For much of the season, it\u2019s seemed as if coaching carousel narratives have overshadowed the action on the field. This week, we\u2019re finally getting down to the good stuff with the College Football Playoff race.<\/p>\n
So of course, how perfectly 2025 it is that one of the coaches for one of the contenders might leave for one of the schools that already fired its coach.<\/p>\n
I still want to talk Playoff.<\/p>\n
(Note: Submitted questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity.)<\/p>\n
There is a vociferous debate about Miami and Notre Dame\u2019s relative position in the polls, as both teams are 8-2 at this point. ND fans argue that A) the Week 1 loss to Miami in the first game is less important than recent results, and B) that ND\u2019s losses to Miami and Texas A&M are better than Miami\u2019s losses to SMU and Louisville. However, ND can\u2019t point to a statement win on their resume like Miami has over ND. Is it fair to discount a win\/loss early in the season? They all count, right? \u2014 Stephen, Marietta, Ga.<\/p>\n
All the games count, which both sides are justified in saying. Miami fans are understandably screaming, \u201cHello?! Did you forget we played each other in the first game?\u201d All 12 games should count. And Notre Dame fans are saying, we agree, all 12 games should count \u2014 and that one was just one of them.<\/p>\n
I\u2019ve always felt head-to-head results matter, but they come in all shapes and sizes. Going to another team\u2019s stadium and beating them carries more weight with me than beating them at home. Losing on a last-second field goal is a lot more excusable than losing by 21. And yes, timing matters. Common sense tells us a game played in November is a lot more reflective of the teams we\u2019ll be seeing in the Playoff than a game played in August, like Notre Dame-Miami.<\/p>\n
If the committee thinks, based on 12 games of data, that Miami is a better team than Notre Dame, then by all means, rank them in that order. But if everything else is telling you the Irish are the better team, then don\u2019t contort the rankings just to fit them around a game played nearly three months ago, in which the home team won by three points on a last-minute field goal. Home-field advantage alone is worth three points.<\/p>\n
My own opinion, having watched both of these teams over the course of the season, is that Notre Dame has rounded into a team capable of getting back to the national championship game. Quarterback CJ Carr is the nation\u2019s third-rated passer, trailing only Ohio State\u2019s Julian Sayin and Indiana\u2019s Fernando Mendoza. Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price form a lethal backfield tandem. And the Irish defense has gotten\u00a0much better over the last two months.<\/p>\n
Jekyll and Hyde Miami seems more like a talented but underachieving college basketball team that squeezes its way into the NCAA Tournament and loses in the first round. Mostly because I don\u2019t trust Carson Beck to be consistent and avoid turnovers. But Miami looked great last week against NC State, and I may revise my opinion if they win these next two road games against Virginia Tech and Pitt.<\/p>\n
If the SEC gets six teams into the CFP, would that be the end of this version of the CFP? Regardless of whether you view it as warranted, I have to imagine that the Big Ten, ACC and Big 12 would cry bloody murder. \u2014 Christopher D.<\/p>\n
They might, but I\u2019m not sure that would accomplish anything. This is the last year of the original 12-year CFP contract, when all conferences had to approve any changes. Next year begins the new deal, where the Big Ten and SEC have all the authority. And right now, they don\u2019t agree on much of anything<\/a>. Particularly Playoff formats.<\/p>\n While Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti was busy trying to convince us that fans want to see 8-4 teams in play-in games, Greg Sankey convinced his colleagues to allow a change to the selection committee metrics to better reward strength of schedule \u2014 which better rewards the SEC.<\/p>\n Beginning in 2025, not 2026 or later.<\/p>\n But that\u2019s not the main reason six bids are on the table this year. It\u2019s more so what\u2019s going on in the other leagues. The Big Ten is top-heavy and may end up with only three realistic candidates: Ohio State, Indiana and Oregon. The Big 12 has no big nonconference wins to prop up an at-large candidate<\/a> besides Texas Tech. The ACC is atrocious, so it\u2019s hard to argue it merits two bids, though Miami may still rise.