As the New York Jets enter the 2026 offseason after another rough season, they are in a familiar position: searching for a long-term answer at quarterback.

Last spring, the Jets took a calculated gamble on Justin Fields, signing him to a two-year, $40 million contract, which included $30 million in guaranteed salary, hoping he could be the solution.

Unsurprisingly, though, the experiment didn’t work out.

Now, the Jets are back in the market looking for a quarterback, but with more ammunition than ever.

In April’s NFL draft, New York owns two first-round picks, Nos. 2 and 16 overall, and two second-round selections, Nos. 33 and 44. The organization is also projected to have over $90 million in cap space.

That kind of capital can be franchise-altering. None of it matters, though, if they can’t find the right quarterback.

After Dante Moore’s decision to stay at Oregon for another season, many Jets fans are hoping for the longshot that Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza somehow sneaks past the Las Vegas Raiders at No. 1. Some fans are clinging to pipe dreams of Gang Green pulling off a blockbuster trade for a star like Joe Burrow or Lamar Jackson.

Unfortunately for Jets fans, though, none of those scenarios seems likely at this moment.

There may be another option, however. Following the Miami Dolphins’ decision to fire head coach Mike McDaniel, uncertainty surrounds the future of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, and there is a growing possibility that he could hit the trade market.

Tagovailoa’s career production

Since being selected fifth overall in the 2020 NFL draft, Tagovailoa has produced respectable numbers throughout his professional career.

Over 76 starts, Tagovailoa has led Miami to a 44-32 record while completing 68% of his passes for 18,166 yards and 120 touchdowns against 59 interceptions (96.4 passer rating).

Tagovailoa’s peaks have been high. In 2022, he led the league in passer rating (105.5) and yards per attempt (8.9). The following year, he led the NFL in passing yards (4,264), and in 2024, he led the NFL in completion percentage (72.9%).

When Tagovailoa was healthy and thriving, Miami fielded one of the NFL’s best offenses. In 2023, Tagovailoa led the Dolphins to second in points per game (29.2).

However, Tagovailoa is coming off the roughest year of his career, setting a career-low in QBR (37.2, ranking 26th out of 28 qualifiers) while tossing a career-high 15 interceptions to just 20 touchdowns.

Staying healthy is Tagovailoa’s biggest issue. Since 2022, Tagovailoa has suffered four serious head injuries, severe enough to force him to consider retirement before turning 26.

Throughout his career, Miami made only two playoff appearances, with Tagovailoa starting just one of those games. The Dolphins failed to advance either time.

Tagovailoa’s outlook in Miami

In July 2024, Tagovailoa signed a lucrative four-year, $212.4 million extension with the Dolphins, including $167.2 million guaranteed.

However, things got ugly in 2025. Tagovailoa was benched in favor of sixth-round rookie Quinn Ewers, and now, with McDaniel out as Miami’s head coach and a new general manager coming in, Tagovailoa’s future with the Dolphins is murky.

If Miami trades Tagovailoa this offseason, they will take on $45.2 million in dead money this offseason, per Spotrac. The acquiring team would absorb a $43 million cap hit for the 2026 season, although there would be no guarantees remaining on his deal beyond 2026.

The Jets’ QB plans this offseason

While Justin Fields remains under contract for 2026, it is expected that he and the Jets will part ways this offseason. The Jets can release Fields, although they would only clear $1 million in cap space while taking on $22 million in dead money.

Assuming Fernando Mendoza goes No. 1 overall, it wouldn’t make much sense for the Jets to force a quarterback selection at No. 2 unless they fall in love with a prospect like Alabama’s Ty Simpson.

Regardless of where they take a quarterback in this year’s draft, the team is also expected to add a veteran option this offseason, whether it is through free agency or the trade market.

That is where Tagovailoa’s name could come into the picture.

Tagovailoa’s fit with the Jets

The veteran quarterback market in free agency is far from inspiring. Jacoby Brissett, Marcus Mariota, Kirk Cousins, and Malik Willis headline the group of passers expected to be available this offseason.

If the Jets choose to enter 2026 with a training camp competition between a rookie and a veteran while still prioritizing wins, Tagovailoa would stand out as the most appealing option among that realistic group.

But he would need to be acquired via trade.

What would his trade value be?

For Miami to move Tagovailoa’s lucrative contract, the Dolphins would likely need to attach a day-two or early day-three pick to entice a team to take on the deal.

However, if there are multiple teams willing to take on his $43 million cap hit for the 2026 season, perhaps the Dolphins could convince a team to cough up a late-day-three selection for his services.

Should the Jets look to acquire him?

On the surface, the idea is intriguing.

With few viable bridge options available, Tagovailoa becomes more appealing. He is the type of quarterback who could allow the Jets to realistically compete while a rookie is patiently developed on the bench.

However, there are multiple red flags that should deter the Jets from pursuing their division rival.

The Jets need a cost-effective quarterback who can keep the team competitive. Tagovailoa could keep the Jets respectable next year, but he wouldn’t be cost-effective.

While the Jets are expected to have over $90 million in projected cap space, they can’t afford to pay another quarterback significant money.

Assuming New York moves on from Fields this offseason, the Jets will be dishing out $57M to quarterbacks not on their roster, adding in the $35M still owed to Aaron Rodgers. If the Jets were to trade for the Alabama product ($43 million cap hit), they would be paying a whopping $100 million to three quarterbacks in 2026 alone.

The second issue is Tagovailoa’s injury history. He has started more than 14 games in just one of his six NFL seasons and has a long track record of concussions. Tagovailoa could be one injury away from his career being over. That isn’t the type of guy you want holding the fort down for a young quarterback who needs time to develop.

Finally, it wouldn’t make much sense for the Jets to bring Tagovailoa up to an outdoor stadium in a cold-weather city. Tagovailoa is notoriously poor in cold weather; he is 0-6 when the kickoff temperature is below 40 degrees and 4-14 when it is below 55 degrees.

Tagovailoa is an interesting option on the surface, but numerous factors should convince the Jets to go in a different direction.