Dec. 13, 2025, 11:44 a.m. ET<\/p>\n
The Tampa Bay Lightning<\/a> (18-11-2) and New York Islanders<\/a> (18-11-3) meet Saturday at UBS Arena in Elmont, New York. Puck drop is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s<\/a> NHL odds around the Lightning vs. Islanders and make our expert NHL picks and predictions<\/a>.<\/p>\n Season series: Islanders lead 2-0<\/p>\n The Lightning rolled to an 8-4 win in New Jersey last time out Thursday, cashing as moderate favorites (-140) with the Over (5.5) hitting. G Jonas Johansson stopped 33 of 37 shots, while RW Oliver Bjorkstrand led the way with 2 goals and 3 points. RW Nikita Kucherov was good for 4 assists, and C Jake Guentzel chipped in with a goal and 3 points.<\/p>\n The Lightning were shut out 2-0 in consecutive games Dec. 6-8, including a setback at home against the Islanders. However, Tampa Bay has erupted for 14 goals in 2 wins since. G Andrei Vasilevskiy remains sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and D Victor Hedman (elbow) is out with an elbow issue.<\/p>\n The Islanders posted a 5-2 win over the Anaheim Ducks as light favorites (-120) as the Over (6.5) cashed. LW Anders Lee notched 2 goals and 2 assists in the victory. New York is 5-1-0 in the past 6 games, while the Over has a slight 3-2 edge in the previous 5 outings.<\/p>\n Watch the NHL on Fubo!<\/a>Lightning at Islanders odds<\/p>\n Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook<\/a>; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub<\/a> for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:44 a.m. ET.<\/p>\n Moneyline (ML): Lightning -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Islanders +105 (bet $100 to win $105)Puck line (PL)\/Against the spread (ATS): Lightning -1.5 (+185) | Islanders +1.5 (-225)Over\/Under (O\/U): 6 (O: +100 | U: -120)Lightning at Islanders projected goalies<\/p>\n Jonas Johansson (7-5-0, 2.65 GAA, .905 SV%) vs.\u00a0Ilya Sorokin (11-8-2, 2.53 GAA, .910 SV%, 3 SO)<\/p>\n Johansson has done a decent job in place of the injured Vasilevskiy, going 2-3-0 with a 2.26 GAA and .920 SV% in 5 starts in December. He has allowed just a single goal in 3 of his past 4 starts, but he has 2 losses because the team provided zero goals of offensive support.<\/p>\n Sorokin has been on fire in December, going 4-0-0 with a 1.96 GAA and .942 SV% with a shutout. He allowed 4 goals on 37 shots in a 5-4 shootout victory over the visiting Golden Knights Tuesday. He allowed a goal on 31 shots in a 2-1 victory over the Lightning on Dec. 2.<\/p>\n Lightning at Islanders picks and predictionsPrediction<\/p>\n Islanders 3, Lightning 2<\/p>\n ISLANDERS (+105) are a solid play as home underdogs against the Lightning.<\/p>\n We have 2 teams playing very good hockey lately, so something’s gotta give. This is the third meeting in December, and New York has scratched out 2 low-scoring wins, both in Elmont and in Tampa. The Isles just seem to have the number of the Lightning.<\/p>\n New York +1.5 (-225) is just too expensive, if you cannot take it straight up, and need some insurance.<\/p>\n Even as part of a multi-leg parlay, it isn’t a good value playing the Islanders. If you like the Isles, just take them straight up.<\/p>\n AVOID.<\/p>\n BACK UNDER 6 (-120).<\/p>\n This might be the best play on the board, given the way Johansson — and especially Sorokin — have been playing in December.<\/p>\n These teams have met twice since Dec. 2, with a total of just 5 goals scored, or 2.5 goals per game, so what’s going to change, where all of a sudden we get fire-wagon hockey?<\/p>\n For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com<\/a> and BetFTW<\/a>.<\/p>\n Follow @danieledobish<\/a> on\u00a0Twitter\/X.\u00a0Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter\/X<\/a> and like us on Facebook<\/a>.<\/p>\n