EDITOR’S NOTE\/CORRECTION: An earlier version of this article incorrectly stated a burn ban was reenacted Monday in Lee County. The Lee Board of County Commissioner earlier this year enacted a ban against most outdoor burning. The ban was in effect from April 15 until revoked on June 3. No new ban has been enacted this year.<\/p>\n
The drought with a stranglehold on Southwest Florida since February \u2014 unsated by the fourth-driest summer rainy season in state history \u2014 has returned more muscular than before.<\/p>\n
Sarasota, Manatee, Hardee, and DeSoto are among the 18 counties statewide with active burn bans, which is nearly twice as many as prior to the short respite brought by the feeble summer shower season.<\/p>\n
In November alone, more than 1.7 million people living in counties along or near Southwest Florida\u2019s Gulf Coast were plunged back into moderate drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, as worsening drought creeps south from the epicenter in the Panhandle.<\/p>\n
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Tom Bayles\/U.S.Drought Monitor\/NOAA<\/p>\n
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WGCU<\/p>\n
A side-by-side comparison of last month’s spread of the reinvigorated drought that’s been plauging the state since February<\/p>\n
Nearly the entire Gulf Coast of Florida is drought-stricken, with pockets deemed \u201cextreme\u201d \u2013 the driest of drought \u2013\u00a0in the Tallahassee region extending south to the moderate drought now blanketing nearly all of Southwest Florida.<\/p>\n
Drought often precedes wildfire.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe need to be prepared, especially this season, just because of the drought,\u201d said Jesse Lavendar, a spokesman for the Florida Forest Service\u2019s District 17 that includes Lee County. \u201cPeople that have experienced wildfires before, knowing the conditions going forward, there has been a heightened level of awareness.\u201d<\/p>\n
He said the forest service is always prepared to fight wildland fire, which can happen any month in Florida but is most likely during the late-winter through spring dry season. <\/p>\n
The agency has ramped up that preparedness now, due to the reinvigorated drought and the \u201clackluster precipitation\u201d forecast for early next year. Lavender said forecasts of higher-than-normal temperatures and lower-than normal rainfall heading into wildfire season look to be accurate.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe’re always prepared, but yeah, as far as I think the focus should be on the drought,\u201d Lavender said.<\/p>\n
The ingredients for a challenging wildfire season in 2026 are in place, but does that mean it will happen?<\/p>\n
\u201cThere really is no crystal ball on this.\u201d<\/p>\n
Drought precedes wildfire<\/p>\n
The drought gripping Southwest Florida started in February and worsened considerably in May, June and July after a heat dome settled in over the area trapping hot air at the surface. <\/p>\n
Moisture in the top layers of soil evaporated, high temperature records were set throughout the lower portion of the state, and the drought blossomed into the worst in 20 years.<\/p>\n
NOAA reported July in Fort Myers was the 15th driest July on record\u00a0with 5 inches of rain instead of the normal 9.38 inches.<\/p>\n
And then came July 27. <\/p>\n
Fort Myers tied its all-time daily high temperature of 97\u00b0 degrees July 27.\u200b <\/p>\n
Naples set a single day high of 98 degrees on July 27. \u200b<\/p>\n
Tampa International Airport reached 100 degrees on July 27, its all-time high since records began in 1890.\u200b<\/p>\n
The heatwave from May to July set the highest number of daily high-temperature records \u2014 55 \u2014 due to the extremes related to the heat dome.<\/p>\n
Warmest days do not equate with \u201call\u2011time driest year\u201d records, but they clearly place 2025 among the\u00a0drier years in Southwest Florida.<\/p>\n
More\/related stories<\/p>\n
Experts are not in agreement as to when the drought will end in large part due to global warming-inspired unpredictability in weather and regional climate patterns, but there is near-consensus it won\u2019t happen in the short-term.<\/p>\n
What is agreed upon is that historical data, like that from the National Interagency Fire Center, shows that during severe drought years, both the frequency and acreage of wildfires increase significantly following drought periods when temperature records are shattered or nearly so. \u200b<\/p>\n
Drought periods cause vegetation and soil to become extremely dry and more flammable, making wildfires more likely and more intense after a lightning bolt, arson, or when the hot underside of a car rolls over high grass.<\/p>\n
Drought is a slow-moving, often large, type of climate phenomenon that takes time to develop and time to fade away with enough rainfall.<\/p>\n
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Meteorologist Noah Bergren said the current drought created the third-driest conditions during a November statewide, and many places along the Gulf coast are more than a foot of rain below average this year. <\/p>\n
Last month was the first time anywhere in Florida – the Tallahassee region \u2013 was upgraded to the highest level of dryness during November by the U.S. Drought Monitor.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis is pretty rare drought for Florida so early in the dry season,\u201d Bergren, with FOX 35 in Orlando, said. \u201cThis could cause a very early start to wildfire and brush fire season, and water shortages in early 2026 if no notable rain comes soon state-wide.\u201d<\/p>\n
Wildfire necessary<\/p>\n
Nearly half of Florida is covered in forests that require fire to thrive.<\/p>\n
Naturally ignited wildland blazes, such as lightning striking a tree, burns out dead underbrush, fallen trees, and regenerates the soil to allow for a fresh canvas on the forest floor a freshy canvas.<\/p>\n
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Florida Dept. of Emergency Mgnt<\/p>\n
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WGCU<\/p>\n
Lightning is a leading natural cause of wildfires<\/p>\n
Sand pine\u2019s seed-filled cones are sealed by a resin that needs wildfire to heat the mastic, which allows the cones to open and drop large amounts of seeds onto freshly burned, competition\u2011free soil.<\/p>\n
The downside to such amazing natural design is that the state\u2019s forests are never far from being ready to burn.<\/p>\n
As the state\u2019s population grows, more communities are built aside or within forests \u2013 what wildland firefighters call the \u201cwildland urban interface.\u201d Those houses built along or within wooded areas with an affinity for wildfire are always at risk.<\/p>\n
\u201cFlorida has a year-round fire season with the most active part taking place from April to July,\u201d the Florida Division of Emergency Management wrote in its hazard mitigation plan \u201cThe majority of wildfires in Florida (70-80 percent) are caused by humans from arson or escaped debris burning (and) many of these fires occur within one mile of the wildland urban interface.\u201d<\/p>\n
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Florida Forest Service<\/p>\n
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WGCU<\/p>\n
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index, a measure of the dryness of the soil, shows much of Southwest Florida is above the 500 marks that usually triggers an outdoor burn ban<\/p>\n
The Florida Forest Service and similar agencies have self-help tools online that can help reduce the chances of damage to a home during a catastrophic wildfire. Tips including how to create a \u201cdefensible space\u201d around a house in a woodsy area, burning yard waste in a safe manner when allowed, and the merits of prescribed burning. <\/p>\n
Details of those and other wildfire stay-safe tactics can be found here<\/a>.<\/p>\n The Florida Forest Service monitors drought and fire conditions<\/a> daily across all 67 counties and adjusts its operations accordingly to what local weather conditions produce.<\/p>\n Environmental reporting for WGCU is funded in part by\u00a0VoLo Foundation<\/a>, a nonprofit with a mission to accelerate change and global impact by supporting science-based climate solutions, enhancing education, and improving health.<\/p>\n Sign up for WGCU’s monthly environmental newsletter, the\u00a0Green Flash<\/a>, today.<\/p>\n