone, and the committee has already dinged them a little, ranking them ninth in the first rankings and moving them up just a spot in the second.<\/p>\n It\u2019ll be interesting to see when Tuesday\u2019s rankings land, how far Bama falls and Oklahoma rises, and where the Ducks sit relative to each.<\/p>\n It\u2019s been easy for the committee to wipe Alabama\u2019s opening loss at Florida State from its collective memory because the Tide have been rolling through one of the toughest schedules in the country since.<\/p>\n Now that Alabama has lost again, it might be time to reassess that performance against Florida State.<\/p>\n Still, that\u2019s potentially a lot of solid SEC resumes. Now bring in Notre Dame, which beat USC, and Miami, which beat Notre Dame.<\/p>\n Suddenly, the Big Ten now has to be on guard for what happens in the Big 12, where No. 6 Texas Tech is solidifying an at-large spot and No. 12 BYU (9-1) remains its most likely title game foe. The committee also seems smitten with No. 13 Utah (8-2), which continues to pummel opponents not named Texas Tech or BYU.<\/p>\n What\u2019s the old saying about a bird in the hand being better than two in the bush? For the Big Ten, Oregon finishing 11-1, all but assuring the league of three top-eight teams, is probably better than hoping for the best with both the Ducks and Trojans at 10-2.<\/p>\n Five more things you need to know right now about the CFP<\/p>\n \u2022 Georgia Tech almost pulled the ultimate ACC chaos move. The Yellow Jackets fell behind Boston College, which has yet to beat an FBS team, by 11 late in the third quarter before winning 36-34 on a field goal in the closing seconds. Tech can now clinch a spot in the ACC title game by beating Pitt next week. If Haynes King and company can pull off the upset against Georgia that eluded them last year, we can start talking at-large bid possibilities. Remember, last year when SMU lost the ACC title game and still made the CFP as an at-large, it went into the game 11-1 and ranked No. 8. Georgia Tech is the only ACC team in position to do something similar.<\/p>\n All ice in the veins from @Birrskiii<\/a> \ud83e\uddca#StingEm<\/a> \ud83d\udc1d pic.twitter.com\/BKqcpiF0Ix<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Georgia Tech Football (@GeorgiaTechFB) November 16, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n \u2022 It\u2019s hard to quit Texas. The Longhorns got rolled by Georgia<\/a> in the second half and are now 7-3, with Arkansas and No. 3 Texas A&M left on the schedule. The Aggies (10-0) remained unbeaten after recording the biggest comeback in school history<\/a> against South Carolina, but still will likely need to beat their rivals to earn a spot in the SEC title game. Conceivably, if Texas beats A&M, it could make a case as a 9-3 Playoff team. The fact is, Texas has rarely looked like one of the top 12 teams in the country. Even if the Horns win out, there should be plenty of better options.<\/p>\n