Zohran Mamdani continues to lead among the three remaining candidates in the race to be the next New York City mayor but his lead narrows in a head-to-head matchup with Andrew M. Cuomo, according to a poll of likely voters released Monday.
The poll, by AARP and Gotham Polling & Analytics, also showed that voters 50 and above were more likely to be undecided.
Mamdani, a democratic socialist who won the Democratic Party primary in a June upset over the then-favored Cuomo, leads with 43.2% support, according to the poll, which was conducted last Tuesday and Wednesday among a representative sample of 1,040 likely voters in the city’s Nov. 4 election.
Cuomo, who resigned as governor in 2021 over sexual harassment allegations, is running as an independent. He polled at 28.9%, while Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa’s support stood at 19.4%, according to the survey, which also found that 8.4% were undecided or preferred another candidate.
Mayor Eric Adams dropped out of the race last month.
“Cuomo gains support post-Adams withdrawal: Voters who previously supported Adams have mostly shifted to Cuomo, increasing his support, especially among older voters,” wrote Kate Bridges of AARP Research on the AARP website about the poll, which updates one conducted in August.
“If Sliwa exits,” Bridges continued, “Cuomo’s support rises to 40.7%, tightening the race with Mamdani.”
The poll showed Mamdani’s lead would grow slightly, to 44.6%, with 15% undecided. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.
According to the poll, 28% of respondents between the ages of 50 and 64 were undecided, while 49% aged 65 and up were in the same category. The poll found that 4% of those surveyed between the ages of 18 and 34 were undecided. Among people between the ages of 35 and 49, 19% had no firm choice.
“Once again, New York’s older voters are poised to decide this election,” said Beth Finkel, AARP New York state director, in a statement. “Voters age 50 and older make up the vast majority of those still undecided, and as the most reliable voting bloc, they will determine who leads this city. Older New Yorkers are feeling the strain of rising costs and limited housing options and their priorities are clear: affordability, safety, and leadership that restores confidence in New York’s direction. These are issues that matter not only to older adults and to New Yorkers of every generation.”
The campaigns for Mamdani, a state assembly member from Astoria, and Sliwa, a radio host and the founder of the Guardian Angels anti-crime group, did not immediately respond Monday to e-mailed requests for comment from Newsday.
Rich Azzopardi, a Cuomo spokesman, said in an email: “The new AARP-Gotham poll shows exactly where this race is headed: in a head-to-head matchup, Andrew Cuomo (41%) and Zohran Mamdani (45%) are now in a dead heat … As New Yorkers see this reality, they’ll discard the spoiler Curtis Sliwa and rally behind Cuomo to save the city. Voters don’t buy Mamdani’s divisive, extreme politics or believe that a 34-year-old who’s never held a real job is ready to run the greatest city in the world.”
According to a post on X from PoliticoNY reporter Jeff Coltin, John Catsimatidis, the owner of WABC radio — where Sliwa has worked for decades but is currently on leave as he runs for office — has publicly called him to drop out over concerns he would split the vote and “inadvertently” help another candidate.
