The first mayoral general election debate of 2025 on Thursday night saw Zohran Mamdani and Gov. Andrew Cuomo trade ferocious blows, while Curtis Sliwa assailed them both in between complaints of being “marginalized” on the debate stage.
Angelina Katsanis/Pool via REUTERS
A new poll has found that Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani maintains a comfortable double-digit lead over both former Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa in the 2025 mayoral election, although that margin between Mamdani and Cuomo would narrow considerably if Sliwa withdrew from the contest.
The new poll by AARP and Gotham Polling & Analytics found that Mamdani holds a 14-point lead over Cuomo and a 24-point lead over Sliwa with 15 days remaining until the Nov. 4 election.
Mamdani, the clear frontrunner in the mayoral election, currently holds 43.2% support compared to Cuomo’s 28.9% and Sliwa’s 19.4%, with 8.4% of voters still undecided.
However, Mamdani’s lead shrinks considerably in a scenario where Sliwa exits the race before election day, the poll also found.
In that scenario, Mamdani would enjoy support from 44.6% of voters, with Cuomo’s support rocketing to 40.7%, leaving a margin of 3.9% between the two candidates, which falls within the poll’s margin of error.
The poll, conducted by Gotham Polling & Analytics in partnership with AARP between Oct. 14–15, 2025, polled a sample of 1,040 likely general election voters in New York City using text-to-web methodology.
Mamdani’s lead narrows from August poll
The study follows an August poll from AARP/Gotham when Mayor Eric Adams and independent candidate Jim Walden remained in the race. That poll found that Mamdani held an 18-point lead with all candidates in the field and an 11-point lead in a head-to-head contest with Cuomo.
Cuomo has seized on the latest polling data, stating that the recent AARP poll showcases Mamdani’s narrowing lead and a “dead heat” in a two-way contest. Cuomo further asserted that voters would “discard” Sliwa on election day to avoid the “reality” of a Mamdani Administration.
“As New Yorkers see this reality, they’ll discard the spoiler Curtis Sliwa and rally behind Cuomo to save the city. Voters don’t buy Mamdani’s divisive, extreme politics or believe that a 34-year-old who’s never held a real job is ready to run the greatest city in the world,” Cuomo’s campaign said in a statement.
Sliwa stands firm
Republicans and some moderate Democrats have repeatedly called on Sliwa to drop out of the race to give Cuomo the best chance of defeating Mamdani on Nov. 4, but Sliwa has consistently stated that he will not be withdrawing his candidacy.
His campaign spokesperson Daniel Kurzyna said Monday that nothing had changed and that Sliwa would be remaining in the race until the end.
Kurzyna further alleged that the AARP/Gotham poll was skewed heavily in favor of the Cuomo campaign but said the poll still showed a surge in support for Sliwa, who has jumped 3 points since the August AARP poll. He also accused the Cuomo campaign of funding the recent poll.
“This so-called AARP ‘poll’ might as well have been paid for and printed at Cuomo headquarters with his logo on it; it is that obvious,” Kurzyna said in a statement. “Even with questions slanted in his favor, it still confirms what New Yorkers know: Curtis Sliwa’s campaign is surging and our voters are not going anywhere.”
Kurzyna said the majority of Sliwa voters would “not touch Andrew Cuomo with a ten-foot pole” and argued that the Cuomo campaign was showing signs of panic.
“The polls were wrong before and they will be wrong again; Curtis is not dropping out,” Kurzyna added. “Andrew Cuomo already lost, resigned in disgrace to avoid impeachment, and empowered the radical left that gave us Zohran Mamdani; Curtis is running to win and he will win on Nov. 4.”
Mamdani’s campaign, meanwhile, accused Cuomo of seeking a lifeline after “badly” losing the Democratic primary in June. Spokesperson Dora Pekec accused Cuomo of turning to President Donald Trump for help in the upcoming election. Cuomo denied those allegations during last week’s mayoral debate.
“Andrew Cuomo wanted a one-on-one in the primary and he got one – where he got beaten so badly now he’s calling Trump and his billionaire donors for a lifeline,” Pekec said in a statement. “New Yorkers are ready to turn the page on the billionaire-backed politics of the past and elect Zohran Mamdani – which is why he’s leading by double-digits and has an army of 87,000 volunteers and growing.”
Elderly vote key
The AARP poll also stated that undecided voters aged 50 and above will be key to the outcome of the race, with 49% of voters aged 65 and over still undecided ahead of next month’s election.
AARP said 80% of undecided voters are aged 50 and over, with cost of living and cost of health ranking among the top issues for senior undecided voters.
Beth Finkel, AARP New York State Director, said the new poll suggests that older voters are “poised” to decide the upcoming election.
“Voters age 50 and older make up the vast majority of those still undecided, and as the most reliable voting bloc, they will determine who leads this city,” Finkel said in a statement.
“Older New Yorkers are feeling the strain of rising costs and limited housing options and their priorities are clear: affordability, safety, and leadership that restores confidence in New York’s direction. These are issues that matter not only to older adults and to New Yorkers of every generation.”