<\/p>\n And then there\u2019s Notre Dame, which is effectively the swing state of this year\u2019s field. It will be hard for the committee to justify dropping the Irish out of an at-large field they\u2019ve been part of since the first rankings, unless Notre Dame loses to Syracuse or Stanford.<\/p>\n But if the Irish choke against a three-win team, then the seas might part. Here\u2019s how:<\/p>\n Eight teams \u2014 Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, Georgia, Texas Tech, Ole Miss, Oregon and Oklahoma \u2014 comfortably make it with or without a conference title. The ACC champion (we\u2019ll say Virginia) and Group of 5 champion (we\u2019ll say North Texas) make it 10.<\/p>\n Alabama finishes with three, possibly four Top 25 wins (at Georgia, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, possibly at Missouri). No other at-large candidate can touch that resume. Alabama is the 11th team, fifth from the SEC.<\/p>\n BYU loses at Cincinnati this week and Miami loses at Pittsburgh next week. No at-larges for them.<\/p>\n Vanderbilt beats Tennessee and finishes 10-2. Utah finishes either 10-2 or, if it gets into the Big 12 title game and loses, 10-3. They square off for the last at-large berth.<\/p>\n The Commodores\u2019 best wins would be against Missouri and Tennessee, both 8-4 in this scenario. Utah\u2019s would be against 9-3 or 8-4 Cincinnati and Arizona State. Neither team has a bad loss. That\u2019s where Sankey\u2019s metrics come in. The committee doesn\u2019t publish its strength-of-record ratings, but ESPN\u2019s has Vanderbilt No. 11, Utah No. 18.<\/p>\n The Commodores grab the 12th berth, the sixth from the SEC. Unless Texas beats Texas A&M, in which case the 9-3 Longhorns, now holding three top-15 wins \u2014 including one head-to-head over the Commodores \u2014 take their place.<\/p>\n Almost all of those results will have occurred one way or the other by the time Notre Dame kicks off at Stanford on Nov. 29 at 10 p.m. ET. In which case, America, you may have a tough decision. Do you root for the 4-7 or 3-8 Cardinal to ruin the Irish\u2019s season, or do you root for Notre Dame to stave off the SEC Apocalypse?<\/p>\n James Franklin to Virginia Tech<\/a>! Does that make them an eight- to nine-win team overnight in a weak ACC? Or even instant conference championship contenders \u2014 Jeff H.<\/p>\n Hard to say without yet knowing a single member of his first roster, but I\u2019m bullish on his chances<\/a>, if not in Year 1, then shortly thereafter. It\u2019s one of those rare hires that makes perfect sense for both parties.<\/p>\n Virginia Tech has always had a lot going for it in the ACC, where Frank Beamer led the Hokies to four conference championships during the school\u2019s first seven years in the league. It is one of the ACC\u2019s few true \u201cfootball schools,\u201d along with Clemson, Florida State and Miami, with one of the best home atmospheres<\/a> in the sport. It\u2019s in a talent-rich state. And it has produced a who\u2019s who of NFL alums. But the program wasn\u2019t prepared for life after Beamer, and it compounded that with two underwhelming hires in Justin Fuente and Brent Pry.<\/p>\n Which makes this the perfect time to bring in a high-profile coach who has won at a high level. Franklin arrives just as the university approved a four-year, $229 million investment in athletics that should put it at or near the top of the ACC in resources. And at a time when the ACC could not be more wide open, what with two of its marquee programs, Clemson and Florida State, knee-deep in existential crises.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, Franklin gets a fresh start at a place where the expectations<\/a> aren\u2019t as suffocating as Penn State\u2019s. I\u2019m old enough to remember when Franklin was the \u201cfun\u201d guy at Vanderbilt, living his best life winning nine games a year. At Penn State the last few seasons, he often looked miserable winning 11 games. The weight of coming close but not quite to the pinnacle year after year seemed to beat him down.<\/p>\n But he\u2019s not guaranteed success by any means. I\u2019ve seen plenty of big-name coaches whose second (or third) acts wound up a disappointment. See: Mark Richt at Miami, Chip Kelly at UCLA, Kevin Sumlin at Arizona, Gus Malzahn at UCF, and most recently, Hugh Freeze at Auburn.<\/p>\n